Simon’s on holiday in sunny Durban 🌞 but couldn’t resist diving into what might be Trump’s grand economic plan. On the surface, it’s tariffs, spending cuts and tax breaks—but is there real strategy underneath the chaos?

🔹 Trump’s Big Idea: Use tariffs to raise revenue and onshore manufacturing 🏭
🔹 Debt Drama: US debt now > $30 trillion 😬
🔹 Tariffs Everywhere: South Africa slapped with 30%—and so is everyone else 🌍
🔹 Reshoring & Inflation: Could higher costs push inflation up again? 💸🔥
🔹 No Deals Signed: 90 deals in 90 days? 0 delivered 🤷‍♂️
🔹 Foreign Policy Fallout: NATO, Mexico, Canada—strained relationships 🌐💥
🔹 Cut Spending: USAID, EV subsidies, and soft power eroded 🚫🌱
🔹 Regulation Rollback: Less red tape, but also less consumer/environmental protection 🧾♻️
🔹 Crypto & Energy: Deregulate crypto, cozy up to OPEC for cheap oil ⛽🪙
🔹 Mar-a-Lago Accord?: A currency + Treasury buying pact that needs allies—who aren't coming 🤝❌
🔹 Immigration & Performance Politics: Headlines vs. actual impact 🛂📺

💬 There’s a thread of logic, but execution has been clumsy at best. Allies alienated, deals undelivered. The endgame? Likely messy and inflationary.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

💸 Know Your Fees: Effective Annual Cost (EAC)

• Not all fees are created equal — EAC is the real number to watch.

• Applies to retirement products, LISPs, and unit trusts — not to stockbrokers.

• 📊 Understand the difference:

  • TER (Total Expense Ratio)

  • TIC (Total Investment Cost)

  • EAC (includes platform + advisor + product fees)

• 🍏🍏 Apples-to-apples: Compare funds using EAC.

• 🎯 Target an EAC between 1.1%–1.5%.

• 💬 Negotiate! Advisor and platform fees are often flexible.

• 🔍 Beware: Some brokers refuse to give the number — that’s a red flag.

• ❗ Platform fees: Flat > Percentage. Otherwise, your 1% could become R100,000 in fees!

• Weekend U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear sites 🔥 led to… a shrug from the oil market.

• 📈 Oil hit $81.40 early Monday, then crashed to $67.70 by Wednesday.

• That’s a $14 drop, nearly 20% down — massive.

• 🌍 Global market awash with oil:

  • 🇻🇪 Venezuela, 🇮🇷 Iran, 🇷🇺 Russia all pumping through sanctions

  • ⛽ OPEC+ supply increases kicking in soon

• ⛴️ Straits of Hormuz risk overstated — markets unconvinced

• 📉 Oil heading to $60? Possibly.

• ❌ Not a fan of Sasol — never been on that bus

• 📉 Sasol collapsed this week: down 14–15% Tuesday

• Currently hovering at R96, with support around R77

• 🧪 Chemicals weak, oil down, Rand strong = triple whammy

• ⚠️ Not going bust, but it’s in real pain

• 💵 USD/ZAR down from 18.15 to 17.76

• 🔻 Dollar weakness a key driver

• 🎯 R17 still very much in play

• 😬 Strong Rand not helping exporters like Sassol

• 🕊️ No rate change last week, as expected

• 📣 Powell grilled by Congress — MAGA heat incoming

• 📉 Fed still guiding for two cuts in 2025

• Data outlook softening:

  • 🏭 GDP ↓

  • 📈 Inflation ↑

  • 👷 Unemployment ↑

• 🧠 Powell's just doing his job — not playing politics

• SA’s MPC, on the other hand… maybe a bit behind the curve

• 💬 Chat with Old Mutual: rotating out of gold, into PGMs

• 🔼 Platinum at 10-year highs, last seen in Oct 2014

• 🇿🇼 🇿🇦 Platinum from Southern Africa; 🇨🇦 🇷🇺 Palladium elsewhere

• 📦 Stockpiles, especially palladium, still working through

• 🚗 EVs: Now only expected to be 40% of sales by 2035

  • Existential crisis for PGMs? Delayed… for now

• 🧊 Recycling paused — not worth it at these prices

• 🥇 Pick your poison: Impala, Northam, Sibanye Stillwater*…

  • 📦 Sibanye with PGMs, palladium & gold exposure

• 🧲 Pullback to support around R3,330/g

• Could go as low as R3,200 — but not rolling over

• 💡 Structural shift in how investors (especially in developed markets) view gold

• 🛡️ Post-2022 shift: Central banks hedging against future sanctions with more gold

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order