In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso sit down with Cleo Paskal, a leading Indo-Pacific analyst and non-resident senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, to unpack the growing threat of China’s gray zone influence in the Pacific Islands and why it matters for the United States and its allies.

Paskal explains the strategic significance of the Pacific Islands, which include U.S. territories and the three Compact of Free Association states—Palau, the Marshall Islands, and the Federated States of Micronesia. These islands serve as America’s “gateway to Asia,” enabling military access and power projection across the Pacific to key allies like Japan and Taiwan. Historically, whoever controls these islands can threaten the U.S. mainland and dominate Pacific trade routes—a reality recognized since the days of President McKinley and the Spanish-American War.

Cleo prefers the Filipino term “ICAD” (Illegal, Coercive, Aggressive, and Deceptive) over “gray zone” to describe China’s activities. She details how Beijing uses a “braided” approach that combines commercial investments, strategic infrastructure, and criminal enterprises. Chinese-linked businesses often promise development but end up facilitating elite capture, corruption, and even state capture, while most of the population sees little benefit. Activities include:

• Bribery and elite capture of local officials
• Strategic port and real estate acquisitions near sensitive military sites
• Criminal networks trafficking drugs, gambling, and human trafficking
• Political interference, media manipulation, and lawfare against local opposition

The podcast explores how China’s influx of money and promises of quick infrastructure projects are hard for small island economies to resist—especially when Western aid is slow, bureaucratic, or absent. However, Cleo notes that Chinese economic engagement often benefits only a narrow elite and can leave countries worse off, both economically and environmentally. She argues that the West, especially the U.S., must offer meaningful economic alternatives and support for good governance, not just military or diplomatic engagement.

Despite U.S. political polarization, Cleo notes that support for the Pacific Islands remains bipartisan, especially regarding the renewal of the Compacts of Free Association. She also stresses that Pacific Islanders view the U.S. differently from former colonial powers, seeing America as a beacon of liberty and democracy—an image China is actively trying to undermine through narrative warfare.

This episode makes clear that the Pacific Islands are not just remote dots on the map but are central to U.S. security, the rules-based order, and the future of the Indo-Pacific. China’s gray zone campaign is a sophisticated, multi-layered threat that demands urgent, coordinated action from the U.S. and its allies—combining hard security, economic opportunity, and support for local agency and resilience.

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In this compelling episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso interview Luke de Pulford, founder and executive director of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC), who provides an in-depth look at this growing international coalition’s mission of transcending borders and party politics to reform policy on China.

IPAC is a cross-party alliance of lawmakers from democratic countries focused on reforming policy approaches toward China. Founded on June 4, 2020 (the anniversary of the Tiananmen Square protests), IPAC began with representatives from eight countries and has now expanded to include nearly 300 legislators from 40 countries worldwide.

De Pulford explains that IPAC emerged from growing frustration that many governments weren't taking the necessary steps to defend the rules-based international system, their sovereignty, and human rights in response to China's abuses. The alliance aims to create conditions for collaboration across countries and political ideologies to push governments to reform their China policies.

The conversation highlights several major areas of IPAC's focus:

1. Human Rights in Xinjiang: De Pulford discusses evidence of what he and others consider genocide against Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities in northwest China, particularly through forced sterilization programs. IPAC has led calls for political action in response to these abuses.
2. Hong Kong's Autonomy: The alliance has been active in responding to China's National Security Law in Hong Kong, which violated promises made in the Sino-British Joint Declaration. De Pulford expresses disappointment that his own country, the United Kingdom, hasn't done more to hold China accountable.
3. Economic Coercion: The interview explores how China uses economic leverage to silence criticism, citing examples like Australia facing 220% tariffs on wine after calling for an investigation into COVID-19's origins.
4. Transnational Repression: De Pulford shares concerning examples of China's efforts to control dissidents abroad, including the recent forced repatriation of Uyghurs from Thailand.

The alliance has seen many of its members progress into influential government positions, including Marco Rubio becoming U.S. Secretary of State and other members taking defense and foreign ministry positions across Europe and Asia. This "maturing of the network" has increased IPAC's ability to influence policy.

De Pulford argues that addressing human rights issues in China requires economic solutions, as "the human rights questions in China are fundamentally economic questions." He points to successes like Volkswagen and BASF withdrawing from Xinjiang under pressure from IPAC politicians.

The interview concludes with De Pulford discussing the personal costs of his advocacy, including cyber attacks, impersonation attempts, and being named as a "co-conspirator" in Jimmy Lai's trial in Hong Kong. Despite these challenges, he remains committed to IPAC's mission of uniting lawmakers to counter China's influence and protect democratic values.

👉 For those interested in following IPAC's work, De Pulford recommends visiting ipac.global or following @IPACglobal on X.

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Retired General Mike Minihan, former commander of Air Mobility Command and deputy commander of US Indo-Pacific Command, joins Jim and Ray to talk about how America’s alarming shortfall in military airlift could affect deterrence and readiness in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.

General Minihan describes logistics as "the offensive line of a [American] football team"--rarely getting the glory but essential to success. He emphasizes that mobility is "the most relied upon force in the history of warfare" and particularly crucial in the Indo-Pacific region, where vast distances and water create unique challenges compared to Europe's more accessible infrastructure.

"Mobility is the meaningful maneuver that can cross the tyranny of distance and the tyranny of water," Minihan explains, highlighting how air mobility enables the joint force to reach positions of advantage in meaningful timeframes.

The conversation turns to Minihan's famous 2022 memo warning that the U.S. was "not ready to fight and win inside the first island chain" and needed to prepare for potential conflict by 2025. Despite the controversy it generated, Minihan stands by his assessment, explaining it was intended to drive urgent action and focus his command on Pacific readiness.

"I don't regret it," Minihan states, though he acknowledges the turbulence it caused. "I learned I was right."

Minihan identifies several critical areas requiring immediate attention:

1. Communication Systems: Over 90% of the air mobility fleet lacks adequate secure beyond-line-of-sight communications. Commercial airliners often have better connectivity than military aircraft.
2. Next-Generation Systems: The Air Force needs to conceptualize air refueling and airlift as systems rather than individual platforms, potentially including stealth-like tankers for forward operations and diversified airlift capabilities.
3. Procurement Reform: The current acquisition system is fundamentally broken. "Our major producers of American capabilities can no longer deliver on time, at cost," Minihan asserts.

Minihan calls for "bold, unapologetic, urgent action" rather than more studies or reorganizations. He advocates for:

• Clear, precise language about deterring and defeating China, rather than vague terms like "great power competition"
• Robust planning focused on immediate readiness
• Streamlining the acquisition process to work with innovative companies beyond traditional prime contractors
• Ensuring the warfighter's voice is the "loudest in the room"

"We should never put the president in a position where they are constrained by not having a military that's ready to decisively defeat," Minihan emphasizes.

To allies in the Indo-Pacific, Minihan offers reassurance that military-to-military relationships remain strong and stable despite political fluctuations.

While acknowledging improvements in readiness, integration, and agility, Minihan stresses the need to "continue to expand the advantage" through rigorous exercises and close cooperation with partners and allies.

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