In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Cleo Paskal, a leading Indo-Pacific analyst and non-resident senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, to unpack the growing threat of China’s gray zone influence in the Pacific Islands and why it matters for the United States and its allies.

Paskal explains the strategic significance of the Pacific Islands, which include U.S. territories and the three Compact of Free Association states—Palau, the Marshall Islands, and the Federated States of Micronesia. These islands serve as America’s “gateway to Asia,” enabling military access and power projection across the Pacific to key allies like Japan and Taiwan. Historically, whoever controls these islands can threaten the U.S. mainland and dominate Pacific trade routes—a reality recognized since the days of President McKinley and the Spanish-American War.

Cleo prefers the Filipino term “ICAD” (Illegal, Coercive, Aggressive, and Deceptive) over “gray zone” to describe China’s activities. She details how Beijing uses a “braided” approach that combines commercial investments, strategic infrastructure, and criminal enterprises. Chinese-linked businesses often promise development but end up facilitating elite capture, corruption, and even state capture, while most of the population sees little benefit. Activities include:

• Bribery and elite capture of local officials
• Strategic port and real estate acquisitions near sensitive military sites
• Criminal networks trafficking drugs, gambling, and human trafficking
• Political interference, media manipulation, and lawfare against local opposition

The podcast explores how China’s influx of money and promises of quick infrastructure projects are hard for small island economies to resist—especially when Western aid is slow, bureaucratic, or absent. However, Cleo notes that Chinese economic engagement often benefits only a narrow elite and can leave countries worse off, both economically and environmentally. She argues that the West, especially the U.S., must offer meaningful economic alternatives and support for good governance, not just military or diplomatic engagement.

Despite U.S. political polarization, Cleo notes that support for the Pacific Islands remains bipartisan, especially regarding the renewal of the Compacts of Free Association. She also stresses that Pacific Islanders view the U.S. differently from former colonial powers, seeing America as a beacon of liberty and democracy—an image China is actively trying to undermine through narrative warfare.

This episode makes clear that the Pacific Islands are not just remote dots on the map but are central to U.S. security, the rules-based order, and the future of the Indo-Pacific. China’s gray zone campaign is a sophisticated, multi-layered threat that demands urgent, coordinated action from the U.S. and its allies—combining hard security, economic opportunity, and support for local agency and resilience.

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In this compelling episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso interview Luke de Pulford, founder and executive director of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC), who provides an in-depth look at this growing international coalition’s mission of transcending borders and party politics to reform policy on China.

IPAC is a cross-party alliance of lawmakers from democratic countries focused on reforming policy approaches toward China. Founded on June 4, 2020 (the anniversary of the Tiananmen Square protests), IPAC began with representatives from eight countries and has now expanded to include nearly 300 legislators from 40 countries worldwide.

De Pulford explains that IPAC emerged from growing frustration that many governments weren't taking the necessary steps to defend the rules-based international system, their sovereignty, and human rights in response to China's abuses. The alliance aims to create conditions for collaboration across countries and political ideologies to push governments to reform their China policies.

The conversation highlights several major areas of IPAC's focus:

1. Human Rights in Xinjiang: De Pulford discusses evidence of what he and others consider genocide against Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities in northwest China, particularly through forced sterilization programs. IPAC has led calls for political action in response to these abuses.
2. Hong Kong's Autonomy: The alliance has been active in responding to China's National Security Law in Hong Kong, which violated promises made in the Sino-British Joint Declaration. De Pulford expresses disappointment that his own country, the United Kingdom, hasn't done more to hold China accountable.
3. Economic Coercion: The interview explores how China uses economic leverage to silence criticism, citing examples like Australia facing 220% tariffs on wine after calling for an investigation into COVID-19's origins.
4. Transnational Repression: De Pulford shares concerning examples of China's efforts to control dissidents abroad, including the recent forced repatriation of Uyghurs from Thailand.

The alliance has seen many of its members progress into influential government positions, including Marco Rubio becoming U.S. Secretary of State and other members taking defense and foreign ministry positions across Europe and Asia. This "maturing of the network" has increased IPAC's ability to influence policy.

De Pulford argues that addressing human rights issues in China requires economic solutions, as "the human rights questions in China are fundamentally economic questions." He points to successes like Volkswagen and BASF withdrawing from Xinjiang under pressure from IPAC politicians.

The interview concludes with De Pulford discussing the personal costs of his advocacy, including cyber attacks, impersonation attempts, and being named as a "co-conspirator" in Jimmy Lai's trial in Hong Kong. Despite these challenges, he remains committed to IPAC's mission of uniting lawmakers to counter China's influence and protect democratic values.

👉 For those interested in following IPAC's work, De Pulford recommends visiting ipac.global or following @IPACglobal on X.

🔥 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Retired General Mike Minihan, former commander of Air Mobility Command and deputy commander of US Indo-Pacific Command, joins Jim and Ray to talk about how America’s alarming shortfall in military airlift could affect deterrence and readiness in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.

General Minihan describes logistics as "the offensive line of a [American] football team"--rarely getting the glory but essential to success. He emphasizes that mobility is "the most relied upon force in the history of warfare" and particularly crucial in the Indo-Pacific region, where vast distances and water create unique challenges compared to Europe's more accessible infrastructure.

"Mobility is the meaningful maneuver that can cross the tyranny of distance and the tyranny of water," Minihan explains, highlighting how air mobility enables the joint force to reach positions of advantage in meaningful timeframes.

The conversation turns to Minihan's famous 2022 memo warning that the U.S. was "not ready to fight and win inside the first island chain" and needed to prepare for potential conflict by 2025. Despite the controversy it generated, Minihan stands by his assessment, explaining it was intended to drive urgent action and focus his command on Pacific readiness.

"I don't regret it," Minihan states, though he acknowledges the turbulence it caused. "I learned I was right."

Minihan identifies several critical areas requiring immediate attention:

1. Communication Systems: Over 90% of the air mobility fleet lacks adequate secure beyond-line-of-sight communications. Commercial airliners often have better connectivity than military aircraft.
2. Next-Generation Systems: The Air Force needs to conceptualize air refueling and airlift as systems rather than individual platforms, potentially including stealth-like tankers for forward operations and diversified airlift capabilities.
3. Procurement Reform: The current acquisition system is fundamentally broken. "Our major producers of American capabilities can no longer deliver on time, at cost," Minihan asserts.

Minihan calls for "bold, unapologetic, urgent action" rather than more studies or reorganizations. He advocates for:

• Clear, precise language about deterring and defeating China, rather than vague terms like "great power competition"
• Robust planning focused on immediate readiness
• Streamlining the acquisition process to work with innovative companies beyond traditional prime contractors
• Ensuring the warfighter's voice is the "loudest in the room"

"We should never put the president in a position where they are constrained by not having a military that's ready to decisively defeat," Minihan emphasizes.

To allies in the Indo-Pacific, Minihan offers reassurance that military-to-military relationships remain strong and stable despite political fluctuations.

While acknowledging improvements in readiness, integration, and agility, Minihan stresses the need to "continue to expand the advantage" through rigorous exercises and close cooperation with partners and allies.

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This episode features Nitin A. Gokhale, one of South Asia’s leading strategic affairs analysts, who joins co-hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to break down the ongoing conflict along the India-Pakistan border, offering expert insight into its origins, recent triggers and global stakes.

The conflict’s roots trace back to the 1947 partition of India and the disputed territory of Jammu and Kashmir, which has sparked four wars between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. Tensions reignited recently after a terrorist attack in Kashmir, where militants targeted and killed Hindu tourists. Pakistani terrorist groups such as Lashkar-e-Toiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed are allegedly supported by the Pakistani military and intelligence services.

In retaliation, India conducted strikes against terrorist camps in Pakistan-administered Kashmir and, for the first time, across the Kashmir border into Pakistan’s homeland. India emphasized that its response was targeted, non-escalatory, and focused solely on terrorist infrastructure, aiming to avoid a broader military confrontation.

Gokhale explains that Pakistan’s internal instability--including insurgencies in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, strained relations with the Taliban and political unrest--may have influenced the timing of the attack. The Pakistani military, facing low public confidence and political challenges, may have sought to rally domestic support by provoking a crisis with India.

With both countries possessing nuclear weapons, the stakes are high. Gokhale suggests that international pressure and Pakistan’s internal weaknesses could create an off-ramp for de-escalation. India’s careful messaging and restraint are designed to reinforce deterrence without inviting a full-scale war.

The discussion explores the influence of China, Russia, the United States, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. While India insists on bilateral solutions, outside actors may quietly urge restraint to protect their own interests in regional stability and economic ties.

The episode delves into the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty, a critical agreement for Pakistan’s agriculture. India’s move to withhold hydrological data and potentially control water flows adds another layer of pressure on Pakistan.

Gokhale contextualizes India’s actions within Prime Minister Modi’s security philosophy: resolute on the border, reasonable in diplomacy. Modi’s approach favors decisive retaliation against cross-border terrorism while avoiding unnecessary escalation.

The India-Pakistan border conflict is not just a regional issue–it has global implications due to the risk of nuclear escalation, the involvement of major powers and the precedent it sets for responding to state-sponsored terrorism. Understanding the dynamics at play is essential for anyone interested in international security, South Asian geopolitics or global peace.

👉 Follow Nitin's analysis of this conflict and South Asia security at StratNewsGlobal.com, or check out his book, Securing India the Modi Way.

🔥 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

How will Australia's dramatic election results impact its domestic, regional and global political and economic affairs? In this special episode–originally aired live–hosts Jim Carouso and Ray Powell are joined by special guests Mick McNeill and Michael Rowland for an in-depth discussion on Australia's changing political landscape and the election’s far-reaching implications, including:

• A comprehensive breakdown of the Australian Labor Party’s decisive win, and what’s next for a reeling Liberal-National Party coalition as it faces the implications of its dramatic collapse at the polls.
• An explanation of how Australia’s compulsory voting and preferential (ranked-choice) ballot helps the country avoid extremes.
• Why reactions to U.S. President Donald Trump played an outsized role in Australia’s political environment.
• How these political shifts will affect Australia’s international business and trade relationships–especially with the United States–during a time of global uncertainty.
• How the results will impact the country’s ongoing transition to renewable energy sources and its defense planning.

The discussion provides valuable context for understanding Australia's position in the Indo-Pacific region and how recent political developments might influence regional stability and economic cooperation. Our expert guests offer unique perspectives on how businesses and policymakers should navigate this changing environment.

Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast; or on LinkedIn or BlueSky at our show title, Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?

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Our podcast is produced by Ian Ellis-Jones and IEJ Media (on X @ianellisjones or LinkedIn).

This podcast is sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Paul Everingham joins Ray and Jim to explain that liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand in Asia is expected to nearly double by 2050. The initial growth will be driven by North Asia (especially China), with South Asia and Southeast Asia becoming the main growth centers after 2035. This surge is tied to Asia’s rapid economic development, growing energy needs, and the region’s transition from coal.

Asia is projected to account for 50% of global economic growth and a growing share of global emissions. Addressing energy needs and emissions in Asia is crucial for global climate goals and humanitarian progress, as many Asian countries still rely heavily on coal and lack access to clean energy and modern amenities.

Paul describes LNG as more than just a bridge to renewables—it’s vital for economic and national security, and asserts that LNG is cleaner than coal and oil and provides reliable "baseload" and "peaking" power, which renewables like wind and solar currently can’t match due to their intermittency and storage limitations.

The Biden administration’s pause on US LNG export facilities was discussed, with Paul arguing that such moves are more political than scientific. He stresses that immediate transitions from coal to renewables aren’t feasible in Asia due to infrastructure and storage constraints, and that gas is essential for meeting Paris climate commitments.

Despite a slowing economy and population decline, China’s energy demand is rising as it seeks to reduce new coal plant construction and diversify gas imports away from reliance on Russia. China is investing in both renewables and LNG to ensure energy security.

The conversation highlights that global energy demand is rising, not just shifting. Coal use is at record highs, and the US is facing new surges in energy demand due to AI and data centers. Paul advocates for an "all of the above" approach, including nuclear, gas, and renewables, to meet growing needs.

Paul says LNG offers more flexible supply options than pipeline gas, reducing dependency on single suppliers. However, building out LNG infrastructure is capital-intensive and complex. The US, Qatar, and Australia are the dominant LNG exporters, but the US is expected to become the leading supplier by 2040, especially as Asian demand grows.

Qatar is a major player due to its vast gas reserves and strategic, conservative development. Indonesia and Malaysia were early LNG exporters, but their fields are now in decline. The US, with its massive shale gas reserves, is poised to shape global markets, especially as new fields come online.

The vulnerability of LNG supply lines to blockades (e.g., Taiwan) and the strategic importance of the South China Sea’s energy resources were discussed. China’s control over disputed areas impacts the ability of countries like the Philippines and Vietnam to develop their own gas fields.

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This podcast is sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

In this compelling episode of "Why Should We Care about the Indo-Pacific," hosts Ray Powell and James Carouso welcome Joe Hockey, former Australian Treasurer and Ambassador to the United States. Hockey, who now heads Bondi Partners, offers unique insights into U.S.-Australia relations during both Trump administrations.

Episode Highlights:

Hockey shares his firsthand experience of "Trumpageddon" during the transition from Obama to Trump's first administration, describing it as a "political tsunami" that hit Washington DC. He contrasts Trump 1.0's disorganization with Trump 2.0's more predictable but aggressive "political blitzkrieg" approach.

The conversation explores recent challenges in the alliance, including new tariffs on Australian steel and aluminum under Trump's second term. Hockey explains how Australia previously secured exemptions during Trump's first term by emphasizing their status as America's closest ally according to Republican voters and highlighting their trade deficit with the U.S.

When discussing concerns about the reliability of the U.S. alliance, Hockey dismisses what he calls "alarmist" views, emphasizing the deep integration between the two nations' military and intelligence communities. He pointedly asks, "What is Plan B?" when considering alternatives to the U.S. alliance, especially in light of recent Chinese naval exercises near Australia.

The discussion also covers Australia's upcoming May 2025 election, defense spending needs, AUKUS submarine acquisition challenges, and the complex relationship with China. Hockey advocates for increasing Australia's defense spending to around 3% of GDP while encouraging more private sector involvement in defense infrastructure.

Hockey concludes by sharing the touching origin story of his "100 Years of Mateship" initiative, which commemorated the centennial of U.S. and Australian troops fighting side by side at the Battle of Hamel in World War I – the beginning of an unbroken alliance that continues to this day.

Don't miss this insightful conversation about one of America's most crucial alliances in an increasingly complex Indo-Pacific region.

Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast; or on LinkedIn or BlueSky at our show title, Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?

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Our podcast is produced by Ian Ellis-Jones and IEJ Media (on X @ianellisjones or LinkedIn).

This podcast is sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

Mark Lambert, the recently retired head of the State Department’s China House, joins Jim and Ray to share his insights into the impacts of America’s radical new tariff policy from his extensive diplomatic career in Asia, including postings in China, Vietnam, Thailand, and Japan.

Lambert, having just returned from a trip to Beijing, provides a unique perspective on how Chinese officials and experts are reacting to the escalating trade tensions between the two countries.

His insights include:

- President Xi Jinping's recent diplomatic tour of Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia indicates China's strategic move to contest U.S. influence in countries most affected by the tariffs

- The challenges in U.S.-China negotiations, particularly the disconnect in diplomatic approaches between President Trump's preference for direct leader-to-leader negotiations versus China's more conservative impulses

- Chinese confusion about what specifically the U.S. wants in trade negotiations

- The importance of firmly opposing China’s well-known harmful trade practices (technology theft, subsidized overcapacity) while not decoupling the entire U.S.-China economic relationship

- China's potential retaliatory measures, including restricting rare earth metals exports and reconsidering U.S. Treasury bond holdings

- The strategic value of U.S. alliances in the Indo-Pacific and concerns about how current trade policies might affect these relationships

- The fragility yet resilience of China's economic and political system, including its cultural capacity for "eating bitterness" during difficult times

- Lambert's surprising ease of travel to China as a private citizen, suggesting China's desire to encourage more American visitors despite tensions

Follow us on X, @IndoPacPodcast; or on LinkedIn or BlueSky at our show title, Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific?

Follow Ray Powell on X (@GordianKnotRay) or on LinkedIn.

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Our podcast is produced by Ian Ellis-Jones and IEJ Media (on X @ianellisjones or LinkedIn).

This podcast is sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.