HSL Prime Research

Opening Bell - Daily Morning Commentary

Market to Focus on Derivative Rollovers.

Stock markets closed mixed on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq modestly higher while the Dow Jones fell. U.S. equity markets also closed lower on Tuesday as consumer confidence declined more than expected.

Artificial intelligence chipmaker Nvidia reported better-than-expected quarterly revenue and adjusted earnings per share. Following the announcement, Nvidia's shares rose 3.7% in extended trading.

In economic data, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index increased by 4.5% in December compared to the same period last year, surpassing estimates of 4.4%. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell for the third consecutive month to 98.3 in February, below forecasts of 103.

A draft U.S.-Ukraine agreement on critical minerals and strong corporate earnings helped European shares close at a record high.

Oil prices hit a two-month low due to a surprise increase in U.S. stockpiles, and the growing prospects for a Ukraine-Russia peace deal affected prices.

Asian Pacific stocks displayed mixed reactions following U.S. President Donald Trump's new tariff announcements on the European Union.

The Indian rupee closed sharply lower against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday after experiencing its worst intraday fall in over three weeks, as banks consistently bought dollars.

Market attention will centre on rollover activity today, marking the final day of monthly derivative contracts. As traders adjust positions and transfer contracts to subsequent months, these rollover dynamics will likely drive market movements. FII’s expiration-day flows should provide valuable insights into institutional positioning and market sentiment moving forward.

The Nifty index extended its losing streak to a sixth consecutive session on Tuesday, registering a slight decline to close at 22,547. Critical support is projected at 22450, based on a 76.4% retracement of the uptrend from 21281 (the low in June 2024) to 26277 (the all-time high reached in September 2024). On the upside, the 22700-22800 band is expected to be a significant resistance level.