Frank Dikötter is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution who has recently returned to the United States after living in Hong Kong since 2006. In this provocative conversation, Dikötter challenges the prevailing narrative about China’s rise. Drawing from his latest book, China After Mao: The Rise of a Superpower, Dikötter argues that the Chinese Communist Party has masterfully projected the image of a powerful, modern, and economically dominant nation—but says that image is largely a façade.

Dikötter contends that far from being a true superpower, China remains fundamentally fragile: an empire held together by repression, propaganda, and paranoia. Despite gleaming cities and impressive-seeming economic statistics often cited by the West, he asserts that much of China’s so-called growth has been built on the backs of an impoverished population, often without its consent or benefit. He further explains how inflated numbers, hollow institutions, and internal contradictions undermine China’s long-term strength. In his view, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) hasn’t lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty—it has merely stepped aside as ordinary people began reclaiming their autonomy after decades of devastation under Mao.

Dikötter delves into how the CCP’s fear—of its own citizens, of capitalism, of peaceful evolution—has driven decisions for decades. Dikötter also draws parallels with the Soviet Union and suggests that, like the USSR’s, China’s power is brittle beneath the surface. Xi Jinping, he argues, is not a break from tradition but a continuation of the Party’s long-standing obsession with control.

This conversation calls into question not only China’s global ambitions but also how the West has consistently misread the CCP’s intentions and capabilities. Ultimately, Dikötter leaves us with a stark question: Are we overestimating China’s strength—and underestimating its fear?

Recorded on March 27, 2025.

Niall Ferguson, preeminent historian and Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, joins this episode of Uncommon Knowledge with Peter Robinson to discuss the war and ongoing stalemate in Ukraine; the Trump administration’s foreign policy and negotiations with Russia; and the broader geopolitical landscape, including the shift in Europe’s defense posture as the US signals a reduced commitment to NATO.

Throughout the conversation, Ferguson explores historical analogies to better understand Ukraine’s position, using comparisons to South Korea and South Vietnam. He discusses China’s backing of Russia and its role in what he calls Cold War II, highlighting the long-term implications of this growing alliance. The discussion also covers the shock strategy deployed by Trump and Vice President JD Vance to pressure Europe into taking more responsibility for its own defense, a move that Ferguson believes has finally awakened European leaders to their countries’ security needs.

Beyond Ukraine, the conversation shifts to the larger economic and military vulnerabilities of the United States, particularly in relation to China. Ferguson argues that America is no longer in a position of overwhelming strength and draws parallels between the US today and Britain in the 1930s: both as declining empires facing an emboldened adversary. He warns that while Trump’s realpolitik approach may be a necessary adaptation to America’s strategic limitations, its success remains uncertain. The discussion ultimately raises the question of whether this strategy will prevent a major conflict or, conversely, accelerate the decline of American global primacy.

Recorded on March 14, 2025

This panel discussion on the legacy of George Shultz, former US secretary of state and Hoover Institution senior fellow, features the Hoover Institution’s director, Condoleezza Rice; Israeli politician and human rights activist Natan Sharansky; and Abraham Sofaer, the former legal advisor to the State Department under George Shultz and the George P. Shultz Senior Fellow in Foreign Policy and National Security Affairs at the Hoover Institution. Together, they reflect on Shultz’s contributions to US foreign policy, human rights, and the end of the Cold War.

The discussion explores Shultz’s deep commitment to human rights, particularly in supporting Soviet refuseniks and advancing the cause of freedom in the USSR. The panelists recount how Shultz worked alongside President Ronald Reagan to integrate human rights into diplomatic negotiations, leverage the Helsinki Accords, and challenge the Soviet Union’s authoritarian system.

Sharansky, a former Soviet dissident imprisoned for 12 years for his activism, shares personal experiences of Shultz’s support for Soviet Jews and recounts the political maneuvering that contributed to his own release. Rice and Sofaer discuss Shultz’s diplomatic philosophy, his strategic role in Reagan’s administration, and his ability to bridge the gap between hardline anti-communism and pragmatic diplomacy.

The conversation also touches on the role of ideas in shaping policy and whether current generations fully grasp the stakes of international conflict in the way Cold War leaders like Shultz and Reagan did. The panelists debate modern revisionist views on the end of the Cold War with a strong defense of Reagan and Shultz’s deliberate strategy to weaken the Soviet Union.

Ultimately, the discussion serves as both a tribute to the life and times of George Shultz and a reflection on leadership, diplomacy, and the enduring battle of ideas in world affairs.

Recorded on February 12, 2025.