This episode presents a detailed overview of the global sugar market as of July 6, 2025, with updates from key producing countries and emerging policy shifts shaping the sector.

• In Pakistan, the government has approved the private-sector importation of 500,000 metric tons of sugar to counter market shortages and stabilize prices. The move follows warnings about black marketing and price manipulation, with enforcement measures prepared to address violations. Despite these efforts, no subsidies or tax exemptions will be provided for imports, due to ongoing financial constraints and IMF-related commitments. The decision reflects the complex policy and market interplay influencing Pakistan's sugar sector.
• In India, Bihar has launched a sugarcane mechanization scheme aimed at reducing cultivation costs and increasing productivity. Backed by INR10 crore, the initiative has already attracted over 900 applications on its first day. The program offers subsidies for up to three machines per farmer, selected through an online lottery. Regional participation rates vary, highlighting differences in adoption across the state. This program, along with a R49 crore investment in sugarcane development, underlines Bihar’s push for agricultural modernization.
• In Brazil, frost risks have driven up sugar prices and spurred a rapid rebound in futures markets. While production forecasts indicate a slight rise, adverse weather and a policy-driven shift toward ethanol production have complicated output projections. These developments highlight Brazil’s strategic balancing of climate impacts with long-term bioenergy goals, reinforcing its influential role in global sugar supply dynamics.
• On the global stage, sugar production is on the rise, with countries like India and Thailand reporting higher output projections. Despite a recent decline in global sugar prices due to expected surpluses, nations are deploying technological innovations and export policy reforms to improve efficiency and align with sustainability objectives.

This episode presents a global overview of the sugar market for the week of June 29, 2025, focusing on climate disruptions, production shifts, and trade developments across major producing regions.

• Brazil, the world’s leading sugar producer, is encountering severe production challenges due to persistent drought and high temperatures in key states such as Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo, and Alagoas. Forecasts from Unica and Kanab project year-on-year declines of 11 percent and 6.4 percent, respectively. A stronger Brazilian real is also dampening export competitiveness, raising concerns over the country’s future contribution to global supply.
• In contrast, India is poised for a significant increase in sugar output, projected at 35.3 million metric tons—a 25 percent rise from the previous year. This growth is attributed to favorable monsoon conditions and expanded cultivation. However, policy mismanagement and delayed payments to farmers in Punjab threaten sector liquidity and long-term stability. Weather variability continues to pose risks, particularly with excessive rainfall and cool temperatures in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Gujarat.
• Thailand reports a moderate production increase of 2 percent, supported by favorable conditions in regions like Kam Phe Ng Phet and Udan Thani, though these also raise crop risk. The United States sees a decline in sugar supply, driven by reduced beet yields and lower output in Florida. Mexico maintains stable production at just over 5 million metric tons, with steady trade relations with the US, despite a slight dip in export volumes.
• Mozambique’s sugar exports have surged by 50 percent year on year, bolstered by infrastructure investments and recovery initiatives following recent cyclones. Meanwhile, Malaysia’s imposition of tariffs on Thai sugar imports could shift regional trade dynamics.
• In Europe, Ukraine benefits from an expanded EU quota through August 2025, enabling enhanced market access for 15 firms. Weather patterns in Karnataka, Bihar, Parana, and Goias remain mixed and require close observation for their potential impact on crop development.
• Overall, the global sugar market is under pressure from climatic extremes, economic policy shifts, and evolving trade landscapes. Developments in countries like Brazil, India, and the United States are critical to the outlook for pricing and supply trends in the months ahead.

Episode Summary: Global Sugar Market Weekly – June 22, 2025

• This episode offers a concise overview of key developments in the global sugar market as of June 22, 2025, highlighting production trends, policy interventions, and trade dynamics across major producing regions.
• Mozambique recorded a substantial 50 percent increase in sugar exports in 2024, rising to 36 million dollars from 24 million the previous year. This recovery follows the rebound in sugar production after severe cyclone-related disruptions. Despite ongoing climate risks such as frequent flooding and storm events, particularly in Sofala Province, investments are strengthening the sector. Notably, a 500 million rand infusion by Tongaat Hulett into the Mafambisse and Xinavane mills is expected to boost capacity and resilience.
• In Punjab, India, a sugarcane payment crisis is unfolding. Farmers are owed approximately INR 200 crore for cane supplied in early 2025. Critics, including opposition leader Partap Singh Bajwa, accuse the government of prioritizing financial assistance to private mill owners over cooperative sectors and smallholder payments, exacerbating the financial strain on producers.
• In the United States, overall sugar supply is projected to decline to 13.77 million short tons raw value, driven by reduced beet sugar output. While beginning stocks have risen, weather-related fluctuations and yield variability, especially in Florida, are putting downward pressure on production. Louisiana remains stable.
• Mexico anticipates steady sugar production for the 2025–2026 cycle at approximately 5.1 million metric tons, with a slight dip in exports. However, shipments to the United States are expected to remain stable, sustaining a delicate trade balance in North America.
• Malaysia is considering protective tariffs on Thai sugar imports. Industry leaders from MSM Malaysia Holdings and CSR argue that current import levels represent unfair competition and threaten domestic producers, despite sufficient local production to meet demand.
• Finally, Ukraine is increasing its sugar export quota to the European Union, granting 15 domestic companies access to expanded export volumes through early August 2025. This move aims to strengthen Ukraine’s position in the European market and capitalize on favorable trade conditions.

Episode Summary: Global Sugar Market Weekly – June 15, 2025

• This week’s episode offers a comprehensive overview of key policy and production developments shaping the global sugar market, with a focus on India, Indonesia, Ukraine, and Russia.
• In India, the government and industry leaders are taking coordinated action to enhance the long-term sustainability of the sugarcane sector, which supports over 55 million people. A six-point plan introduced by the Indian Sugar Mills Association includes varietal diversification and climate-smart farming to improve yields and farmer incomes. Uttar Pradesh has ramped up support by expanding seed nurseries and distributing high-quality seeds to improve regional productivity.
• Indonesia is targeting sugar self-sufficiency within three years. Agriculture Minister Andy Amran Sulaiman outlined a plan to simplify regulations and expand sugarcane cultivation by 200,000 hectares while improving yields. This is backed by $2.45 billion in government investment toward infrastructure and subsidies aimed at reducing dependence on imports.
• Ukraine is implementing export quotas for sugar and poultry to the European Union in 2025. Sugar exports will be limited to 11,007.5 tons, managed through a licensing system that reflects historical volumes. These measures are part of a broader strategy to stabilize domestic markets and align with national economic goals.
• In Russia, the Stavropol region is boosting domestic sugar beet seed production. Starting July 2025, farmers will receive subsidies covering 70 percent of seed costs. This policy is part of a broader initiative to increase local seed use and enhance agricultural resilience through improved crop rotation.
• Together, these efforts highlight how various countries are responding to domestic needs and global pressures with tailored strategies to strengthen their sugar industries.

Podcast Episode Summary: Global Sugar Market Weekly Update — June 8, 2025

• This week’s podcast provides a structured analysis of developments across major sugar-producing nations and the broader global market dynamics as of early June 2025.
• Brazil is facing a sharp production decline in its 2025/26 harvest, particularly in the Center-South region, which has reported a 22.7% year-on-year drop in output by mid-May. This contraction, largely driven by unseasonal rainfall, has impacted both sugar and ethanol production. However, national output is still projected to reach between 44.1 and 45.9 million tons, with the state of Goiás showing positive growth due to improved land management and favorable weather. Ethanol production, in contrast, has plunged 35%, despite a brief spike in interest from rising oil prices, as adverse weather continues to disrupt operations.
• Thailand is on a recovery path, with 2024/25 sugar output rising 14% to 10 million metric tons, and further growth expected next season. This is attributed to better farming techniques and conditions. India is also seeing a 25% surge in production, forecasted to hit 35.3 million tons in 2025/26. However, a strict export cap of 800,000 metric tons remains in place to stabilize domestic prices, alongside new regulatory reforms aimed at enhancing transparency and integrating digital monitoring across sugar mills.
• Pakistan continues to grapple with operational inefficiencies and rising retail prices, up 21.6% year-on-year. The government has responded with temporary price controls and a third-party production audit to create a transparent pricing structure.
• In the Philippines, new regulations now require importers of sugar and substitutes to register and pay clearance fees, designed to protect domestic producers and stabilize the local market.
• At a global level, the sugar market is transitioning from deficit to surplus, propelled by rising output from key producers such as Brazil and India. This shift is influencing pricing, export strategies, and market confidence, while broader factors such as currency volatility continue to play a key role.

This week’s CropGPT episode outlines major developments impacting the global sugar market, focusing on farmer pricing demands, production trends, regulatory enforcement, and supply chain disruptions across key producing nations.

• India: In Tamil Nadu, sugarcane farmers are pressing for a price hike to ₹5,500 per tonne, in line with recommendations from the Swaminathan Commission. Historical payment delays by mills have strained farmer finances, leading to renewed calls for reintroducing the State Advised Price and revamping cooperative mill operations. In Uttar Pradesh, improved yields and operational efficiency across 121 sugar mills—including 10 newly revived facilities—have significantly contributed to the state’s economic output.
• Philippines: Authorities are intensifying efforts against sugar smuggling following seizures worth PHP 90 million. The government is exploring blacklisting measures and tightening import regulations to protect domestic producers, with another recent PHP 5 million smuggling case underscoring persistent enforcement challenges.
• Pakistan: The government has launched a third-party audit of sugar production costs to ensure pricing transparency. Interim ex-mill price reductions aim to curb consumer burden, while new pricing frameworks are expected after audit completion.
• Brazil: Early May production data for the 2025/26 season shows a 6.8% year-on-year drop, with total annual output down 22.7%. Despite forecasts of a global surplus, regional setbacks—including drought and fire-related equipment losses—pose threats to output and may offset surplus expectations.
• Australia: Queensland's wet season has caused infrastructure damage and cane losses, particularly affecting cane rail operations. Industry groups are seeking policy improvements for disaster response and recovery, citing insufficient government relief.

This week’s episode offers a detailed snapshot of key developments in the global sugar sector, focusing on pricing pressures, policy responses, and production forecasts across major producing and consuming regions.

• India: The State Sugarcane Cultivators Association has proposed increasing the fair and remunerative price (FRP) for sugarcane to ₹4,500 per ton, citing misalignment with production costs. Farmers are also requesting a share of byproduct revenues and urging transparency in weighing procedures at mills. Pest outbreaks in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar’s plan to establish an international research center signal both ongoing challenges and proactive steps to modernize the industry.
• Brazil: USDA-FAS projects a 2.3% year-on-year increase in sugar output for 2025/26, reaching 44.7 million metric tons, while Brazil’s Conab forecasts an even higher figure of 45.875 million tons. However, April data revealed a 38.6% monthly drop in production due to unfavorable weather, tempering short-term optimism.
• Thailand: Sugar output rose 14% year-over-year to 10 million metric tons for the 2024/25 season, contributing to global supply pressure and a potentially bearish outlook for prices.
• Pakistan: Domestic sugar prices have surged, with mills selling above government-set rates. Retailers are pushing back, threatening to suspend sugar sales unless wholesale prices are regulated.
• South Africa: Regulatory reforms may soon allow direct contracts between sugar retailers and growers/millers, aimed at strengthening local industry resilience and safeguarding over one million jobs.
• The Philippines: Production is projected to increase nearly 5% in 2024/25, supported by expanded harvest areas and government-led stabilization efforts, despite ongoing drought conditions.

This week’s CropGPT podcast provides a structured overview of key developments shaping the global sugar market, with a focus on production trends, policy impacts, and trade shifts.

• India: In Visakhapatnam District, sugarcane cultivation has declined significantly—from 4,500 to under 3,000 hectares—following the closure of the Pemasengi Cooperative Sugar Mill and the NCS Sugar Factory due to outdated equipment and financial constraints. Local leaders are calling for government intervention to modernize the facilities and restore rural employment. Nationally, efforts to raise ethanol blending in petrol to 30% face obstacles from declining sugarcane yields caused by disease and erratic weather. While the fair remunerative price for sugarcane has been increased, balancing sugar and ethanol production remains a challenge.
• Brazil: The Center-South region reported a steep 49.35% year-on-year drop in sugarcane milling due to adverse weather, leading to a 53.79% fall in sugar output and a 35.37% drop in ethanol production. These declines have contributed to a 3% rise in global sugar prices on exchanges in New York and London. Additional market pressures stem from rising crude oil prices and a stronger Brazilian real, which may incentivize mills to shift production toward ethanol over exports.
• Ukraine: Ukrainian sugar producers are targeting growth in the MENA region, which already accounts for 90% of the country’s exports, to offset EU quota restrictions. Government support is viewed as vital to help Ukraine develop structured trade channels and establish itself as a more consistent global supplier, despite currently holding only a 0.2% share in the global sugar trade.
• Global Outlook: Market conditions vary widely, with production forecasts influenced by weather variability, policy changes, and energy-linked demand shifts. Brazil’s output drop and India’s evolving ethanol strategy are particularly impactful in shaping international supply and pricing dynamics.