This episode provides a comprehensive update on the global canola market as of July 6, 2025.

• In Canada, canola exports have surpassed 8.68 million tons, with full-year projections raised to 9 million tons. However, production is expected to decline slightly to 18.8 million tons due to persistent drought in Western Canada and reduced carryover stocks. Futures prices on the Intercontinental Exchange are trending upward, supported by tight old crop supplies and dry conditions. Cash prices remain strong, but crop quality is a concern, with only 7% rated excellent. The USDA has downgraded export forecasts for 2025–26 to 7.3 million tons amid trade uncertainties, particularly China's imposition of 100% tariffs on Canadian canola.
• Domestic crushing in Canada is projected to hold steady at 11.1 million tons, though the global availability of soybean meal limits growth. In Australia, production is forecasted to fall to 5.7 million tons, down from previous seasons, due to prolonged drought and reduced planting areas. Export potential is also expected to drop, with forecasts down to 4.6 million tons.
• Ukraine anticipates a weaker harvest of 3.73 million tons, primarily due to spring frosts and soil moisture deficits. Consideration of importing genetically modified seeds to support crushing capacity poses a risk to Ukraine’s non-GMO trade status with the EU. The European Union itself is seeing reduced rapeseed cultivation and processing, driven by lower biodiesel demand and higher purchase costs. This has led to a shift toward soybeans, which are more economically viable due to lower-cost imports from South America.
• Moldova is expanding its rapeseed area to 120,000 hectares to compensate for regional supply gaps, boosting exports to Romania and Bulgaria. Globally, rapeseed production is expected to decline from 80.3 million to 75.5 million tons, with notable reductions in the EU, Ukraine, and India. Ongoing trade shifts, including China's tariffs on Canadian canola, are redirecting trade toward markets like India and Russia, underscoring the volatility of the global canola sector amid geopolitical and environmental changes.