This episode presents a detailed overview of the global sugar market as of July 6, 2025, with updates from key producing countries and emerging policy shifts shaping the sector.

• In Pakistan, the government has approved the private-sector importation of 500,000 metric tons of sugar to counter market shortages and stabilize prices. The move follows warnings about black marketing and price manipulation, with enforcement measures prepared to address violations. Despite these efforts, no subsidies or tax exemptions will be provided for imports, due to ongoing financial constraints and IMF-related commitments. The decision reflects the complex policy and market interplay influencing Pakistan's sugar sector.
• In India, Bihar has launched a sugarcane mechanization scheme aimed at reducing cultivation costs and increasing productivity. Backed by INR10 crore, the initiative has already attracted over 900 applications on its first day. The program offers subsidies for up to three machines per farmer, selected through an online lottery. Regional participation rates vary, highlighting differences in adoption across the state. This program, along with a R49 crore investment in sugarcane development, underlines Bihar’s push for agricultural modernization.
• In Brazil, frost risks have driven up sugar prices and spurred a rapid rebound in futures markets. While production forecasts indicate a slight rise, adverse weather and a policy-driven shift toward ethanol production have complicated output projections. These developments highlight Brazil’s strategic balancing of climate impacts with long-term bioenergy goals, reinforcing its influential role in global sugar supply dynamics.
• On the global stage, sugar production is on the rise, with countries like India and Thailand reporting higher output projections. Despite a recent decline in global sugar prices due to expected surpluses, nations are deploying technological innovations and export policy reforms to improve efficiency and align with sustainability objectives.

This episode presents a global overview of the sugar market for the week of June 29, 2025, focusing on climate disruptions, production shifts, and trade developments across major producing regions.

• Brazil, the world’s leading sugar producer, is encountering severe production challenges due to persistent drought and high temperatures in key states such as Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo, and Alagoas. Forecasts from Unica and Kanab project year-on-year declines of 11 percent and 6.4 percent, respectively. A stronger Brazilian real is also dampening export competitiveness, raising concerns over the country’s future contribution to global supply.
• In contrast, India is poised for a significant increase in sugar output, projected at 35.3 million metric tons—a 25 percent rise from the previous year. This growth is attributed to favorable monsoon conditions and expanded cultivation. However, policy mismanagement and delayed payments to farmers in Punjab threaten sector liquidity and long-term stability. Weather variability continues to pose risks, particularly with excessive rainfall and cool temperatures in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Gujarat.
• Thailand reports a moderate production increase of 2 percent, supported by favorable conditions in regions like Kam Phe Ng Phet and Udan Thani, though these also raise crop risk. The United States sees a decline in sugar supply, driven by reduced beet yields and lower output in Florida. Mexico maintains stable production at just over 5 million metric tons, with steady trade relations with the US, despite a slight dip in export volumes.
• Mozambique’s sugar exports have surged by 50 percent year on year, bolstered by infrastructure investments and recovery initiatives following recent cyclones. Meanwhile, Malaysia’s imposition of tariffs on Thai sugar imports could shift regional trade dynamics.
• In Europe, Ukraine benefits from an expanded EU quota through August 2025, enabling enhanced market access for 15 firms. Weather patterns in Karnataka, Bihar, Parana, and Goias remain mixed and require close observation for their potential impact on crop development.
• Overall, the global sugar market is under pressure from climatic extremes, economic policy shifts, and evolving trade landscapes. Developments in countries like Brazil, India, and the United States are critical to the outlook for pricing and supply trends in the months ahead.

Episode Summary: Global Sugar Market Weekly – June 22, 2025

• This episode offers a concise overview of key developments in the global sugar market as of June 22, 2025, highlighting production trends, policy interventions, and trade dynamics across major producing regions.
• Mozambique recorded a substantial 50 percent increase in sugar exports in 2024, rising to 36 million dollars from 24 million the previous year. This recovery follows the rebound in sugar production after severe cyclone-related disruptions. Despite ongoing climate risks such as frequent flooding and storm events, particularly in Sofala Province, investments are strengthening the sector. Notably, a 500 million rand infusion by Tongaat Hulett into the Mafambisse and Xinavane mills is expected to boost capacity and resilience.
• In Punjab, India, a sugarcane payment crisis is unfolding. Farmers are owed approximately INR 200 crore for cane supplied in early 2025. Critics, including opposition leader Partap Singh Bajwa, accuse the government of prioritizing financial assistance to private mill owners over cooperative sectors and smallholder payments, exacerbating the financial strain on producers.
• In the United States, overall sugar supply is projected to decline to 13.77 million short tons raw value, driven by reduced beet sugar output. While beginning stocks have risen, weather-related fluctuations and yield variability, especially in Florida, are putting downward pressure on production. Louisiana remains stable.
• Mexico anticipates steady sugar production for the 2025–2026 cycle at approximately 5.1 million metric tons, with a slight dip in exports. However, shipments to the United States are expected to remain stable, sustaining a delicate trade balance in North America.
• Malaysia is considering protective tariffs on Thai sugar imports. Industry leaders from MSM Malaysia Holdings and CSR argue that current import levels represent unfair competition and threaten domestic producers, despite sufficient local production to meet demand.
• Finally, Ukraine is increasing its sugar export quota to the European Union, granting 15 domestic companies access to expanded export volumes through early August 2025. This move aims to strengthen Ukraine’s position in the European market and capitalize on favorable trade conditions.