Everything Is Predictable
How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World
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Narrated by:
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Tom Chivers
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By:
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Tom Chivers
About this listen
“Bayes’s moment has clearly arrived.” —The Wall Street Journal
A captivating and user-friendly tour of Bayes’s theorem and its global impact on modern life from the acclaimed science writer and author of The Rationalist’s Guide to the Galaxy.
At its simplest, Bayes’s theorem describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. But in Everything Is Predictable, Tom Chivers lays out how it affects every aspect of our lives. He explains why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives and how a failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. A cornerstone of rational thought, many argue that Bayes’s theorem is a description of almost everything.
But who was the man who lent his name to this theorem? How did an 18th-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician uncover a theorem that would affect fields as diverse as medicine, law, and artificial intelligence?
Fusing biography, razor-sharp science writing, and intellectual history, Everything Is Predictable is an entertaining tour of Bayes’s theorem and its impact on modern life, showing how a single compelling idea can have far reaching consequences.
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From launchpad explosions to a pernicious cricket infestation to the demanding management style of Musk himself, the rise of SpaceX was beset with challenges and far from inevitable. Find out how the startup beat the odds and flew high enough to outpace their rivals... and where they're going next.
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Appreciated the engineering details
- By Will on 10-19-24
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Gut
- The Inside Story of Our Body's Most Underrated Organ
- By: Giulia Enders
- Narrated by: Katy Sobey
- Length: 7 hrs and 26 mins
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Our gut is almost as important to us as our brain, yet we know very little about how it works. Gut: The Inside Story is an entertaining, informative tour of the digestive system from the moment we raise a tasty morsel to our lips until the moment our body surrenders the remnants to the toilet bowl. No topic is too lowly for the author's wonder and admiration, from the careful choreography of breaking wind to the precise internal communication required for a cleansing vomit.
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Doctors opinion
- By KevinMcVeigh on 03-02-17
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Origins, Revised and Updated
- Fourteen Billion Years of Cosmic Evolution
- By: Donald Goldsmith, Neil deGrasse Tyson
- Narrated by: JD Jackson
- Length: 9 hrs and 45 mins
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Our true origins are not only human, or even terrestrial, but in fact cosmic. Drawing on recent scientific breakthroughs and cross-pollination among geology, biology, astrophysics, and cosmology, Origins illuminates the soul-stirring leaps in our understanding of the cosmos. This newly revised and updated edition features such startling discoveries as the more than 5,000 newly detected exoplanets that shed light on the origins of and possibilities for life in the cosmos.
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There is nothing here
- By Hermanubis on 12-30-22
By: Donald Goldsmith, and others
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The Learning Brain
- By: The Great Courses
- Narrated by: Professor Thad A. Polk PhD Carnegie Mellon University
- Length: 12 hrs and 23 mins
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One of the most complicated and advanced computers on Earth can't be purchased in any store. This astonishing device, responsible for storing and retrieving vast quantities of information that can be accessed at a moment's notice, is the human brain. How does such a dynamic and powerful machine make memories, learn a language, and remember how to drive a car? What habits can we adopt in order to learn more effectively throughout our lives? The answers to these questions are merely the tip of the iceberg in The Learning Brain.
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Slow, useful, unconvincing
- By Tintin on 03-02-19
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To the point
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If you're like most people, geometry is a dimly remembered exercise you gladly left behind in the dust of ninth grade. It's plodding through a series of miniscule steps only to prove some fact about triangles that was obvious to you in the first place. That's not geometry. Okay, it is geometry, but only a tiny part, which has as much to do with geometry in all its flush modern richness as conjugating a verb has to do with a great novel. Shape reveals the geometry underneath some of the most important scientific, political, and philosophical problems we face.
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Excellent, but not suited for an audiobook
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The Doomsday Calculation
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In the 18th century, the British minister and mathematician Thomas Bayes devised a theorem that allowed him to assign probabilities to events that had never happened before. It languished in obscurity for centuries until computers came along and made it easy to crunch the numbers. Now, as the foundation of big data, Bayes's formula has become a linchpin of the digital economy. But here's where things get interesting: Bayes's theorem can also be used to lay odds on the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence, and on the biggest question of all: how long will humanity survive?
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incredible.
- By Ben T. on 05-22-21
What listeners say about Everything Is Predictable
Average customer ratingsReviews - Please select the tabs below to change the source of reviews.
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- Mark
- 09-16-24
Hard to listen to
Great book, forced to buy hard copy.
A companion to Bernoulli's Fallacy. Probability theory is used to control how we think, it's always a good idea to investigate why some conclude what they do.
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- Benjamin
- 07-07-24
The best Bayes overview for layman
Great overview of Bayes - funny and informative. Author does an excellent job narrating his own text. Highly recommend.
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- Frank from Virginia
- 06-01-24
Great explanations of apply Bayesian logic
The author makes Bayesian statistics comprehensible and then goes on to real world applications and some history as to how classical statistics sometimes yields bad science. Great listen.
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- thomas b young
- 11-17-24
Great topic spoken in simple terms!
Great voice. Great content. Wish this author would create more. This text is welcoming to novice minds on the subject matter. It also does a great job giving some historical background. Would love more on free energy theory.
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- Alessandro Fadini
- 06-28-24
I was looking forward to this. What a disappointment.
Unfortunately the book is all around underwhelming.
There is not enough thinking and information about Bayes theorem, the narration is dull, everything lacks vibrancy.
The book is extremely meandering.
I forced myself to finish it, because I bought it full price.
I was very motivated to learn about Bayes thinking and the depth of it, in connection to Less Wrong and all the other zeitgeist. Or at least I wanted to be entertained.
I was bitterly disappointed on both counts.
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2 people found this helpful