Episodes

  • #295: The Trio’s Top Predictions for 2025 - What’s in Store for the Property Market?

    #295: The Trio’s Top Predictions for 2025 - What’s in Store for the Property Market?
    Feb 3 2025
    Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXMIt's another bumper episode, and we promise we won't keep clocking one hour eps.Following on from last week's retrospective on how the Trio went with their 2024 predictions, this time they each shared their 2025 predictions.What will the market do? - Cate thinks that 2025 will be a better market than 2024. Cate guesstimates 7.5% growth, nationally. Mike thinks a slight underperformance is on the cards when contrasting 2025 to 2024. Mike's national growth prediction is 4%, and Dave's prediction for national growth is closely aligned with Mike's, at 3%.Dave pitches 2026 the year of strong performance.Capital city top performers - The Trio aren't completely aligned with their top three picks. Cate kicks off with her predictions Adelaide, Perth and Melbourne, (in this order). Cate expands on her reasons and Adelaide's economic health, job growth and irresistible pull for visitors holds it in good stead for Cate. But why has Cate picked Melbourne at number three? Tune in to find out.Mike's selection is Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide.Dave is very optimistic about Perth's performance this year, but he shares some 2026 confidence in the Melbourne market. His runners up are Adelaide and Melbourne for 2025. Regional locations - The Trio have an array of regional locations, including Townsville, Toowoomba, Gold Coast and surrounds. While they are all aligned with their optimism about the QLD regions, NSW and Victoria get a special mention too. Cate comments about the relative affordability and appeal of regional Tasmanian cities too, but she ponders how WA regions will travel in 2025. Dave suggests that regional SA will be in the top three regional performers.Investor numbers - With rate cuts and higher rental yields, will investor numbers grow from the 2024 numbers? Mike concurs and thinks a 10% increase in investor lending will follow in 2025, while Dave goes into some good detail about specific states and investor numbers. Cate considers the potential affect of share market volatility, and the impact of increasing intergenerational wealth, too.Government intervention in property market - Cate is doubtful that Victoria will receive any further tightening of rental legislation, and Mike agrees. The spotlight could be on investors if they become too strong a force against first homebuyer numbers. What could happen if the coalition form government? And will APRA consider easing the 3% credit buffer in 2025? Tune in to hear their thoughts.Developers and building - What incentives will be offered to increase new builds and ease housing affordability? From Rent to Buy, to offering increased returns for new property, Dave has a few ideas. Cate predicts some more cost-effective, private, builders will free up and this could impact our current market segmentation. Cate, Mike and Dave estimate increased building starts for 2025 with some specific percentages each....Interest rates - the Trio have a bit of fun with this. After last year's predictions, they decided to be much more specific with their predictions. From Rate Tracker data, to election timing and inflation figures, our three muskateers name the months, the retrospective rate movements and the total 2025 net interest rate movement.Rents/Vacancy rates - Which cities will relax back to historical norms, and which will stay tight? Or will the capital cities all move in sync? The Trio have varied predictions, ensuring they keep it entertaining for the listeners.Sales volumes - Considering consumer confidence, listing volumes, and vendor-commitment to selling is important when predicting sales volumes. Cate reflects on the year that was, and contrasts some of the situations that vendors will be facing in 2025. What makes vendors sit on their hands? Mike considers some of the challenges we may face. Dave holds greater hope for the back half of 2025, reminding us all that he is anticipating a brighter 2026.Risks which could impact the market - Cate kicks the discussion off with her concerns; Overseas migration reduction threatening economic prosperity, China and US trade sanctions, Higher oil prices, APRA intervention with investor activity, Stock market corrections, and Unemployment rising faster than forecasted. Mike forewarns us about insurance woes, and in particular in relation to natural disasters He also touches on global conflict and the severe impact conflict can have on the property market. Resource prices, Immigration and Construction undersupply are also on Mike's list. Dave tops up the list with the following: Waning productivity in our nation, Poor political decisions in relation to government debt, More taxes on investors and The breakdown of our relationship with China.Inflation - The Trio are all very exacting with their predicted figures. Who will get it right? Who will get it ...
    Show more Show less
    58 mins
  • #294: A Recap of the 2024 Year in Property – And Our 2024 Prediction Hits, Misses, Lessons and Surprises

    #294: A Recap of the 2024 Year in Property – And Our 2024 Prediction Hits, Misses, Lessons and Surprises
    Jan 27 2025
    Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXM


    The Trio love this retrospective. Each year, they predict the following year and at year end, they review their predictions and rate each other's accuracy.

    Today's show is a lot of fun, and it's our longest podcast recording ever.... sorry folks. We will try to keep it under an hour going forward.

    Dave got the best score for our first question; "What will the market do?"
    • "I think we'll see value growth of about 2% to 7% nationally next year."
    • "I think the market will be weighed down by Melbourne and Sydney as they're starting to move into negative territory."
    • "There'll be some good buying opportunities in Melbourne and Sydney for the first three to six months, but because they are about 50% of the overall Australian property market, I think they'll hold it back."
    • "I think rental growth will outstrip value growth."
    ....solid marks for Dave on this one.

    The second question was more specific. The Trio had to nominate their capital city top performers. How did they rate? Cate's claim, "I'm going to go with Adelaide as the city that nails it". While she only picked the number two, her rationale was sound and she nominated the three top performers.

    None of the Trio picked the strong regional areas though.

    Their fourth question related to investor numbers. There was almost a thirty per cent increase in investor activity, yet none of the Trio picked this trend. What gave way to it? Tune in to hear their thoughts.

    How did governments intervene in the property market? From superannuation changes to tax changes, shared equity and build to rent, our Trio did score some points on this segment of their predictions. And Mike mentioned the chance of rent caps joining the conversation.

    What about developers and new builds? What did our crew get right with their predictions? Mike sheds light on liquidations and builder challenges.

    And.... the question that everyone wants to have answered. What will happen with interest rates? The Trio share what they based their opinions and projections on, and there are some great learnings for our listeners to glean. Kudos to Governor Bullock for explaining the Reserve Board's decisions each board meeting. And just for those who wondered what Mike's prediction was? "I think we might end up getting a cut in the August meeting." Dave and Cate are still paying out on Mike.

    Rents and Vacancy rates was the next discussion topic. The consensus is that Dave won this prediction. "Vacancy rates will stay at similar levels, unfortunately. We might see a slight uptick, but they're going to stay pretty similar around record lows."
    "Rental growth, I think, will outstrip capital growth."

    The Trio's predictions around sales volumes and listings were interesting. Cate sheds light on some of the challenges that buyer's agents face with agent's anecdotal claims.

    Risks that could impact the market was an intriguing segment. Dave's geopolitical views reinforced his willingness to go for the big ticket items, every time! From Trump to China and Russia, the Trio talk about some of the global challenges we face. Cate's concern about natural disasters and insurance costs scored her points on this segment. And Mike reminded our listeners of the following. "Political intervention is the number one risk to perverting the market."

    And lastly, how did the Trio feel inflation figures would wind up in 2024? From trimmed mean figures to post-COVID challenges, the Trio thrive with this discussion. Mike and Cate concede that Dave won this challenge.

    Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/01/27/distilling-2024-predictions/
    Show more Show less
    1 hr and 4 mins
  • #293: Market Update Dec 24 – Listings Hit 5-Year Highs, Affordable Properties Surge, National Values Slip & Adelaide Faces Unique Challenges

    #293: Market Update Dec 24 – Listings Hit 5-Year Highs, Affordable Properties Surge, National Values Slip & Adelaide Faces Unique Challenges
    Jan 20 2025
    Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXM

    The Trio enjoy regrouping after a lovely summer break. This week, they canvas the December figures. The indices deliver mixed outcomes, and overall the national monthly movement registers a slight market decrease, but what can this be put down to? There are markets within markets, and the Trio break down some of the standout results. From regional cities, to Adelaide's incredible run, there are some noteworthy stats to digest.

    AND... maybe the Trio will construct an episode on Darwin for our listeners! Stay tuned....

    Market segmentation counts for so much and the Trio point out the outperformance of the lowest quartile in six of the seven states and territories. What does this signal? And why would investors broadly target lower quartile properties? Cate shares her insights....

    Rents... good news for renters but bad news for investors? Not really. While rents aren't in double digits any longer, rental growth is still mostly above CPI. Cate steps through some of the considerations that owners need to apply when considering rental increases.

    "But it's listings that i tend to get excited about because they filter through into our market dynamics."

    New listing volumes were decent last year. They were at or above the five year average. However, all listings were below the previous five year average, but the tightening was a reflection of stronger listing volumes in 2024.

    The Westpac consumer sentiment index is a powerful glimpse at times, and Jan 2025 reveals some interesting changes.

    Time to buy a dwelling, family finance, and annualised interest rate expectations... as the Westpac release suggests, "The consumer mood has soured for two months in a row and remains on the pessimistic side. However... consumers expect things to continue to improve from here."

    Lastly, the Trio wonder what predictive ability the ASX's rate tracker has when it comes to signalling specific dates for rate cuts.... only time will tell, but February is looking interesting!

    The portion of lending for investment housing is significantly above recent historical levels. Wealth effect? Comfort with no further rate increases? What has driven this?

    Dave points out some of the interesting indices across the varying data houses. Simple indexes can pick up some changes sooner, and Dave has some great insights for our listeners to consider.

    Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/01/20/ep-293-dec-market-update/
    Show more Show less
    48 mins
  • #292: Property Trends to Watch in 2025 - What Every Investor and Homebuyer Needs to Know

    #292: Property Trends to Watch in 2025 - What Every Investor and Homebuyer Needs to Know
    Jan 13 2025
    Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXM

    This week, Cate hosts the show and the Trio list three specific trends to watch in 2025. Dave opens up the discussion about the financial markets and contemplates the chances of a rate cut in February. He notes that the market have fully priced in a cut by the month of April. To date, the RBA's RateTracker is still showing a 73% expectation of a rate cut at the next RBA meeting. What will a rate cut do for owner occupier, investor and renovator sentiment? Cate considers the driving force upon buyers rushing in. Is it the cost of mortgage repayments, or sentiment itself? Market segmentation will be interesting once a rate cut filters through also... keep an eye on the upper quartile of the market.

    With government incentives, green upgrades, e-vehicles and a growing environmental consciousness, we can anticipate a significant shift. But are investors being put off by the price tag of some of these energy-efficiency upgrades? Mike talks about some of the positives for landlords who do embrace them, including depreciation benefits, while Cate covers the state and territory incentives currently on offer.

    We're seeing a shift in who's buying and renting properties. Dave steps through the generational changes over the decades with some great data. The superannuation laws that apply to individuals aged 55 and above are having an impact on the mobility of the housing market. Downsizing isn't the same as 'right-sizing'. Are some retirees spending the same amount of money on their smaller, retirement-age home? And what is impacting today's down-sizers and right-sizers that didn't impact the generation prior? Tune in to find out.

    The fourth segment is that of emerging hotspots. Dave shares some exciting hotspots for growth, along with the growth drivers that the Trio have identified for each. Infrastructure upgrades create jobs, and Mike circles in on some of the specific major projects on his list.

    The final segment relates to the role of technology in property investment. From AI to fractional investing, and blockchain, Mike has a bit of a list. The pace of change is hard to fathom and Dave notes that consumers will continue to embrace tools and get particularly hands on. “It’s an exciting time for tech-savvy investors, but a balanced approach is key. Use the tools, but don’t skip the groundwork.”

    Show Notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/01/13/five-key-trends-for-2025/
    Show more Show less
    46 mins
  • #291: The Truth About Building Inspections - What They Reveal, What They Don’t and How to Ask the Right Questions

    #291: The Truth About Building Inspections - What They Reveal, What They Don’t and How to Ask the Right Questions
    Jan 6 2025
    Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXM

    This week, Dave hosts the show and the Trio chat all things Building Inspections. Cate starts out by clarifying the purpose of a building inspection. Contrary to popular opinion, building inspections aren't tickets to renegotiate a sale. Under certain circumstances, a renegotiation can occur, but the market conditions and competing buyer numbers will likely determine this.

    Building and pest inspections each require a distinct qualification, and Cate sheds light on the differences and methods of each, and the aspects of an inspector's findings that are conducive to pest infestation.

    Dave broaches the costs that can rack up when buyers are in the hunt for a property, particularly in the case of auction campaigns. The Trio chat about some of the ways that buyers can approach this issue. Cate also has some tips about 'on-sold' reports.

    Sometimes property negotiations can move very quickly, especially when an auction property receives a strong offer prior to auction day. Cate steps the listeners through the timeline that buyers need to be mindful of when arranging a building and pest inspection. Dave highlights the importance of managing a due diligence checklist.

    Should buyers get a building inspection before they negotiate a deal, or after? There are many different situations that buyers face, and sometimes it's not possible to avoid organising an inspection prior to securing a property. The Trio chat through some of the situations that buyers face, and how they need to navigate the building and pest inspection process.

    The Trio break down the building and pest inspection clause in the contract. From legal wording to the options that buyers have, this detail may be tiny, but it's very important.

    Cate shares some good questions for buyers to ask their building inspector when a fault or an issue is identified.
    • What is the severity?
    • What do I need to do to address the issues?
    • How quickly should I do so?
    • What is the risk if I don’t address immediately?
    Building and pest inspectors have their limitations and there are a number of things that the inspector won't check. Cate talks through some of these scenarios for our listeners and provides a real life example that she recently experienced.

    Lastly, the Trio chat about how buyers can source a great building inspector, and the secondary benefits of building inspections.

    ..... and our gold nuggets!

    Mike Mortlock’s gold nugget: Mike shares two gold nuggets.... the importance of impartiality when asking for a building inspector recommendation. Mike seconds Cate's firm recommendation to ensure that a discussion with the building inspector ensues. Relying on the report alone can lead to some panic for many, and obtaining clarity and context on the issues is valuable.

    Cate Bakos’s gold nugget: Some things can look worse than they are, and cracking isn't always a big deal. Other things that seem benign can be problematic. Building inspections are valuable.

    Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/01/06/the-truth-about-building-inspections/
    Show more Show less
    47 mins
  • #290: Five Ways Property Buyers Fail to ‘Property’ Plan and How to Create Your Winning Plan

    #290: Five Ways Property Buyers Fail to ‘Property’ Plan and How to Create Your Winning Plan
    Dec 30 2024
    Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXM

    This week, Dave has prepped a great episode for our listeners. Cate opens up the conversation with the first of the five mistakes that buyers make when they fail to plan. Failing to set clear short and long term goals can undermine an investor's outcome from day one. Dave provides some clear pointers for buyers to adopt as they encounter this critical first step.

    "Entering the property market without a plan or without goals is like running a marathon with a blindfold on. You’re bound to trip up and face setbacks."

    Mistake number two prompts some good discussion between the Trio. Jumping into the market without a strategy for the next purchase is unfortunately something the Trio hear about often from remorseful buyers. Making property purchase decisions that don't align with goals is more common than people would think.

    As Mike suggests, buyers need to consider so many facets of the property game; from managing risk, savings buffers, cashflows, tax positions, and of course, where the family home fits. Once you have aligned these aspects, you can then determine the -
    • macro location such as the city or state that best suits that price range,
    • your goals for the property itself for yield and growth,
    • considerations such as minimising land tax,
    • owning in different locations for diversification,
    • factoring where different cities are sitting in the property cycle
    You can only take this macro view and planning approach to your next purchase strategy if you start with goals and a long-term plan.

    Mistake number three is allowing emotions to dictate decisions. There are many ways in which emotions can creep up on us. To name just a few, bias can grip, sometimes it's fatigue, and other times it could be fear of missing out. Dave shares some examples that he's seen people fall prey to over the years.

    "This often happens when we don’t have long-term goals to keep us focused and maintain perspective", says Dave.

    How can buyers balance their emotions and avoid mistakes? Mike's tips are simple and objective, but not easy to adopt without a clear plan.

    Mistake number four: Believing in the get rich quick myth. Dave sheds light on some of the short-term victories that seem enticing and he warns that buyers also need to assess the downside risk and be comfortable with it. Buyers need to be very wary of a range of spruikers too; some will promise double digit returns, while others could be masquerading as advisors while they sell off a stock list.

    "Short-term investments carry high risks, from unpredictable market conditions to expensive renovations to blow outs in costs for developments. It requires significant expertise and resources. Unless you are a successful developer, you generally need to adopt a “get rich slow” mindset."

    Lastly, mistake number five relates to accumulating properties without considering cashflow and savings buffers. Dave's experience with investors shines through when he lists a variety of scenarios he's witnessed over the years in relation to large property portfolios. While many investors get it right, there are plenty who don't. Our recent economic conditions have placed pressure on some multi-property investors and Dave has some good words of wisdom four those who place a value on a large portfolio.

    ..... and our gold nuggets!

    Dave Johnston's gold nugget: The key to property investment success is to view it as a series of informed strategic decisions that align to your short and long term goals.

    Mike Mortlock’s gold nugget: Mike relates an investor scenario to the recent Block series

    Cate Bakos’s gold nugget: Emotion counts for so much and Cate suggests that there is only one type of property that buyers should be emotional about. "You should be entirely emotional about buying your home. Make sure you buy a property that you love. But for your investments, you don't have to love them. You just have to be proud of them."

    Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2024/12/30/five-ways-buyers-fail-to-plan/
    Show more Show less
    39 mins
  • #289: Shared Equity Strategies - Making the Most of Government Schemes and Property Planning Strategies as You Transition to Full Ownership

    #289: Shared Equity Strategies - Making the Most of Government Schemes and Property Planning Strategies as You Transition to Full Ownership
    Dec 23 2024
    Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXM

    A lovely listener writes in to us with some questions about the Victorian shared equity scheme. Shared equity opportunities aren't restricted to just Victoria though. This ep is relevant to any Australians who are considering a shared equity option with the government.

    How should Luke approach this? Should he pay it down with savings (or debt), sell and upgrade, or convert the home to an investment in time?

    Some background on our listener: Luke is 30 years old, high school teacher, on $120k annual salary, 1 baby, 2 dogs, 0 cats. (We like that dog to cat to child ratio!) His partner will return back to work in about 6 months on approximately $70k but this timeframe is up in the air to some degree subject to how life with the baby and parenting goes, but when she does go back, this will take their total income up to $190k. Luke bought his home in the Northern suburbs of Melbourne for $670k in 2021 with the Victorian Homebuyer Fund’s help, contributing 5% of the purchase price himself and with the Gov’t Fund covering another 25%. The home’s value has since increased to around $720,000 to $740,000, maybe more.

    Dave talks our listeners through the government's stake, and how the rules determine the equity split as the property appreciates. Luke can repay the government in various ways, but which way is the optimal? Tune in to find out. Luke needs to be aware of the calculations that govern the methodology for government payout.

    Mike lists some of the rules that the government have determined for equity buy-back. From bulk payment minimums to valuation steps, the rules are reasonably structured. Should Luke reduce the government's share gradually, versus saving up to repay the government later? Every situation is unique, but Dave shares some ideas for our listener to consider. One is a bit outside of the square, but it's a great discussion point.

    The Trio canvas the pro's, cons and realities of shared equity. Is a Lender's Mortgage Insurance premium something that a shared equity purchaser should consider? As Mike eludes to, it's really a question of timing, planning and goals.

    Cate challenges Mike.... those who consider shared equity schemes with the government need the help, and she points out the merits of such schemes. Luke has a few options to consider, but a few restrictions to bear in mind also. The Trio wish him the very best of luck with his property journey. .....

    and our gold nuggets!

    Mike Mortlock’s gold nugget: Mike highlights the upside for those who have limited deposits.

    Dave Johnston's gold nugget: Aim to maximise your ownership as soon as possible! Full equity ownership is one benefit, but the options to renovate, improve, extend, invest are exciting too.

    Cate Bakos’s gold nugget: For those who can enter with a small deposit under the First Home Guarantee Scheme or Home Guarantee scheme.... they could also consider these options too.

    Show Notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2024/12/23/shared-equity/
    Show more Show less
    41 mins
  • #288: Market Update Nov 24 – Perth, Brisbane & Adelaide Slow, Listings Surge in Perth & Adelaide, Rate Cut Predictions & Productivity Woes

    #288: Market Update Nov 24 – Perth, Brisbane & Adelaide Slow, Listings Surge in Perth & Adelaide, Rate Cut Predictions & Productivity Woes
    Dec 16 2024
    Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXM

    The Trio are back together in the studio! The Trio comment on some of the interesting indices for the state of the nation in the month of November.

    Cate marvels at regional performance outstripping capital city performance. The big tier, top three cities are showing weaker growth and Melbourne has continued to show modest price falls.

    Dave predicts that 2025 could be the story of Melbourne and Hobart. He shares his rationale... let's see how his prediction lands!

    Mike points to the stratified price figures and notes that the lowest quartiles are outperforming, all but for ACT and Dave touches on the per capita recession we are all currently in. Canberra's public servant population defies this trend.

    Rents are dipping, but they are all still in positive territory, as as Cate mentions, the rental growth is still outstripping CPI.

    "Any other precedent would say that these are huge numbers, but they've come off the boil a long way," says Mike.

    Rental increases now are normalised now though, and as Peter Koulizos has said before, rents had to play catch-up.


    Rental yields have decreased substantially for many regional cities, and Cate considers some of the challenges and changes that have impacted quite a few regional markets since COVID lockdowns.

    Sales and listing activity is a great insight into market supply. Cate doesn't expect listing figures to dramatically increase and she hints that pent up demand could show itself in early January in the larger markets. Could the start of 2025 be a bit different to recent past years? Tune in to find out.

    Contrasting the listing figures from October to November tells an interesting story too. Hobart's decrease in listings when contrasted against this time last year is significant. What is happening in Hobart?

    The Trio chat about the pressure on the RBA to control monetary policy, and they consider the key drivers and data points that our RBA are keeping a close watch on. From productivity to services inflation, unemployment to public sector job growth, (just to name a few) there are plenty of moving parts that remain a challenge.

    The quarterly GDP figures are out for the month of September and the strongest segment leading the charge is Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing at 6.5%.

    Lastly, the Trio share their thoughts on when the next rate movement could be!

    Show Notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2024/12/16/ep-288-nov-market-update/
    Show more Show less
    43 mins