Simon’s on holiday in sunny Durban 🌞 but couldn’t resist diving into what might be Trump’s grand economic plan. On the surface, it’s tariffs, spending cuts and tax breaks—but is there real strategy underneath the chaos?

🔹 Trump’s Big Idea: Use tariffs to raise revenue and onshore manufacturing 🏭
🔹 Debt Drama: US debt now > $30 trillion 😬
🔹 Tariffs Everywhere: South Africa slapped with 30%—and so is everyone else 🌍
🔹 Reshoring & Inflation: Could higher costs push inflation up again? 💸🔥
🔹 No Deals Signed: 90 deals in 90 days? 0 delivered 🤷‍♂️
🔹 Foreign Policy Fallout: NATO, Mexico, Canada—strained relationships 🌐💥
🔹 Cut Spending: USAID, EV subsidies, and soft power eroded 🚫🌱
🔹 Regulation Rollback: Less red tape, but also less consumer/environmental protection 🧾♻️
🔹 Crypto & Energy: Deregulate crypto, cozy up to OPEC for cheap oil ⛽🪙
🔹 Mar-a-Lago Accord?: A currency + Treasury buying pact that needs allies—who aren't coming 🤝❌
🔹 Immigration & Performance Politics: Headlines vs. actual impact 🛂📺

💬 There’s a thread of logic, but execution has been clumsy at best. Allies alienated, deals undelivered. The endgame? Likely messy and inflationary.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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💸 Know Your Fees: Effective Annual Cost (EAC)

• Not all fees are created equal — EAC is the real number to watch.

• Applies to retirement products, LISPs, and unit trusts — not to stockbrokers.

• 📊 Understand the difference:

  • TER (Total Expense Ratio)

  • TIC (Total Investment Cost)

  • EAC (includes platform + advisor + product fees)

• 🍏🍏 Apples-to-apples: Compare funds using EAC.

• 🎯 Target an EAC between 1.1%–1.5%.

• 💬 Negotiate! Advisor and platform fees are often flexible.

• 🔍 Beware: Some brokers refuse to give the number — that’s a red flag.

• ❗ Platform fees: Flat > Percentage. Otherwise, your 1% could become R100,000 in fees!

• Weekend U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear sites 🔥 led to… a shrug from the oil market.

• 📈 Oil hit $81.40 early Monday, then crashed to $67.70 by Wednesday.

• That’s a $14 drop, nearly 20% down — massive.

• 🌍 Global market awash with oil:

  • 🇻🇪 Venezuela, 🇮🇷 Iran, 🇷🇺 Russia all pumping through sanctions

  • ⛽ OPEC+ supply increases kicking in soon

• ⛴️ Straits of Hormuz risk overstated — markets unconvinced

• 📉 Oil heading to $60? Possibly.

• ❌ Not a fan of Sasol — never been on that bus

• 📉 Sasol collapsed this week: down 14–15% Tuesday

• Currently hovering at R96, with support around R77

• 🧪 Chemicals weak, oil down, Rand strong = triple whammy

• ⚠️ Not going bust, but it’s in real pain

• 💵 USD/ZAR down from 18.15 to 17.76

• 🔻 Dollar weakness a key driver

• 🎯 R17 still very much in play

• 😬 Strong Rand not helping exporters like Sassol

• 🕊️ No rate change last week, as expected

• 📣 Powell grilled by Congress — MAGA heat incoming

• 📉 Fed still guiding for two cuts in 2025

• Data outlook softening:

  • 🏭 GDP ↓

  • 📈 Inflation ↑

  • 👷 Unemployment ↑

• 🧠 Powell's just doing his job — not playing politics

• SA’s MPC, on the other hand… maybe a bit behind the curve

• 💬 Chat with Old Mutual: rotating out of gold, into PGMs

• 🔼 Platinum at 10-year highs, last seen in Oct 2014

• 🇿🇼 🇿🇦 Platinum from Southern Africa; 🇨🇦 🇷🇺 Palladium elsewhere

• 📦 Stockpiles, especially palladium, still working through

• 🚗 EVs: Now only expected to be 40% of sales by 2035

  • Existential crisis for PGMs? Delayed… for now

• 🧊 Recycling paused — not worth it at these prices

• 🥇 Pick your poison: Impala, Northam, Sibanye Stillwater*…

  • 📦 Sibanye with PGMs, palladium & gold exposure

• 🧲 Pullback to support around R3,330/g

• Could go as low as R3,200 — but not rolling over

• 💡 Structural shift in how investors (especially in developed markets) view gold

• 🛡️ Post-2022 shift: Central banks hedging against future sanctions with more gold

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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This week, Simon Brown unpacks the numbers behind a recovering South African consumer, an attractive new renewable energy listing, and the latest moves in platinum group metals (PGMs). Plus, CrowdStrike’s results, Omnia’s cash pile (and SARS headache), and what falling bond yields mean for SA.

In this episode:

• 📈 Retail recovery? Results from Mr Price* and TFG* show H2 improvement — are SA consumers finally catching a break?

• 🌱 Greencoat Renewables (JSE: GRP) lands on the JSE with a juicy ±9% dividend yield. Should you be bidding?

• 💰 Omnia shines with strong mining & agri numbers, plus another special dividend — but SARS looms.

• 🪙 PGMs on the move: Platinum breaks out, rhodium recovers — which miner is best placed to benefit?

• 🔐 CrowdStrike* delivers solid results, but share dilution raises eyebrows. Is it still a long-term cybersecurity winner?

• 💸 Currency & bonds: Rand firms as US dollar weakens and SA bond yields drop. What does it mean for investors?

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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Simon has been doing a key note address over the last week and in this weeks podcast he takes a slightly different tack to what he usually presents. This time he is delivery his key note.

He looks back over almost forty years of market crises that he's invested through.

He shares the lessons he learnt, what caused the crisis and what the response was.

This includes; 1987, EM Tigers of 1998, the DotCom bust in 2000, Global Financial Crisis of 2008/9, the 2020 pandemic and finally the 2025 Trump tariff crisis.

• SARB inflation target 🎯
  Inflation remains well below target at 2.8%, raising expectations of a rate cut at Thursday’s MPC meeting. New long-term target could shift to 3%.
  ⏳ Rate cut coming? Market’s betting on 25bps; Simon wants 50bps.
  💡 Lower target = anchored expectations = tamer wage negotiations.

• Peloton (PTON) 🚴‍♂️
  The pandemic darling may be turning a corner with solid free cash flow returning.
  💵 Q3 FY25: $94.6m FCF (vs $10.7m in Q1)
  📉 Stock at $7.50 (down from $170). Risky turnaround, but improving numbers.
  📊 Subscriptions reviving; de-risked but needs deeper digging.

• Gold Power Hour coming 19 June 🪙
  Event: “Know when to hold it, know when to fold it.”
  📆 19 June with Standard Bank
  📈 Gold had its highest ever weekly close – bullish candles and all.

• Rand strength 💪🇿🇦
  ZAR gaining momentum: from 19.90 to 17.88.
  🌍 Dollar index weakening, Trump tariff noise not shaking markets – yet.
  🔮 Simon sees 16.80 as possible ahead.

• USDZAR 27 May 2025 | weekly chart

  Trump tariffs whiplash 🇺🇸🌀
  🗓 Flip-flops on 50% EU tariffs: delay to June? Or back to July 9?
  🎭 Oval Office ambush with Ramaphosa. No real surprises.
  📉 Market's still waiting for an actual deal – not just handshakes.

• Renegen* (REN) & ASP Isotopes (ASPI) 🧪
  🚨 Renegen deal: 1 share of ASP gets ~0.09 of REN.
  🛑 Simon holding Renegen for Phase 2 helium – not keen on ASP.
  💰 Nasdaq listing delays = funding delays.

• Sasol (SOL) ⚖️
  💸 Transnet drops appeal, SOL gets R4bn court award.
  📈 Stock rally confirmed – chart looking better, Brent still a drag.
  🛢 Oil remains the key driver.

• Pick n Pay (PIK) 🛒
  📉 Still losing money, but less than before.
  👷 Sean Summers’ contract extended to 2028. Break-even delayed.
  💰 Boxer + R4bn cash > market cap = value if turnaround succeeds.
  🚧 Market says: “We don't believe it. Yet.”

• Nampak (NPK) 📦
  ✅ Another slow but steady turnaround.
  📊 Results not amazing but consumer headwinds easing.

• Altron (AEL) 🚗📡
  📈 Strong Netstar performance. Solid accounting tailwinds coming.
  💬 Simon: “One of the few real turnaround wins.”
  🧠 Potential still there – analyst upbeat.

• Harmony (HAR) + Copper 🇦🇺🔧
  💰 Buying Aussie copper mine for $1bn – diversifying away from gold.
  ⚖️ Adds immediate copper cash flow = de-risked future.
  🔌 Copper demand = chips, EVs, energy. Chart still flat for now.

• PGMs: Platinum & Palladium 💿
  🔁 Trading in long-term ranges (R830–R1100).
  📉 Not breaking out yet; charts uninspiring.
  📦 Stockpiles still working through post-Russia invasion.
  📉 EV transition and reduced supply in focus.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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