How to Expect the Unexpected Audiobook By Kit Yates cover art

How to Expect the Unexpected

The Science of Making Predictions—and the Art of Knowing When Not To

Preview
LIMITED TIME OFFER

3 months free
Try for $0.00
Offer ends July 31, 2025 at 11:59PM PT.
Pick 1 audiobook a month from our unmatched collection.
Listen all you want to thousands of included audiobooks, Originals, and podcasts.
Access exclusive sales and deals.
Premium Plus auto-renews for $14.95/mo after 3 months. Cancel anytime.

How to Expect the Unexpected

By: Kit Yates
Narrated by: Kit Yates
Try for $0.00

$0.00/mo. after 3 months. Offer ends July 31, 2025 at 11:59PM PT. Cancel anytime.

Buy for $25.19

Buy for $25.19

Confirm purchase
Pay using card ending in
By confirming your purchase, you agree to Audible's Conditions of Use, License, and Amazon's Privacy Notice. Taxes where applicable.
Cancel

A “vivid, wide-ranging, and delightful guide” (bestselling author Tim Harford) for understanding how and why predictions go wrong, with practical tips to give you a better chance of getting them right

How can you be 100 percent sure you will win a bet? Why did so many Pompeians stay put while Mount Vesuvius was erupting? Are you more likely to work in a kitchen if your last name is Baker? Ever since the dawn of human civilization, we have been trying to make predictions about what the world has in store for us. For just as long, we have been getting it wrong. In How to Expect the Unexpected, mathematician Kit Yates uncovers the surprising science that undergirds our predictions—and how we can use it to our advantage.

From religious oracles to weather forecasters, and from politicians to economists, we are subjected to poor predictions all the time. Synthesizing results from math, biology, psychology, sociology, medicine, economic theory, and physics, Yates provides tools for listeners to understand uncertainty and to recognize the cognitive biases that make accurate predictions so hard to come by.

This book will teach you how and why predictions go wrong, help you to spot phony forecasts, and give you a better chance of getting your own predictions correct.

PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying PDF will be available in your Audible Library along with the audio.

©2023 Kit Yates (P)2023 Basic Books
Career Success Decision-Making & Problem Solving Mathematics Science Career

Listeners also enjoyed...

The 7 Laws of Magical Thinking Audiobook By Matthew Hutson cover art
The 7 Laws of Magical Thinking By: Matthew Hutson
The Math of Life and Death Audiobook By Kit Yates cover art
The Math of Life and Death By: Kit Yates
Same as Ever Audiobook By Morgan Housel cover art
Same as Ever By: Morgan Housel
The Coming Wave Audiobook By Mustafa Suleyman, Michael Bhaskar - contributor cover art
The Coming Wave By: Mustafa Suleyman, and others
Elon Musk Audiobook By Walter Isaacson cover art
Elon Musk By: Walter Isaacson
Hidden Potential Audiobook By Adam Grant cover art
Hidden Potential By: Adam Grant
Going Infinite Audiobook By Michael Lewis cover art
Going Infinite By: Michael Lewis
Determined Audiobook By Robert M. Sapolsky cover art
Determined By: Robert M. Sapolsky
Material World Audiobook By Ed Conway cover art
Material World By: Ed Conway
The Fund Audiobook By Rob Copeland cover art
The Fund By: Rob Copeland
Most Delicious Poison Audiobook By Noah Whiteman cover art
Most Delicious Poison By: Noah Whiteman
Think Faster, Talk Smarter Audiobook By Matt Abrahams cover art
Think Faster, Talk Smarter By: Matt Abrahams
Clear Thinking Audiobook By Shane Parrish cover art
Clear Thinking By: Shane Parrish
The Maniac Audiobook By Benjamin Labatut cover art
The Maniac By: Benjamin Labatut
Number Go Up Audiobook By Zeke Faux cover art
Number Go Up By: Zeke Faux
The Identity Trap Audiobook By Yascha Mounk cover art
The Identity Trap By: Yascha Mounk
Areté Audiobook By Brian Johnson, Phil Stutz - foreword cover art
Areté By: Brian Johnson, and others
Misbelief Audiobook By Dan Ariely cover art
Misbelief By: Dan Ariely
The Signal and the Noise Audiobook By Nate Silver cover art
The Signal and the Noise By: Nate Silver
Thinking, Fast and Slow Audiobook By Daniel Kahneman cover art
Thinking, Fast and Slow By: Daniel Kahneman

Critic reviews

“In this smart study… The survey of the mind’s biases intrigues, and the author excels at demonstrating their real-world effects. … It’s a safe bet that readers will take to this.”—Publishers Weekly

“Yates’ tour of the predictions business covers much interesting ground, which he tills with an entertaining sense of humor.”—Kirkus

“Kit Yates presents math as it should be taught to everyone: accessible, fun, stimulating, and deeply relevant to our lives. Spend some time with this book and you're likely to make better judgements and decisions, to see through the charlatans and snake-oil salespeople—and perhaps even to fool yourself a little less.”—Philip Ball, author of the award-winning Critical Mass

People who viewed this also viewed...

The Math of Life and Death Audiobook By Kit Yates cover art
The Math of Life and Death By: Kit Yates
Everything Is Predictable Audiobook By Tom Chivers cover art
Everything Is Predictable By: Tom Chivers
No reviews yet