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The Predictioneer's Game
- Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future
- Narrated by: Sean Runnette
- Length: 9 hrs and 32 mins
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Publisher's summary
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a master of game theory, which is a fancy label for a simple idea: People compete, and they always do what they think is in their own best interest. Bueno de Mesquita uses game theory and its insights into human behavior to predict and even engineer political, financial, and personal events. His forecasts, which have been employed by everyone from the CIA to major business firms, have an amazing 90 percent accuracy rate, and in this dazzling and revelatory book he shares his startling methods and lets you play along in a range of high-stakes negotiations and conflicts.
Revealing the origins of game theory and the advances made by John Nash, the Nobel Prize—winning scientist perhaps best known from A Beautiful Mind, Bueno de Mesquita details the controversial and cold-eyed system of calculation that he has since created, one that allows individuals to think strategically about what their opponents want, how much they want it, and how they might react to every move. From there, Bueno de Mesquita games such events as the North Korean disarmament talks and the Middle East peace process and recalls, among other cases, how he correctly predicted which corporate clients of the Arthur Andersen accounting firm were most likely engaged in fraudulent activity (hint: one of them started with an E). And looking as ever to the future, Bueno de Mesquita also demonstrates how game theory can provide successful strategies to combat both global warming (instead of relying on empty regulations, make nations compete in technology) and terror (figure out exactly how much U.S. aid will make Pakistan fight the Taliban).
But as Bueno de Mesquita shows, game theory isn’t just for saving the world. It can help you in your own life, whether you want to succeed in a lawsuit (lawyers argue too much the merits of the case and question too little the motives of their opponents), elect the CEO of your company (change the system of voting on your board to be more advantageous to your candidate), or even buy a car (start by knowing exactly what you want, call every dealer in a fifty-mile radius, and negotiate only over the phone).
Savvy, provocative, and shockingly effective, The Predictioneer’s Game will change how you understand the world and manage your future. Life’s a game, and how you play is whether you win or lose.
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Critic reviews
“Bruce Bueno de Mesquita has demonstrated the power of using game theory and related assumptions of rational and self-seeking behavior in predicting the outcome of important political and legal processes. No one will fail to appreciate and learn from this well-written and always interesting account of his procedures.”—Kenneth Arrow, Nobel Prize-winning economist; Professor Emeritus, Stanford University
“The Predictioneer's Game teaches us that we can predict how a conflict may be resolved if we carefully consider the incentives for all parties in the conflict. In an extraordinary range of applications, from ancient history to tomorrow's headlines, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita demonstrates the power of the game-theoretic approach.”—Roger B. Myerson, Nobel Prize-winning economist; Professor, University of Chicago
“Organized thought applied to problems can illuminate and help solve them. This easy and enjoyable read is, in many ways, a how-to book for that very purpose.”—George P. Shultz, former U.S. Secretary of State
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By: Benn Steil
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Adapt
- Why Success Always Starts with Failure
- By: Tim Harford
- Narrated by: Jonathan Keeble
- Length: 9 hrs and 53 mins
- Unabridged
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In this groundbreaking work, Tim Harford shows us a new and inspiring approach to solving the most pressing problems in our lives. Harford argues that today’s challenges simply cannot be tackled with ready-made solutions and expert opinions; the world has become far too unpredictable and profoundly complex. Instead, we must adapt. Deftly weaving together psychology, evolutionary biology, anthropology, physics, and economics, along with compelling stories of hard-won lessons learned in the field, Harford makes a passionate case for the importance of adaptive trial-and-error....
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Hidden Agenda
- By Lawrence on 05-20-13
By: Tim Harford
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Moral Mazes
- The World of Corporate Managers
- By: Robert Jackall
- Narrated by: Johnny Heller
- Length: 12 hrs and 20 mins
- Unabridged
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Robert Jackall's Moral Mazes offers an eye-opening account of how corporate managers think the world works, and how big organizations shape moral consciousness. Based on extensive interviews with managers at every level of two industrial firms and of a large public relations agency, IMoral Mazes takes the reader inside the intricate world of the corporation.
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Well written; poorly narrated
- By C. Youngblood on 09-30-13
By: Robert Jackall
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Private Empire
- ExxonMobil and American Power
- By: Steve Coll
- Narrated by: Malcolm Hillgartner
- Length: 24 hrs and 16 mins
- Unabridged
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Steve Coll investigates the largest and most powerful private corporation in the United States, revealing the true extent of its power. ExxonMobil’s annual revenues are larger than the economic activity in the great majority of countries. In many of the countries where it conducts business, ExxonMobil’s sway over politics and security is greater than that of the United States embassy. In Washington, ExxonMobil spends more money lobbying Congress and the White House than almost any other corporation. Yet despite its outsized influence, it is a black box.
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Please no more accents!
- By Zak on 07-24-12
By: Steve Coll
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Friend and Foe
- When to Cooperate, When to Compete, and How to Succeed at Both
- By: Adam D. Galinsky, Maurice E. Schweitzer
- Narrated by: Tom Perkins
- Length: 9 hrs and 1 min
- Unabridged
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In Friend and Foe, researchers Galinsky and Schweitzer explain why this debate misses the mark. Rather than being hardwired to compete or cooperate, humans have evolved to do both. It is only by learning how to strike the right balance between these two forces that we can improve our long-term relationships and get more of what we want.
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Unexpected
- By Garron Rose on 01-05-16
By: Adam D. Galinsky, and others
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In Defense of Troublemakers
- The Power of Dissent in Life and Business
- By: Charlan Nemeth
- Narrated by: Joyce Bean
- Length: 6 hrs and 2 mins
- Unabridged
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We've decided by consensus that consensus is good. In In Defense of Troublemakers, psychologist Charlan Nemeth argues that this principle is completely wrong: left unchallenged, the majority opinion is often biased, unoriginal, or false. It leads planes and markets to crash, causes juries to convict innocent people, and can quite literally make people think blue is green. In the name of comity, we embrace stupidity. We can make better decisions by embracing dissent. Dissent forces us to question the status quo, consider more information, and engage in creative decision-making.
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A Good Review of Group Thinking
- By J. Justice on 03-20-24
By: Charlan Nemeth
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Why Intelligence Fails
- Lessons from the Iranian Revolution and the Iraq War (Cornell Studies in Security Affairs Series)
- By: Robert L. Jervis
- Narrated by: Kevin Pierce
- Length: 11 hrs and 37 mins
- Unabridged
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The U.S. government spends enormous resources each year on the gathering and analysis of intelligence, yet the history of American foreign policy is littered with missteps and misunderstandings that have resulted from intelligence failures. In Why Intelligence Fails, Robert Jervis examines the politics and psychology of two of the more spectacular intelligence failures in recent memory: the belief that the Shah in Iran was secure and stable in 1978, and the claim that Iraq had active WMD programs in 2002.
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It’s complicated
- By "btomaz" on 12-15-22
By: Robert L. Jervis
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All Measures Short of War
- The Contest for the Twenty-First Century and the Future of American Power
- By: Thomas J. Wright
- Narrated by: Keith Sellon-Wright
- Length: 8 hrs and 3 mins
- Unabridged
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Russia and China are increasingly revisionist in their regions. The Middle East appears to be unraveling. And many Americans question why the United States ought to lead. What will great power competition look like in the decades ahead? What impact will geopolitics have on globalization? And what strategy should the United States pursue to succeed in an increasingly competitive world? In this book, Thomas Wright explains how major powers will compete fiercely even as they try to avoid war with each other.
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Globalist propaganda
- By Anthony Colosimo Jr on 07-10-21
By: Thomas J. Wright
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The Power and Independence of the Federal Reserve
- By: Peter Conti-Brown
- Narrated by: Brian Holsopple
- Length: 10 hrs and 40 mins
- Unabridged
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The independence of the Federal Reserve is considered a cornerstone of its identity, crucial for keeping monetary policy decisions free of electoral politics. But do we really understand what is meant by "Federal Reserve independence"? Using scores of examples from the Fed's rich history, The Power and Independence of the Federal Reserve shows that much common wisdom about the nation's central bank is inaccurate.
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Meandering, gossipy, a bit pop-journalistic
- By Philo on 10-03-16
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The Myth of the Rational Voter
- Why Democracies Choose Bad Policies
- By: Bryan Caplan
- Narrated by: David Drummond
- Length: 8 hrs and 44 mins
- Unabridged
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The greatest obstacle to sound economic policy is not entrenched special interests or rampant lobbying, but the popular misconceptions, irrational beliefs, and personal biases held by ordinary voters. This is economist Bryan Caplan's sobering assessment in this provocative and eye-opening book.
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Refreshing
- By Lyle Wincentsen on 05-12-11
By: Bryan Caplan
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How Democracy Ends
- By: David Runciman
- Narrated by: David Runciman
- Length: 7 hrs and 39 mins
- Unabridged
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Since the end of World War II, democracy's sweep across the globe seemed inexorable. Yet today, it seems radically imperiled, even in some of the world's most stable democracies. How bad could things get? In How Democracy Ends, David Runciman argues that we are trapped in outdated 20th-century ideas of democratic failure. By fixating on coups and violence, we are focusing on the wrong threats. Our societies are too affluent, too elderly, and too networked to fall apart as they did in the past. We need new ways of thinking the unthinkable....
By: David Runciman
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A Journey
- My Political Life
- By: Tony Blair
- Narrated by: Tony Blair
- Length: 16 hrs and 4 mins
- Abridged
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This is Tony Blair’s firsthand account of his years in office and beyond. Here he describes for the first time his role in shaping our recent history, from the aftermath of Princess Diana’s death to the war on terror. He reveals the decisions necessary to reinvent his party, the relationships with colleagues including Gordon Brown, the negotiations for peace in Northern Ireland, the implementation of the biggest reforms to public services in Britain since 1945, and his relationships with leaders on the world stage.
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History can only ever be accepted judgments
- By W. J. Young on 09-14-10
By: Tony Blair
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The Putin Interviews
- Oliver Stone Interviews Vladimir Putin
- By: Oliver Stone
- Narrated by: Pete Cross, Qarie Marshall
- Length: 9 hrs and 45 mins
- Unabridged
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Supplemented with referential information and culled from more than a dozen interviews with Putin over a two-year period - spanning Stone's first trip to Moscow to meet with NSA whistle-blower Edward Snowden to his most recent visit after the election of President Donald Trump - The Putin Interviews is based on what journalists, news organizations, and other world leaders have long coveted: extended, unprecedented access to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
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A for Effort...but I nearly puked.
- By Godson Ugochukwu on 08-13-18
By: Oliver Stone
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The Precipice
- Neoliberalism, the Pandemic and the Urgent Need for Social Change
- By: Noam Chomsky, C.J. Polychroniou
- Narrated by: Eric Jason Martin
- Length: 13 hrs and 18 mins
- Unabridged
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In The Precipice, Noam Chomsky sheds light into the phenomenon of Trumpism, exposes the catastrophic nature and impact of Trump's policies on people, the environment, and the planet as a whole, and captures the dynamics of the brutal class warfare launched by the masters of capital to maintain and even enhance the features of a dog-eat-dog society to the unprecedented mobilization of millions of people against neoliberal capitalism, racism, and police violence.
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Of Incalculable Importance
- By Anonymous User on 12-15-21
By: Noam Chomsky, and others
What listeners say about The Predictioneer's Game
Average customer ratingsReviews - Please select the tabs below to change the source of reviews.
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- Berumen Towing
- 03-04-19
really logical
I found this book interesting. it helped me to ask for the most important questions to solve things and get the best outcome of any situation.
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- Kim Drnec
- 08-01-14
Eye-opening
If you could sum up The Predictioneer's Game in three words, what would they be?
Eye-opening to the power of math
What was one of the most memorable moments of The Predictioneer's Game?
When I realized human nature is not really bad, it just is, and it can largely be predicted if we remember that we are all out to make the best decision for ourselves without necessarily wanting to badly affect others.
Which character – as performed by Sean Runnette – was your favorite?
It's a non-fiction with no characters
If you were to make a film of this book, what would the tag line be?
Mathematics explains human nature
Any additional comments?
If you know anything, really even just a little, about game theory and if you like math this is a fascinating proof that our behavior isn't as mysterious as we might think.
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2 people found this helpful
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- dubraska p.
- 04-25-19
Great book
This is a book that needs to be listen twice for full understanding, it’s great and I will get back to it sooner than later.
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- Sojournalist
- 07-14-10
Interesting material, missing figures
BBdM has an interesting quantitative approach to political science and this book shines in its description of using it to solve current events issues.
I am disappointed that the figures referred to in the book are not available as a .pdf download, as I have gotten from numerous other Audible books.
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4 people found this helpful
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- Roland
- 12-06-10
doubts remain: science or scam?
The author thinks politics can be modeled as games and simulated by a computer, thus the outcome of the simulation is an accurate prediction of the future, or can be used to nudge the outcome to a desirable position. This is an intriguing proposal for the listener. Unfortunately the Author gives only a glimpse on how his method works, and refers always to the "new algorithm" without describing it. Further, his hit score of over 90% sounds absurdly high, not to mention that he explains away the remaining 10%.
I have written him to disclose his algorithm a week ago and still waiting an answer.
Neverthanless I got really interested in game theory trought this audiobook even if the pleasant narrators voice did not reveal much about this modern and actual topic
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1 person found this helpful
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- Mark T
- 02-01-12
Where are the figures?
Would you say that listening to this book was time well-spent? Why or why not?
The book relies on a pretty significant number of figures. Where are they? Most audible books have an attachment at this point.
Also, the reader's style is off for this book. It's almost as if he's reading a romance novel, which the book is not.
How did the narrator detract from the book?
A soft and perhaps sensuous voice, which doesn't really fit the topic.
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4 people found this helpful
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- Trevor
- 10-22-18
Neat book, needs figures
Neat book, needs a figure sheet though. Most 9ther audiobooks, including others by Bueno de Mesqita come with them, so what gives?
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Overall
- Ted Tschopp
- 11-23-09
Great Book, but the second file is screwed up
Great book so far, but the second file is screwed up.
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- Francisco Carlos De Villa Soto
- 08-01-18
A book to read, not to listen to.
This is a book that should be read, not listened to because it has many illustrations that are not shown and are mentioned in the reading. Besides that, it is a must read.
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- Joni23
- 06-13-13
Don't make this a habit audible!
What did you like best about The Predictioneer's Game? What did you like least?
As you can see in figure 2.4, my opinion of this book is very clear. The left axis represents my enjoyment of the book and the right axis represents the book over time. From the graph the reasons for my opinion should be clear.
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10 people found this helpful