Episodios

  • What Matters More—Tariff Negotiations or Treasury Auctions?

    What Matters More—Tariff Negotiations or Treasury Auctions?
    Jul 8 2025
    In today's episode, Darius breaks down the market implications of President Trump’s sweeping tariff threats and the brewing pressure in global bond markets. With a delayed August 1st implementation window, trade negotiations are expected to resolve favorably, but rising Treasury supply and foreign buyer retreat signal deeper structural issues. Darius also answers a key client question about why the KISS portfolio excludes non-U.S. equities—and reminds investors how to customize exposures using 42 Macro’s institutional-grade tools.
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    8 m
  • Are investors too complacent about Wednesday's reciprocal tariff deadline?

    Are investors too complacent about Wednesday's reciprocal tariff deadline?
    Jul 7 2025
    Darius kicks off the week with a sharp take on why investors shouldn’t overreact to tariff headlines, political shakeups, or Tesla’s pullback. He unpacks how wealth concentration, structural inequality, and fiscal policy are reshaping the investment landscape—and why yield curve control may be inevitable. Plus, he tackles a timely client question on tax strategy within the KISS portfolio. A must-listen for navigating risk in today’s Fourth Turning macro regime.
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    12 m
  • Is the US labor market still resilient?

    Is the US labor market still resilient?
    Jul 3 2025
    In today's Macro Minute, Darius unpacks the July jobs report and shares 10 key takeaways affirming the resilience of the U.S. labor market and the durability of the U-shaped economy. He connects these insights to Paradigm C, explains why retail investors should keep it simple with KISS, and addresses client questions on small caps vs. large caps. The episode closes with a powerful reminder: while consensus obsesses over near-term risks, disciplined investors should stay focused on the forest—not the trees.
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    15 m
  • Will hardliners in the House tank the One Big [Ugly] Bill?

    Will hardliners in the House tank the One Big [Ugly] Bill?
    Jul 2 2025
    In today's video, Darius unpacks why investors should fade congressional noise and focus on structural drivers in Paradigm C. He also answers a key client question: Where are interest rates headed? From Fed independence to fiscal sustainability, this episode lays out the macro roadmap for what’s next in bonds, rates, and risk assets.
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    15 m
  • Should investors sell now and raise cash due to the US entering the Israel-Iran war?

    Should investors sell now and raise cash due to the US entering the Israel-Iran war?
    Jun 23 2025
    In today’s Macro Minute, Darius addresses whether investors should sell risk assets in response to escalating U.S.–Iran tensions. He explains why geopolitical shocks rarely warrant de-risking in isolation and reaffirms that KISS and Dr. Mo remain bullish. Plus, a fired-up response to a client question on adapting KISS in 401(k) plans — and why Wall Street’s limited menus shouldn’t limit your outcome.
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    13 m
  • How will markets respond to the stagflationary shocks of the US potentially joining the Israeli-Iran war and pending section 232 tariffs? Will the Fed kick start a chain reaction that accelerates de-dollarization today?

    How will markets respond to the stagflationary shocks of the US potentially joining the Israeli-Iran war and pending section 232 tariffs? Will the Fed kick start a chain reaction that accelerates de-dollarization today?
    Jun 18 2025
    Darius Dale breaks down the market implications of rising stagflationary risks—including U.S. military posturing in the Middle East and the Trump administration’s pending Section 232 tariffs. He also explores the potential for accelerated de-dollarization following today’s FOMC meeting and the looming question of who might replace Jay Powell as Fed Chair. Plus, a heartfelt message from a longtime listener sparks a candid reflection on authenticity, identity, and walking the fine line between rigor and relatability in macro strategy.
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    8 m
  • Is it time to buy protection? Did the BOJ cave to Japanese government bond vigilantes?

    Is it time to buy protection? Did the BOJ cave to Japanese government bond vigilantes?
    Jun 17 2025
    In today’s Macro Minute, Darius Dale tackles two key questions: Is it time to buy protection, and did the BOJ just cave to bond market pressure? He breaks down market reaction to Trump’s early G7 departure, a potential dovish pivot from the BOJ, and the growing role of KISS as the optimal defense in a deepening Fourth Turning polycrisis. Plus, a client asks whether KISS is appropriate for investors in their 40s, 50s, or 60s—Darius shares a powerful, personal answer.
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    12 m