This episode presents a detailed overview of the global palm oil market as of July 6, 2025.

• In Malaysia, palm oil futures faced a downturn, pressured by weaker global edible oil prices and profit-taking activities. However, the benchmark September contract still registered a 1.67% weekly gain. Declining production and strong export demand are expected to reduce inventories for the first time in four months. Despite short-term price pressures, a 25% export surge in May, supported by a weakened ringgit, boosted competitiveness in foreign markets.
• Indonesia recorded a 53% increase in palm oil exports in May, reaching 1.88 million tons, driven by significant price discounts compared to alternative oils. This rise is expected to reduce inventories and potentially lift prices. Strong demand, particularly from India, contributed to higher export volumes and values between January and May. Indonesia is currently in its peak production season and aims to reach an annual export target of 25 million tons. To stabilize trade, the government has revised its crude palm oil benchmark price, which is intended to support consistent export duty structures.
• India continues to favor palm oil for its affordability, importing over 800,000 tons in June. The cost advantage over soya oil has reinforced palm oil’s role in India’s edible oil sector. Government efforts to enhance domestic commodity exchanges aim to align with global standards, although concerns about overregulation and its impact on market liquidity persist.
• Globally, the palm oil market remains highly sensitive to the prices of alternative oils like soybean and sunflower oil, as well as crude oil prices which affect palm oil’s competitiveness as a biodiesel feedstock. Geopolitical developments, trade policies, and environmental regulations further shape global trade flows and pricing strategies, introducing both volatility and opportunity for key stakeholders.

This episode provides a comprehensive update on the global canola market as of July 6, 2025.

• In Canada, canola exports have surpassed 8.68 million tons, with full-year projections raised to 9 million tons. However, production is expected to decline slightly to 18.8 million tons due to persistent drought in Western Canada and reduced carryover stocks. Futures prices on the Intercontinental Exchange are trending upward, supported by tight old crop supplies and dry conditions. Cash prices remain strong, but crop quality is a concern, with only 7% rated excellent. The USDA has downgraded export forecasts for 2025–26 to 7.3 million tons amid trade uncertainties, particularly China's imposition of 100% tariffs on Canadian canola.
• Domestic crushing in Canada is projected to hold steady at 11.1 million tons, though the global availability of soybean meal limits growth. In Australia, production is forecasted to fall to 5.7 million tons, down from previous seasons, due to prolonged drought and reduced planting areas. Export potential is also expected to drop, with forecasts down to 4.6 million tons.
• Ukraine anticipates a weaker harvest of 3.73 million tons, primarily due to spring frosts and soil moisture deficits. Consideration of importing genetically modified seeds to support crushing capacity poses a risk to Ukraine’s non-GMO trade status with the EU. The European Union itself is seeing reduced rapeseed cultivation and processing, driven by lower biodiesel demand and higher purchase costs. This has led to a shift toward soybeans, which are more economically viable due to lower-cost imports from South America.
• Moldova is expanding its rapeseed area to 120,000 hectares to compensate for regional supply gaps, boosting exports to Romania and Bulgaria. Globally, rapeseed production is expected to decline from 80.3 million to 75.5 million tons, with notable reductions in the EU, Ukraine, and India. Ongoing trade shifts, including China's tariffs on Canadian canola, are redirecting trade toward markets like India and Russia, underscoring the volatility of the global canola sector amid geopolitical and environmental changes.

This episode offers an in-depth overview of the global sunflower market as of July 6, 2025.

• In Ukraine, subdued domestic processing demand and weak international oil markets are impacting sunflower activity. Despite reaching sowing levels comparable to the previous year (5,017,000 hectares), many farmers are shifting to soybeans. Sunflower prices remain relatively stable, but are being pressured by processor expectations of a larger upcoming harvest. Export revenues from sunflower oil have dipped slightly to USD 4.65 billion, and sunflower meal exports have dropped 30% due to reduced demand from the EU and China and growing competition from Argentina, Russia, and Kazakhstan. Some processors are pivoting to sunflower kernel production to meet European demand, targeting 30,000 tons by 2026.
• Russia anticipates a record-high sunflower crop of 17.5 million tons in 2025. While oil and meal exports are down due to poor margins, the sowing area has expanded to 11.4 million hectares. The Russian government plans to cut sunflower oil export duties by nearly 50% through August 2026 to stimulate the sector. Meanwhile, Argentina has seen strong processing growth and increased sunflower oil exports, driven by favorable harvest conditions and a yield forecast of 4.7 million tons, with India emerging as a key buyer.
• Romania expects a 50% increase in sunflower output year-over-year. However, local refiners are struggling with high raw material costs and low profitability, leading them to import crude sunflower oil from Ukraine to sustain processing activities.
• Kazakhstan has reinstated its record sowing area of 3.4 million hectares. Sunflowers, praised for their drought resistance and revenue potential, have become the country's most profitable crop. Kazakhstan is now a key exporter of sunflower oil and meal, especially to the EU and China.
• In Brazil, the state of Goias is set to deliver a record sunflower harvest of 71,000 tons, making up over 71% of national production. This surge is attributed to favorable weather and effective crop rotation, showcasing sunflower's adaptability and economic appeal.