Last month, President Donald Trump’s massive tax bill passed the Republican-led House in a 215-214 vote. The White House has said the bill won’t add to the federal deficit, while the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projects that the bill would add to the debt by approximately $2.3 trillion from 2025 to 2034. Who’s right?

John Diamond reviews the numbers and explains why the tax bill, as written, can’t increase growth enough to offset its trillions in revenue declines, plus why ongoing uncertainty regarding Trump’s tariff policy will only further reduce economic growth.

Mentioned in this episode:

Congressional Budget Office, Estimated Budgetary Effects of H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61461

White House Council of Economic Advisers, Preserving and Expanding Low Tax Rates to Create American Economic Prosperity, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Preserving-and-Expanding-Low-Tax-Rates-to-Create-American-Economic-Prosperity.pdf

Tax Foundation, “Big Beautiful Bill” House GOP Tax Plan: Preliminary Details and Analysis, https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/big-beautiful-bill-house-gop-tax-plan/

This conversation was recorded on June 3, 2025.

A transcript is available here: https://bit.ly/4kq8QnD

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John Diamond explains why President Donald Trump’s recently announced trade deal with the United Kingdom is a net negative for the U.S. and why despite an additional trade deal with China, we’re still worse off than we were five months ago.

Then, he reviews the progress of Republicans’ “one big, beautiful” tax bill and explains what makes fiscal sense and what doesn’t.

Finally, he explores an executive order from Trump that aims to slash prescription drug prices and explores the potential trade-off between lower consumer costs and incentivizing pharmaceutical innovation.

This conversation was recorded on May 13, 2025.

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John Diamond outlines what Congress should consider as it prepares to extend key provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that expire at the end of 2025.

He covers: how tweaks to the tax system can encourage U.S. companies to return production from overseas; why it’s important to incentivize investment in research and development (R&D); and how policymakers can tackle the budget deficit by taxing economic rents.

This episode was recorded on April 22, 2025. You can follow @BakerInstitute on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.

The U.S. economy shrank by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, ending nearly three years of steady growth. John Diamond breaks down the latest GDP report and explains why the headline negative number isn’t the most important story — and what warning signals we should really be paying attention to.

This conversation was recorded on April 30, 2025.

You can follow @BakerInstitute on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube, and learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.

In the first episode of “The Two-Handed Economist,” John Diamond — director of the Center for Tax and Budget Policy at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy — dives into the economic fallout from the Trump administration’s sweeping new tariffs.

He unpacks the market turmoil, rising consumer costs, and global retaliation, arguing that these policies may do more harm than good. With a focus on historical lessons and practical alternatives, Diamond lays the foundation for this new podcast by bringing clarity to complex economic issues.

Mentioned:

“Innovation and Trade Policy in a Globalized World” by Ufuk Akcigit (University of Chicago, NBER, CEPR), Sina T. Ates (Federal Reserve Board), and Giammario Impullitti (University of Nottingham), 2021.

This episode was recorded on April 15, 2025 at 10:00 am CT. You can find the transcript here.

You can follow @BakerInstitute on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube, and learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.