The Property Trio

By: Cate Bakos David Johnston and Mike Mortlock
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  • Summary

  • Formerly The Property Planner, Buyer and Professor, our show rebranded in 2023 to The Property Trio.

    Residential property is the only asset class we live in, it is where we raise our families, and it is our most expensive investment, yet property advice remains unregulated. Our objective is to educate time-poor professionals through deep insights from our experts who have provided thousands of Australians with personalised advice and education spanning two decades. In a climate where we are overloaded with information and one size fits all recommendations from the media, well-meaning friends and family and so-called advisers, we will distill the raw truth from the ill-informed.

    So join the Property Planner, David Johnston, The Property Buyer, Cate Bakos and the Quantity Surveyor, Mike Mortlock as they take you on a journey of discovery through the maze of property, mortgage, and money decisions to empower you to create your ideal lifestyle!
    Copyright The Property Trio
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Economics Personal Finance
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Episodes
  • #295: The Trio’s Top Predictions for 2025 - What’s in Store for the Property Market?

    #295: The Trio’s Top Predictions for 2025 - What’s in Store for the Property Market?
    Feb 3 2025
    Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXMIt's another bumper episode, and we promise we won't keep clocking one hour eps.Following on from last week's retrospective on how the Trio went with their 2024 predictions, this time they each shared their 2025 predictions.What will the market do? - Cate thinks that 2025 will be a better market than 2024. Cate guesstimates 7.5% growth, nationally. Mike thinks a slight underperformance is on the cards when contrasting 2025 to 2024. Mike's national growth prediction is 4%, and Dave's prediction for national growth is closely aligned with Mike's, at 3%.Dave pitches 2026 the year of strong performance.Capital city top performers - The Trio aren't completely aligned with their top three picks. Cate kicks off with her predictions Adelaide, Perth and Melbourne, (in this order). Cate expands on her reasons and Adelaide's economic health, job growth and irresistible pull for visitors holds it in good stead for Cate. But why has Cate picked Melbourne at number three? Tune in to find out.Mike's selection is Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide.Dave is very optimistic about Perth's performance this year, but he shares some 2026 confidence in the Melbourne market. His runners up are Adelaide and Melbourne for 2025. Regional locations - The Trio have an array of regional locations, including Townsville, Toowoomba, Gold Coast and surrounds. While they are all aligned with their optimism about the QLD regions, NSW and Victoria get a special mention too. Cate comments about the relative affordability and appeal of regional Tasmanian cities too, but she ponders how WA regions will travel in 2025. Dave suggests that regional SA will be in the top three regional performers.Investor numbers - With rate cuts and higher rental yields, will investor numbers grow from the 2024 numbers? Mike concurs and thinks a 10% increase in investor lending will follow in 2025, while Dave goes into some good detail about specific states and investor numbers. Cate considers the potential affect of share market volatility, and the impact of increasing intergenerational wealth, too.Government intervention in property market - Cate is doubtful that Victoria will receive any further tightening of rental legislation, and Mike agrees. The spotlight could be on investors if they become too strong a force against first homebuyer numbers. What could happen if the coalition form government? And will APRA consider easing the 3% credit buffer in 2025? Tune in to hear their thoughts.Developers and building - What incentives will be offered to increase new builds and ease housing affordability? From Rent to Buy, to offering increased returns for new property, Dave has a few ideas. Cate predicts some more cost-effective, private, builders will free up and this could impact our current market segmentation. Cate, Mike and Dave estimate increased building starts for 2025 with some specific percentages each....Interest rates - the Trio have a bit of fun with this. After last year's predictions, they decided to be much more specific with their predictions. From Rate Tracker data, to election timing and inflation figures, our three muskateers name the months, the retrospective rate movements and the total 2025 net interest rate movement.Rents/Vacancy rates - Which cities will relax back to historical norms, and which will stay tight? Or will the capital cities all move in sync? The Trio have varied predictions, ensuring they keep it entertaining for the listeners.Sales volumes - Considering consumer confidence, listing volumes, and vendor-commitment to selling is important when predicting sales volumes. Cate reflects on the year that was, and contrasts some of the situations that vendors will be facing in 2025. What makes vendors sit on their hands? Mike considers some of the challenges we may face. Dave holds greater hope for the back half of 2025, reminding us all that he is anticipating a brighter 2026.Risks which could impact the market - Cate kicks the discussion off with her concerns; Overseas migration reduction threatening economic prosperity, China and US trade sanctions, Higher oil prices, APRA intervention with investor activity, Stock market corrections, and Unemployment rising faster than forecasted. Mike forewarns us about insurance woes, and in particular in relation to natural disasters He also touches on global conflict and the severe impact conflict can have on the property market. Resource prices, Immigration and Construction undersupply are also on Mike's list. Dave tops up the list with the following: Waning productivity in our nation, Poor political decisions in relation to government debt, More taxes on investors and The breakdown of our relationship with China.Inflation - The Trio are all very exacting with their predicted figures. Who will get it right? Who will get it ...
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    58 mins
  • #294: A Recap of the 2024 Year in Property – And Our 2024 Prediction Hits, Misses, Lessons and Surprises

    #294: A Recap of the 2024 Year in Property – And Our 2024 Prediction Hits, Misses, Lessons and Surprises
    Jan 27 2025
    Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXM


    The Trio love this retrospective. Each year, they predict the following year and at year end, they review their predictions and rate each other's accuracy.

    Today's show is a lot of fun, and it's our longest podcast recording ever.... sorry folks. We will try to keep it under an hour going forward.

    Dave got the best score for our first question; "What will the market do?"
    • "I think we'll see value growth of about 2% to 7% nationally next year."
    • "I think the market will be weighed down by Melbourne and Sydney as they're starting to move into negative territory."
    • "There'll be some good buying opportunities in Melbourne and Sydney for the first three to six months, but because they are about 50% of the overall Australian property market, I think they'll hold it back."
    • "I think rental growth will outstrip value growth."
    ....solid marks for Dave on this one.

    The second question was more specific. The Trio had to nominate their capital city top performers. How did they rate? Cate's claim, "I'm going to go with Adelaide as the city that nails it". While she only picked the number two, her rationale was sound and she nominated the three top performers.

    None of the Trio picked the strong regional areas though.

    Their fourth question related to investor numbers. There was almost a thirty per cent increase in investor activity, yet none of the Trio picked this trend. What gave way to it? Tune in to hear their thoughts.

    How did governments intervene in the property market? From superannuation changes to tax changes, shared equity and build to rent, our Trio did score some points on this segment of their predictions. And Mike mentioned the chance of rent caps joining the conversation.

    What about developers and new builds? What did our crew get right with their predictions? Mike sheds light on liquidations and builder challenges.

    And.... the question that everyone wants to have answered. What will happen with interest rates? The Trio share what they based their opinions and projections on, and there are some great learnings for our listeners to glean. Kudos to Governor Bullock for explaining the Reserve Board's decisions each board meeting. And just for those who wondered what Mike's prediction was? "I think we might end up getting a cut in the August meeting." Dave and Cate are still paying out on Mike.

    Rents and Vacancy rates was the next discussion topic. The consensus is that Dave won this prediction. "Vacancy rates will stay at similar levels, unfortunately. We might see a slight uptick, but they're going to stay pretty similar around record lows."
    "Rental growth, I think, will outstrip capital growth."

    The Trio's predictions around sales volumes and listings were interesting. Cate sheds light on some of the challenges that buyer's agents face with agent's anecdotal claims.

    Risks that could impact the market was an intriguing segment. Dave's geopolitical views reinforced his willingness to go for the big ticket items, every time! From Trump to China and Russia, the Trio talk about some of the global challenges we face. Cate's concern about natural disasters and insurance costs scored her points on this segment. And Mike reminded our listeners of the following. "Political intervention is the number one risk to perverting the market."

    And lastly, how did the Trio feel inflation figures would wind up in 2024? From trimmed mean figures to post-COVID challenges, the Trio thrive with this discussion. Mike and Cate concede that Dave won this challenge.

    Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/01/27/distilling-2024-predictions/
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    1 hr and 4 mins
  • #293: Market Update Dec 24 – Listings Hit 5-Year Highs, Affordable Properties Surge, National Values Slip & Adelaide Faces Unique Challenges

    #293: Market Update Dec 24 – Listings Hit 5-Year Highs, Affordable Properties Surge, National Values Slip & Adelaide Faces Unique Challenges
    Jan 20 2025
    Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXM

    The Trio enjoy regrouping after a lovely summer break. This week, they canvas the December figures. The indices deliver mixed outcomes, and overall the national monthly movement registers a slight market decrease, but what can this be put down to? There are markets within markets, and the Trio break down some of the standout results. From regional cities, to Adelaide's incredible run, there are some noteworthy stats to digest.

    AND... maybe the Trio will construct an episode on Darwin for our listeners! Stay tuned....

    Market segmentation counts for so much and the Trio point out the outperformance of the lowest quartile in six of the seven states and territories. What does this signal? And why would investors broadly target lower quartile properties? Cate shares her insights....

    Rents... good news for renters but bad news for investors? Not really. While rents aren't in double digits any longer, rental growth is still mostly above CPI. Cate steps through some of the considerations that owners need to apply when considering rental increases.

    "But it's listings that i tend to get excited about because they filter through into our market dynamics."

    New listing volumes were decent last year. They were at or above the five year average. However, all listings were below the previous five year average, but the tightening was a reflection of stronger listing volumes in 2024.

    The Westpac consumer sentiment index is a powerful glimpse at times, and Jan 2025 reveals some interesting changes.

    Time to buy a dwelling, family finance, and annualised interest rate expectations... as the Westpac release suggests, "The consumer mood has soured for two months in a row and remains on the pessimistic side. However... consumers expect things to continue to improve from here."

    Lastly, the Trio wonder what predictive ability the ASX's rate tracker has when it comes to signalling specific dates for rate cuts.... only time will tell, but February is looking interesting!

    The portion of lending for investment housing is significantly above recent historical levels. Wealth effect? Comfort with no further rate increases? What has driven this?

    Dave points out some of the interesting indices across the varying data houses. Simple indexes can pick up some changes sooner, and Dave has some great insights for our listeners to consider.

    Show notes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2025/01/20/ep-293-dec-market-update/
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    48 mins

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