
Everything Is Predictable
How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World
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Narrado por:
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Tom Chivers
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De:
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Tom Chivers
Acerca de esta escucha
“Bayes’s moment has clearly arrived.” —The Wall Street Journal
A captivating and user-friendly tour of Bayes’s theorem and its global impact on modern life from the acclaimed science writer and author of The Rationalist’s Guide to the Galaxy.
At its simplest, Bayes’s theorem describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. But in Everything Is Predictable, Tom Chivers lays out how it affects every aspect of our lives. He explains why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives and how a failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. A cornerstone of rational thought, many argue that Bayes’s theorem is a description of almost everything.
But who was the man who lent his name to this theorem? How did an 18th-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician uncover a theorem that would affect fields as diverse as medicine, law, and artificial intelligence?
Fusing biography, razor-sharp science writing, and intellectual history, Everything Is Predictable is an entertaining tour of Bayes’s theorem and its impact on modern life, showing how a single compelling idea can have far reaching consequences.
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Narración:
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Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. Sharon Bertsch McGrayne here explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it.
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Who is the intended audience?
- De Billy en 07-21-14
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Humble Pi
- When Math Goes Wrong in the Real World
- De: Matt Parker
- Narrado por: Matt Parker
- Duración: 9 h y 33 m
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Exploring and explaining a litany of glitches, near misses, and mathematical mishaps involving the internet, big data, elections, street signs, lotteries, the Roman Empire, and an Olympic team, Matt Parker uncovers the bizarre ways math trips us up, and what this reveals about its essential place in our world. Getting it wrong has never been more fun.
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Fascinating & enlightening even for da mathphobic✏️
- De C. White en 01-23-20
De: Matt Parker
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The Art of Statistics
- How to Learn from Data
- De: David Spiegelhalter
- Narrado por: Jonathan Davis
- Duración: 9 h y 1 m
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Statistics are everywhere, as integral to science as they are to business, and in the popular media hundreds of times a day. In this age of big data, a basic grasp of statistical literacy is more important than ever if we want to separate the fact from the fiction, the ostentatious embellishments from the raw evidence - and even more so if we hope to participate in the future, rather than being simple bystanders.
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very good statistics overview
- De Tom en 11-29-19
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Probably the Best Book on Statistics Ever Written
- How to Beat the Odds and Make Better Decisions
- De: Haim Shapira
- Narrado por: Qarie Marshall
- Duración: 9 h y 56 m
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This book reveals how statistics and probability are fundamental to our everyday lives—from advertisements to public opinion polls, weather forecasts to government policies, scientific research to stock market information. Haim Shapira then presents a myriad of anecdotes, riddles, case studies and practical exercises in his trademark witty voice to guide the listner through the importance of statistics and probability in everyday life.
De: Haim Shapira
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The Rationalist's Guide to the Galaxy
- Superintelligent AI and the Geeks Who Are Trying to Save Humanity's Future
- De: Tom Chivers
- Narrado por: Tom Chivers
- Duración: 8 h y 12 m
- Versión completa
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This is an audiobook about AI and AI risk. But it's also more importantly about a community of people who are trying to think rationally about intelligence, and the places that these thoughts are taking them, and what insight they can and can't give us about the future of the human race over the next few years. It explains why these people are worried, why they might be right and why they might be wrong.
De: Tom Chivers
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A Brief History of Mathematics
- Complete Series
- De: Marcus du Sautoy
- Narrado por: Marcus du Sautoy
- Duración: 2 h y 13 m
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This 10-part history of mathematics reveals the personalities behind the calculations: the passions and rivalries of mathematicians struggling to get their ideas heard. Professor Marcus du Sautoy shows how these masters of abstraction find a role in the real world and proves that mathematics is the driving force behind modern science.
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not a book
- De bob en 06-22-21
De: Marcus du Sautoy
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On the Edge
- The Art of Risking Everything
- De: Nate Silver
- Narrado por: Nate Silver
- Duración: 15 h y 5 m
- Versión completa
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In the bestselling The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver showed how forecasting would define the age of Big Data. Now, in this timely and riveting new book, Silver investigates "The River," or those whose mastery of risk allows them to shape—and dominate—so much of modern life. These professional risk takers—poker players and hedge fund managers, crypto true-believers and blue-chip art collectors—can teach us much about navigating the uncertainty of the 21st century.
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Fascinating report from a distant land
- De David Benjamin en 09-14-24
De: Nate Silver
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A Most Elegant Equation
- Euler’s Formula and the Beauty of Mathematics
- De: David Stipp
- Narrado por: Sean Pratt
- Duración: 5 h y 2 m
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Bertrand Russell wrote that mathematics can exalt "as surely as poetry". This is especially true of one equation: ei(pi) + 1 = 0, the brainchild of Leonhard Euler, the Mozart of mathematics. More than two centuries after Euler's death, it is still regarded as a conceptual diamond of unsurpassed beauty. Called Euler's identity, or God's equation, it includes just five numbers but represents an astonishing revelation of hidden connections.
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Good treatment of the subject
- De Kindle Customer en 04-09-18
De: David Stipp
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Artificial Intelligence
- Modern Magic or Dangerous Future?
- De: Yorick Wilks
- Narrado por: Hannibal Hills
- Duración: 5 h
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AI expert Yorick Wilks takes a journey through the history of artificial intelligence up to the present day, examining its origins, controversies, and achievements, as well as looking into just how it works. He also considers the future, assessing whether these technologies could menace our way of life and how we are all likely to benefit from AI applications in the years to come.
De: Yorick Wilks
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The Data Detective
- Ten Easy Rules to Make Sense of Statistics
- De: Tim Harford
- Narrado por: Tim Harford
- Duración: 10 h y 24 m
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Today we think statistics are the enemy, numbers used to mislead and confuse us. That’s a mistake, Tim Harford says in The Data Detective. We shouldn’t be suspicious of statistics - we need to understand what they mean and how they can improve our lives: they are, at heart, human behavior seen through the prism of numbers and are often “the only way of grasping much of what is going on around us”.
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I expected more
- De A. Visserman en 03-09-21
De: Tim Harford
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Standard Deviations
- Flawed Assumptions, Tortured Data, and Other Ways to Lie with Statistics
- De: Gary Smith
- Narrado por: Tim Andres Pabon
- Duración: 9 h y 20 m
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As Nobel Prize-winning economist Ronald Coase once cynically observed, "If you torture data long enough, it will confess." Lying with statistics is a time-honored con. In Standard Deviations, economics professor Gary Smith walks us through the various tricks and traps that people use to back up their own crackpot theories. Sometimes, the unscrupulous deliberately try to mislead us. Other times, the well-intentioned are blissfully unaware of the mischief they are committing.
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Now, I can't talk to people.....
- De Andrew Dunbar en 09-28-21
De: Gary Smith
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The Hour Between Dog and Wolf
- Risk Taking, Gut Feelings, and the Biology of Boom and Bust
- De: John Coates
- Narrado por: Richard Powers
- Duración: 10 h y 30 m
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A successful Wall Street trader turned Cambridge neuroscientist reveals the biology of boom and bust and how risk taking transforms our body chemistry, driving us to extremes of euphoria and risky behavior or stress and depression. The laws of financial boom and bust, it turns out, have more than a little to do with male hormones. In a series of groundbreaking experiments, Dr. John Coates identified a feedback loop between testosterone and success that dramatically lowers the fear of risk.
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Amazing!
- De Gary C en 03-12-15
De: John Coates
Lo que los oyentes dicen sobre Everything Is Predictable
Calificaciones medias de los clientesReseñas - Selecciona las pestañas a continuación para cambiar el origen de las reseñas.
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- Mark
- 09-16-24
Hard to listen to
Great book, forced to buy hard copy.
A companion to Bernoulli's Fallacy. Probability theory is used to control how we think, it's always a good idea to investigate why some conclude what they do.
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- Frank from Virginia
- 06-01-24
Great explanations of apply Bayesian logic
The author makes Bayesian statistics comprehensible and then goes on to real world applications and some history as to how classical statistics sometimes yields bad science. Great listen.
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- Amazon Customer
- 12-16-24
Great opportunity to ponder...
...how one behaves and how one might be behaving optimally. And the reader performes and reads with proper deference.
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- Benjamin
- 07-07-24
The best Bayes overview for layman
Great overview of Bayes - funny and informative. Author does an excellent job narrating his own text. Highly recommend.
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- Anderson Kelly
- 02-21-25
Bayes everywhere Now I see him!
The ending or culmination of the book is fantastic. It was presented well with a perfect reading.
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- thomas b young
- 11-17-24
Great topic spoken in simple terms!
Great voice. Great content. Wish this author would create more. This text is welcoming to novice minds on the subject matter. It also does a great job giving some historical background. Would love more on free energy theory.
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- B. Ramos-Stephens
- 01-06-25
Great listen on Bayes
Loved this book for its content & sprinkling of humor. I’m already a student or Bayesian statistics, complexity theory & AI. So, this listen was right up my alley. It gave me new insights on all these topics, and tied them all together once again. If you are already familiar with Bayesian theory, I highly recommend this listen to get more in depth, novel insights & some practical applications. The material didn’t call for great leaps of narration, so I only gave it 4 stars in that regard. But, the use of humor was a really nice touch.
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- steve
- 03-23-25
Excellent book
I was familiar with the subject but this book did a great job explaining it.
The author reads his own work well. His humor is a welcome relief to trying to understanding the concept.
Well worth your time
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- Alessandro Fadini
- 06-28-24
I was looking forward to this. What a disappointment.
Unfortunately the book is all around underwhelming.
There is not enough thinking and information about Bayes theorem, the narration is dull, everything lacks vibrancy.
The book is extremely meandering.
I forced myself to finish it, because I bought it full price.
I was very motivated to learn about Bayes thinking and the depth of it, in connection to Less Wrong and all the other zeitgeist. Or at least I wanted to be entertained.
I was bitterly disappointed on both counts.
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