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  • On the Edge

  • The Art of Risking Everything
  • By: Nate Silver
  • Narrated by: Nate Silver
  • Length: 15 hrs and 5 mins
  • 4.2 out of 5 stars (134 ratings)

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On the Edge

By: Nate Silver
Narrated by: Nate Silver
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Publisher's summary

NAMED A MOST-ANTICIPATED BOOK OF 2024 BY FT, The Guardian, and The Sunday Times

From the New York Times bestselling author of The Signal and the Noise, the definitive guide to our era of risk—and the players raising the stakes

In the bestselling The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver showed how forecasting would define the age of Big Data. Now, in this timely and riveting new book, Silver investigates “the River,” the community of like-minded people whose mastery of risk allows them to shape—and dominate—so much of modern life.

These professional risk-takers—poker players and hedge fund managers, crypto true believers and blue-chip art collectors—can teach us much about navigating the uncertainty of the twenty-first century. By immersing himself in the worlds of Doyle Brunson, Peter Thiel, Sam Bankman-Fried, Sam Altman, and many others, Silver offers insight into a range of issues that affect us all, from the frontiers of finance to the future of AI.

Most of us don’t have traits commonly found in the River: high tolerance for risk, appreciation of uncertainty, affinity for numbers—paired with an instinctive distrust of conventional wisdom and a competitive drive so intense it can border on irrational. For those in the River, complexity is baked in, and the work is how to navigate it. People in the River have increasing amounts of wealth and power in our society, and understanding their mindset—and the flaws in their thinking—is key to understanding what drives technology and the global economy today.

Taking us behind the scenes from casinos to venture capital firms, and from the FTX inner sanctum to meetings of the effective altruism movement, On the Edge is a deeply reported, all-access journey into a hidden world of power bro­kers and risk-takers.

* This audiobook edition includes a downloadable PDF of charts and a glossary of terms from the book.

PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying PDF will be available in your Audible Library along with the audio.

©2024 Nate Silver (P)2024 Penguin Audio

Interview: Nate Silver’s "On the Edge" shows what we can learn from the world’s biggest risk takers

'I think it's okay in politics to treat politics with a little bit of irreverence and humor... '
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  • On the Edge
  • 'I think it's okay in politics to treat politics with a little bit of irreverence and humor... '

What listeners say about On the Edge

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    5 out of 5 stars

A sharp take on the modern world as seen through the lens of poker and sports betting

Exceptionally insightful and educational, I thoroughly enjoyed Silver's latest book. Nate's narration is a real treat, if you're a fan of his podcasts you'll appreciate his accents and humor. I'll be honest, you'd have to be *really* into poker and/or sports betting to fully appreciate chapters two through four. After that, the scope broadens considerably, and there's something for everyone in the back half with deep dives in crypto, investing, AI and politics. Highly recommend, and this might just be the book of the year!

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A lot to unpack, great material

Covers all kinds of risk taking (those on the river) from casinos, sports betting, poker to the Stock Market and Crypto. This could have been easily condensed to 2 books but credit to the author including it all here. Great delivery also

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A fascinating look at risk and the different risk tribes that have developed

Very good book read by author himself . The two different tribes , the risk-neutral river driving innovation and the risk averse village (arguably holding us back with insane levels of caution) get a thorough and more balanced than this treatment

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fascinating examination of risk takers

it helped me understand people who like to take risks. Great narative, very engaging. I learned a lot about the movers and shakers in our modern world

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Fun and well-articulated discussion of managed risks

Full disclosure, I’m a fan of Nate Silver’s writing. I know a lot of folks don’t enjoy him, but for those who enjoy his somewhat snarky, plain spoken style, this book is a treat.

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Fascinating report from a distant land

In the language of Nate Silver, I am a lifelong Villager— conventional, square, behind every curve. Like the Lewis & Clark of advanced probabilistic thinking, he brings back vivid reports of a world I dimly perceive. I wouldn’t gamble if you paid me, but his analysis of poker playing is riveting. He starts with something we recognize and builds out from there into increasingly complex structures of thought. He is relentlessly fascinating. This is a wide ranging, artfully structured book. He is a great witty companion. My only complaint is that this book ends. I wanted more.

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Loved it

Really fun book, really spoke to me. I play competitive magic the gathering. The one part I didn’t enjoy was his impressions. Who told him to keep the silly voices? Haha.

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Indispensable Perspective

This is a very enlightening book. It provides really interesting analysis of probabilistic thinking and a bunch of other related concepts. I think you need to know these things to understand our world today. And this is unique insight in general - in my mind, that is why Silver is so valuable - he truly attempts to understand things as they are, which is no small goal in a society where everyone has an axe to grind.

The “but” is about probabilistic thinking in general - it’s odd that those who are so focused on data - not referring to Silver himself so much as other characters he talks about - are willing to make “probabilistic” bets with very little data, setting odds that are at times of varying levels of ridiculousness (P(doom), come on, or the guy talking about a 90% vs a 93% chance, while making up the numbers in his head.)

This is why EV calculations are often absurd - it’s just silly to talk about an outcome with a 1% chance of a great success (assuming you even know that) and calculate its EV on that basis, This is not reality, and EV extremism is why we have SBF and other bizarre players in this strange universe.

However, it is vital to understand these topics, and I truly appreciate the exercise of probabilistic thinking (can lead to good analysis and conversations). But like most Riverian takes, this book leaves out the reality of the less advantaged and what to do about it (though Silver makes some passing comments), and you are left with a really strange playground of wealthy misfits playing games (because there are enough of them) in an attempt to find meaning in their lives.

In the end - this is what I think living “On the Edge” is really about - just one collection of coping mechanisms for dealing with the challenges of life for those with access to capital. Unfortunately, they are using their skills and brainpower to focus on financial profit (not solely, I get it), but that’s how things work.

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Interesting

His first hand experience playing professional poker and sports gaming give a lot of detail and credibility to those sections.

His understanding of AI is enough to provide good insight into the key possibilities and potential dangers in AI’s future.

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Canoeing Down the River

I am an average person with a healthy dose of curiosity. So getting a tour of the world of River people was interesting because I don’t hang out with these types. I understood maybe 75% of the content of this book, but I still enjoyed the ride. I was most impressed with Nate’s narration—a pleasant surprise. He does act out a few other people (as well as ChatGPT), and his impression of Sam Bankman-Fried of the collapsed FTX was especially fun to listen to.

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