The big things you need to know: First, there was very little change last week in the stats we monitor to track reporting season, aside from the continued drift lower in the bottom-up consensus 2025 S&P 500 EPS forecast to a little below $271. Second, uncertainty, policy, tariffs, and FX remained in focus in last week’s earnings calls. Third, we continued to find evidence of weakening vibes in the latest updates from the AAII investor survey, the NFIB Small Business sentiment survey update, and EPFR funds flows.

The big things you need to know: The big things you need to know: First, the earnings backdrop has softened a bit on the stats for the broader US equity market, and has also justified the rotation in performance leadership that has been seen. Second, company commentary in last week’s earnings calls highlighted the uncertain optimism that is driving US equity market performance at the moment. Third, weakness in investor sentiment and a miss on consumer sentiment stand out in our high frequency updates last week. We continue to closely monitor the vibes whose anticipated strength has been an important part of the bullish thesis on the US equity market for 2025.

The big things you need to know: The big things you need to know: First, 4Q24 earnings season looks solid on the stats so far. Second, bulls bounced back in the weekly AAII survey last week, as US equity flows stabilized.