Last month, President Donald Trump’s massive tax bill passed the Republican-led House in a 215-214 vote. The White House has said the bill won’t add to the federal deficit, while the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projects that the bill would add to the debt by approximately $2.3 trillion from 2025 to 2034. Who’s right?

John Diamond reviews the numbers and explains why the tax bill, as written, can’t increase growth enough to offset its trillions in revenue declines, plus why ongoing uncertainty regarding Trump’s tariff policy will only further reduce economic growth.

Mentioned in this episode:

Congressional Budget Office, Estimated Budgetary Effects of H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61461

White House Council of Economic Advisers, Preserving and Expanding Low Tax Rates to Create American Economic Prosperity, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Preserving-and-Expanding-Low-Tax-Rates-to-Create-American-Economic-Prosperity.pdf

Tax Foundation, “Big Beautiful Bill” House GOP Tax Plan: Preliminary Details and Analysis, https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/big-beautiful-bill-house-gop-tax-plan/

This conversation was recorded on June 3, 2025.

A transcript is available here: https://bit.ly/4kq8QnD

Follow John Diamond on X (@jw_diamond) and LinkedIn.

You can follow @BakerInstitute on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.

John Diamond explains why President Donald Trump’s recently announced trade deal with the United Kingdom is a net negative for the U.S. and why despite an additional trade deal with China, we’re still worse off than we were five months ago.

Then, he reviews the progress of Republicans’ “one big, beautiful” tax bill and explains what makes fiscal sense and what doesn’t.

Finally, he explores an executive order from Trump that aims to slash prescription drug prices and explores the potential trade-off between lower consumer costs and incentivizing pharmaceutical innovation.

This conversation was recorded on May 13, 2025.

Follow John Diamond on X (@jw_diamond) and LinkedIn.

You can follow @BakerInstitute on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.

John Diamond outlines what Congress should consider as it prepares to extend key provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that expire at the end of 2025.

He covers: how tweaks to the tax system can encourage U.S. companies to return production from overseas; why it’s important to incentivize investment in research and development (R&D); and how policymakers can tackle the budget deficit by taxing economic rents.

This episode was recorded on April 22, 2025. You can follow @BakerInstitute on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.