In this episode, we interview Andrew Phelan, a China specialist with decades of business experience, to analyze Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's week-long diplomatic visit to China. The discussion examines critical questions about Australia's economic dependence on China, security vulnerabilities, and the broader implications for Indo-Pacific stability.

Phelan asserts that no country has benefited more from China's rise than Australia. Since China's opening under Deng Xiaoping in the 1980s, Australia has experienced unprecedented economic growth, with China transforming from a closed economy similar to North Korea today into Australia's largest trading partner. This relationship has fundamentally underwritten Australia's wealth and sustained economic expansion without recession.

However, this prosperity comes with significant risks. Australia's economy, worth just over a trillion dollars, is dwarfed by China's economic might. Unrestricted Chinese foreign direct investment could result in Australia losing its economic independence entirely. The recent rejection of Chinese acquisition attempts highlights the tension between economic opportunity and national sovereignty.

The discussion reveals concerning patterns of technology transfer, where Western corporations pursuing quarterly profits inadvertently strengthen future competitors. This short-term thinking contrasts sharply with China's long-term strategic planning and subsidies.

Phelan also cites evidence of Chinese interference in Australian elections, including AI-based communications specifically targeting the Australian-Chinese community. Following the October 7 attacks in Gaza, for example, some speeches were manipulated using AI and distributed through Chinese social media platforms to influence vulnerable community members.

The relationship between China and Australia's Labor Party raises additional concerns. Victoria's former Premier Daniel Andrews maintained controversial close ties with China, including signing the only standalone Belt and Road Initiative agreement by any global jurisdiction. This led to new federal legislation preventing such unilateral agreements.

Australia's current defense capabilities pale compared to World War II preparations. Phelan says that today's "boutique defense force" of 60,000 personnel from a 25 million person population is nowhere near adequate for current strategic challenges.

The Pentagon's AUKUS review under Elbridge Colby reflects legitimate concerns about allied preparedness. Phelan believes the best way to avoid conflict is to be as well-prepared as possible, requiring clear commitments from allies facing an increasingly assertive China.

China's objective to distance the United States from its allies shows “patchy” success. While their soft power efforts remain “clumsy” and easily identifiable, institutional influence through organizations like the Australia-China Relations Institute demonstrates more subtle approaches.

Xi Jinping's global initiatives represent an alternative operating system for the world, seeking to make Chinese governance models the default globally. This constitutes “an existential challenge to democratic governance”, requiring sustained engagement and strategic clarity from democratic nations.

The episode reveals Australia's precarious position between economic prosperity and strategic security. As China's “continuous struggle” philosophy ensures ongoing pressure, Phelan says Australia must develop a greater strategic backbone while maintaining necessary economic relationships. The challenge extends beyond Australia to all Indo-Pacific democracies navigating similar dependencies in an increasingly complex geopolitical environment.

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In a very special episode, Philippine Secretary of National Defense Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro sat down with co-host Ray Powell for an exclusive in-person interview at his Manila office, delivering insights into the Philippines' defense strategy to counter China's aggression in the West Philippine Sea.

Secretary Teodoro emphasized that defending the Philippines matters globally because maritime violations anywhere threaten the international order. "If we are to preserve an international order, imperfect as it is, then we should care if anyone's country, no matter how small, is violated," Teodoro stated. He noted that China's approach appears focused on weakening alliances between the United States and its partners.

The defense chief highlighted that multiple nations support the Philippines’ stand, including Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and European G7 countries, all facing similar challenges from Chinese gray zone aggression.

Secretary Teodoro outlined the Philippines' shift from its traditional post-invasion land defense to a proactive deterrent strategy called the Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept. This multi-domain approach recognizes that modern conflicts begin with information warfare, cyber attacks, and hybrid operations before physical invasion.

The strategy aims to secure the Philippines' 80% water, 20% land territory under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, protecting fishing grounds from Chinese coast guard, maritime militia and fishing vessels that have violated Philippine maritime rights and severely degraded its traditional fishing areas.

The defense secretary discussed modernization efforts under the Re-Horizon 3 program, moving beyond the country’s outdated 15-year planning cycles. Key investments he is pursuing include:

- Strategic infrastructure and bases to fortify outer territorial boundaries

- Secure connectivity and domain awareness across 2 million square kilometers of maritime area

- Medium-range missile capabilities and multi-role fighters

- Hybrid warfare tools, including drones and unmanned systems

- Cognitive warfare capabilities to combat PRC disinformation

- Force structure expansion beyond the current 162,000 personnel for a country of over 120 million.

Teodoro addressed China's information warfare efforts, including attempts to censor “Food Delivery”, a West Philippine Sea documentary that recently won awards in New Zealand. He also discussed confrontational tabloid tactics by China Daily reporters at Singapore's Shangri-La Dialogue.

The interview revealed the significant evolution of Philippine-Japan defense cooperation, with both nations facing similar Chinese territorial challenges. Japan's proposed "one-theater concept" creates an operational convergence between the US Indo-Pacific Command, Japan, the Philippines, and Australia, as does the country’s recently approved Reciprocal Access Agreement with Japan.

Teodoro addressed the impact on Filipino fishermen excluded from traditional fishing grounds at Scarborough Shoal. China has no right to exclude anyone from these waters, the secretary emphasized, according to international law and the landmark 2016 Arbitral Tribunal ruling.

The defense chief noted how China's West Philippine Sea actions have become the primary catalyst for international convergence in opposition to Beijing, with countries recognizing that "if China can do it here, then other countries can do it in their own areas".

Teodoro observed that 90% of Filipinos distrust China due to current leadership's actions, suggesting Chinese leadership will face accountability for damaging its international standing and uniting its adversaries in opposition.

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In Ep. 87, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso speak with Ambassador Pou Sothirak, a former Cambodian diplomat and current distinguished advisor to the Cambodian Center for Regional Studies, to unpack the complex issues facing Cambodia today. The discussion centers on the renewed border conflict with Thailand, the controversy surrounding the Ream Naval Base, and Cambodia's strategic navigation of its relationships with the United States and China.

Ambassador Sothirak provides historical context for the century-old border dispute, which has its origins in French colonial-era maps from 1907. He recounts the history of the conflict, including the International Court of Justice (ICJ) rulings in 1962 and 2013 that affirmed Cambodia's sovereignty over the Preah Vihear temple and its surrounding territory. The most recent clashes, which began in late May, are described as a "misunderstanding" at face value but are deeply entangled with issues of nationalism and domestic politics in both nations. The situation has been exacerbated by a political crisis in Thailand following a leaked phone call between the leaders of the two nations, which has brought bilateral relations to a low point. The Ambassador suggests a path forward involving third-party mediation to facilitate a truce and demilitarization of the border, followed by high-level diplomatic talks.

The conversation addresses widespread speculation that China's extensive support in upgrading the Ream Naval Base amounts to establishing a Chinese military outpost. Ambassador Sothirak dismisses this as a "myth," stating that Cambodia's constitution prohibits foreign military bases on its soil. He explains that Cambodia's collaboration with China is aimed at modernizing its own navy to safeguard its maritime security. However, he acknowledges the semi-permanent, rotating presence of Chinese ships and personnel at the base. He views the recent visit by the U.S. Secretary of Defense as a critical opportunity to dispel misconceptions and improve transparency, emphasizing that Cambodia must balance its ties between the two superpowers.

The episode explores Cambodia's foreign policy and its efforts to manage its relationships with both the U.S. and China. China is Cambodia's largest donor and source of foreign direct investment, with its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) funding essential infrastructure like power plants and highways. At the same time, the United States is Cambodia's biggest export market. Ambassador Sothirak expresses concern that potential U.S. tariffs, intended to pressure China, could inadvertently harm Cambodia's economy and push it further into China's orbit. He argues that for a small country like Cambodia, maintaining engagement with both the U.S. and China is essential for its development and sovereignty.

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