
The Theory That Would Not Die
How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy
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Narrado por:
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Laural Merlington
Acerca de esta escucha
Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok.
In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers and listeners, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years - at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information, even breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II, and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA decoding to Homeland Security.
Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, The Theory That Would Not Die is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time.
©2011 Sharon Bertsch McGrayne (P)2012 TantorLos oyentes también disfrutaron...
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Mutants
- On Genetic Variety and the Human Body
- De: Armand Marie Leroi
- Narrado por: Nigel Patterson
- Duración: 9 h y 21 m
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Stepping effortlessly from myth to cutting-edge science, Mutants gives a brilliant narrative account of our genetic code and the captivating people whose bodies have revealed it - a French convent girl who found herself changing sex at puberty; children who, echoing Homer's Cyclops, are born with a single eye in the middle of their foreheads; a village of long-lived Croatian dwarves; one family, whose bodies were entirely covered with hair, was kept at the Burmese royal court for four generations and gave Darwin one of his keenest insights into heredity.
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Fascinating
- De A. Holmes en 11-30-24
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Paradox
- The Nine Greatest Enigmas in Physics
- De: Jim Al-Khalili
- Narrado por: Matthew Waterson
- Duración: 6 h y 54 m
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Throughout history, scientists have come up with theories and ideas that just don't seem to make sense. These we call paradoxes. The paradoxes Al-Khalili offers are drawn chiefly from physics and astronomy and represent those that have stumped some of the finest minds. With elegant explanations that bring the listener inside the mind of those who've developed them, Al-Khalili helps us to see that, in fact, paradoxes can be solved if seen from the right angle.
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Almost Useless
- De Michael en 06-19-19
De: Jim Al-Khalili
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Everything Is Predictable
- How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World
- De: Tom Chivers
- Narrado por: Tom Chivers
- Duración: 8 h y 7 m
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At its simplest, Bayes’s theorem describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. But in Everything Is Predictable, Tom Chivers lays out how it affects every aspect of our lives. He explains why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives and how a failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. A cornerstone of rational thought, many argue that Bayes’s theorem is a description of almost everything. But who was the man who lent his name to this theorem?
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I was looking forward to this. What a disappointment.
- De Alessandro Fadini en 06-28-24
De: Tom Chivers
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Six Impossible Things
- The Mystery of the Quantum World
- De: John Gribbin
- Narrado por: Matthew Waterson
- Duración: 2 h y 19 m
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Rules of the quantum world seem to say that a cat can be both alive and dead at the same time and a particle can be in two places at once. And that particle is also a wave; everything in the quantum world can described in terms of waves - or entirely in terms of particles. These interpretations were all established by the end of the 1920s, by Erwin Schrödinger, Werner Heisenberg, Paul Dirac, and others. But no one has yet come up with a common sense explanation of what is going on.
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I didn't know all these different theories of quantum physics existed!
- De David J. en 05-08-25
De: John Gribbin
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A Mathematician's Lament
- How School Cheats Us Out of Our Most Fascinating and Imaginative Art Form
- De: Paul Lockhart
- Narrado por: Matthew Josdal
- Duración: 2 h y 58 m
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A brilliant research mathematician reveals math to be a creative art form on par with painting, poetry, and sculpture, and rejects the standard anxiety-producing teaching methods used in most schools today. Witty and accessible, Paul Lockhart's controversial approach will provoke spirited debate among educators and parents alike, altering the way we think about math forever.
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Beautiful call to action
- De Ben Haley en 03-11-25
De: Paul Lockhart
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Bernoulli's Fallacy
- Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science
- De: Aubrey Clayton
- Narrado por: Tim H. Dixon
- Duración: 15 h y 14 m
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Aubrey Clayton traces the history of how statistics went astray, beginning with the groundbreaking work of the 17th-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. Clayton recounts the feuds among rival schools of statistics, exploring the surprisingly human problems that gave rise to the discipline and the all-too-human shortcomings that derailed it.
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Rigorously Bayesian
- De Anonymous User en 01-25-22
De: Aubrey Clayton
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Why Does E=MC2 and Why Should We Care
- De: Brian Cox, Jeff Forshaw
- Narrado por: Jeff Forshaw
- Duración: 7 h y 3 m
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In one of the most exciting and accessible explanations of The Theory of Relativity in recent years, Professors Brian Cox and Jeff Forshaw go on a journey to the frontier of 21st century science to consider the real meaning behind the iconic sequence of symbols that make up Einstein's most famous equation, exploring the principles of physics through everyday life.
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Needs a few Diagrams
- De Roy en 06-13-11
De: Brian Cox, y otros
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The Deep Learning Revolution
- De: Terrence J. Sejnowski
- Narrado por: Shawn Compton
- Duración: 8 h y 5 m
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The deep-learning revolution has brought us driverless cars, the greatly improved Google Translate, fluent conversations with Siri and Alexa, and enormous profits from automated trading on the New York Stock Exchange. Deep-learning networks can play poker better than professional poker players and defeat a world champion at Go. In this book, Terry Sejnowski explains how deep learning went from being an arcane academic field to a disruptive technology in the information economy.
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Probably the best audio book available on Deep Learning
- De Charlie en 03-01-19
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Black Snow
- Curtis LeMay, the Firebombing of Tokyo, and the Road to the Atomic Bomb
- De: James M. Scott
- Narrado por: L.J. Ganser
- Duración: 12 h y 59 m
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Seven minutes past midnight on March 10, 1945, nearly 300 American B-29s thundered into the skies over Tokyo. Their payloads of incendiaries ignited a firestorm that reached up to 2,800 degrees, liquefying asphalt and vaporizing thousands; sixteen square miles of the city were flattened and more than 100,000 men, women, and children were killed. Black Snow is the story of this devastating operation, orchestrated by Major General Curtis LeMay, who famously remarked: "If we lose the war, we'll be tried as war criminals."
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Scott nearly puts it all together here.
- De C. G. Telcontar en 05-28-24
De: James M. Scott
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Beyond Weird
- De: Philip Ball
- Narrado por: Jonathan Cowley
- Duración: 9 h y 20 m
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An exhilarating tour of the contemporary quantum landscape, Beyond Weird is a book about what quantum physics really means - and what it doesn't. Science writer Philip Ball offers an up-to-date, accessible account of the quest to come to grips with the most fundamental theory of physical reality, and to explain how its counterintuitive principles underpin the world we experience.
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A difficult listen
- De Ray en 03-17-19
De: Philip Ball
I had no trouble understanding the narrator, but this is the first audiobook I've listened to in which some proper names (especially French names) were horribly mispronounced.
A fascinating story
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I am inspired to learn more about Bayesian and Pascal’s work
Amazing story
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interesting
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Very informative and captivating
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The Story Behind Bayes Theorem (Rule)
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Thorough history
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interesting history
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I found the narrative engaging and at times gripping. Sometimes the repetitive use of examples litter the historical story line, but the story itself is illuminating.
I've never heard as much info on RenTech, which was fascinating, but wish more time had been spent on Mercer.
great listen, great read
great
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The writing was good. Not particularly captivating, but it held my attention.
At the end she talks about breast cancer screening, and I think the lesson here is something that everyone would benefit from knowing (especially during a pandemic) - a test may be 99.9% accurate, but if you get a positive result, it may only have a 3% chance of indicating that you have the condition for which it is testing. If that's confusing, consider studying Bayes Theorem! :)
0.8 probability of 5 stars
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I don't get the bad reviews...
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