Episodes

  • Experts, Predictions, and the Uncertainty of the Stock Market, Ep #257

    Experts, Predictions, and the Uncertainty of the Stock Market, Ep #257
    Feb 14 2025
    Did you know that you can pay someone to give you advice on what to bet on? They can look at historical data like rushing and passing yards, touchdowns, and more—but so can we. Honestly, historical data can only tell us so much. If you bet on a game, you are really making a lucky guess. Is it really so different with the stock market? When it comes to predictions—whether for the Super Bowl or the S&P 500—there is a lot of uncertainty. So, let’s break down how predictions are made and whether or not they should guide our investment decisions. [bctt tweet="Predictions are everywhere—whether for the Super Bowl or the stock market. But how reliable are they? In episode 257 of Best in Wealth, we explore the dangers of betting on expert predictions and why diversification is key for your portfolio." username=""] Outline of This Episode
    • [1:13] The Super Bowl: What you can bet on?
    • [2:30] Why are we trusting betting experts?
    • [7:50] Expert predictions for 2025
    • [11:32] Reviewing predictions from 2024
    • [18:06] How do we build a portfolio?

    Expert predictions for 2025 Most of the top analysts—Oppenheimer, Wells Fargo, Deutsche Bank, and others—are bullish, predicting that the S&P 500 will rise in 2025. The consensus seems to suggest that the market will average a 10% return, which has been the long-term norm. Oppenheimer Asset Management stands out with an optimistic prediction of 18.4%, implying that 2025 could be a great year for the market. However, these predictions come with a significant caveat—the stock market, especially the S&P 500, is notoriously volatile. We have seen massive swings in the past, from a 38% drop in 2008 during the Great Recession to a 25% rise in 2024. BCA Research, on the other hand, predicts a 25.8% drop, highlighting just how different expert opinions can be. This stark difference—43% apart between two top analysts—raises an important question: if the experts cannot agree, how reliable are their predictions? It is a reminder that while these predictions may be based on data, the unpredictability of the market remains ever-present. [bctt tweet="Experts predict the future, but how often are they right? In episode 257 of Best in Wealth, we dive into the unpredictability of stock market forecasts and share why building a diversified portfolio is your best bet for long-term success." username=""] Reviewing predictions from 2024 Did the experts hit the mark last year? The S&P 500 went up around 25% (with dividends) and 23.3% without dividends.
    • Oppenheimer, the most bullish of the experts, predicted a modest 8% increase, but the market ended up being nearly three times better than that!
    • Many other firms—Goldman Sachs, BMO, Bank of America—also predicted positive returns, but the actual outcome was far beyond their expectations.
    • In a striking example, some analysts predicted that the S&P 500 would finish the year with negative returns—forecasts that couldn’t have been further from reality.

    This discrepancy illustrates an important point: even the most well-educated and experienced analysts can be drastically wrong. It shows that predictions are based on what experts know at the time, but they can't account for the countless variables that influence market behavior throughout the year, such as political changes, economic developments, and unforeseen global events. How do financial stewards build a portfolio? The answer is diversification. Family stewards—those who manage wealth and invest for future generations—should focus on creating a well-rounded portfolio that can weather any storm. Rather than betting on predictions, diversify your investments across a wide range of asset classes: large-cap stocks, small-cap stocks, international investments, emerging markets, real estate, and bonds. By spreading your...
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    21 mins
  • The Ultimate Planner to Jumpstart Your 2025, Ep #256

    The Ultimate Planner to Jumpstart Your 2025, Ep #256
    Jan 10 2025
    Today, I am sharing something that my family has fallen in love with—The Clever Fox Dated Planner. This planner goes beyond simple scheduling with features like a gratitude section, vision board, habit tracker, and tools for setting and achieving SMART goals. It is designed to help you reflect, plan, and improve every week. If you are ready to take control of your time and goals, let me tell you all about it! [bctt tweet="Start 2025 strong with the Clever Fox Dated Planner! This isn’t just a planner—it’s a tool to reflect, set SMART goals, track habits, and create a vision for your year. My family loves it, and I know you will too. #SMARTGoals #Habits #Goals #Planner" username=""] Outline of This Episode
    • (1:09) I hope you had a wonderful Christmas and New Year!
    • (2:36) The planner that we bought for the entire family
    • (15:45) Spend some time zeroing in on your goals for 2025

    The planner that we bought for the entire family We bought the Clever Fox Dated Planner with habit trackers for goal setting and time management for everyone in the family. Though we were a bit worried that they would not be excited, surprisingly, everyone loved it. But why do I love this planner so much? Because of everything it includes:
    • How-to Guide: It comes with a pamphlet, “How this planner works.” They tell you where to begin, what to think about, and share examples.
    • Gratitude and Self-Awareness: This section gives you space to write down what you are grateful for and passionate about.
    • Daily Rituals: This is an opportunity to think about the skills you want to learn and habits you want to adopt. Maybe a ritual is drinking more water, meditating, or going to the gym.
    • Affirmations: Short sentences with an optimistic tone stated in the present tense, i.e., “I am an architect of my life.” They give you confidence.
    • Vision Board: They provide a two-page outlay where you can create your vision and get clear on what you want from life.
    • Goals: You are given space to write three goals for each of these sections: health & fitness, business & career, personal development, relationships, family & friends, fun & recreation, and spirituality.
    • Mind-Map: This section helps you take the big goals you have written down and break them down into smaller pieces.
    • Monthly Page: This is a full page just like a typical planner (months January through January). It includes areas to write notes and goals.
    • Weekly pages: This allows you to write out the week’s main goals, priorities, etc.
    • Habit Tracker: You can write down things you want to turn into habits. It allows you to check a box for each day.

    Each weekly section includes an area where you can write down how you will improve the next week. What did you not do that you should have? How can you improve the next day and week? [bctt tweet="Why do I love the Clever Fox Planner? It’s packed with features: Gratitude & affirmations, vision board, goal-setting tools, weekly reflection, and a habit tracker. It’s everything you need to stay organized and crush your 2025 #goals. #Gratitude #BestInWealth #Planner " username=""] Implement SMART goals I try to record an episode about goal-setting at the beginning of every year and always encourage you to make sure that your goals are SMART:
    • Specific
    • Measurable
    • Achievable
    • Relevant
    • Time-Bound

    Your goal might be to pay off a credit card by the end of the year. Maybe it is to run a half-marathon by June 15th. Here is my challenge: Write out five SMART goals you want to achieve in 2025 (and it...
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    19 mins
  • Why I Don’t Want You to Spend the Money in Your HSA, Ep #255

    Why I Don’t Want You to Spend the Money in Your HSA, Ep #255
    Dec 13 2024
    What is an HSA? Who can invest in one? What can you use the money for? Why do I love them? Why shouldn’t you spend the money you save in an HSA? I will unravel all of these questions in this episode of Best in Wealth. [bctt tweet="Why don’t I want you to spend the money you’ve saved in your #HSA? I share the surprising truth in this episode of Best in Wealth! #retirement #Investing #RetirementPlanning #FinancialPlanning " username=""] Outline of This Episode
    • [1:08] It is time to plan your 2025 goals
    • [3:14] What is an HSA?
    • [4:48] How can I invest in an HSA?
    • [6:43] Why I like HSA accounts
    • [7:43] How much can you save in an HSA?
    • [9:13] What can I spend the money on?
    • [11:11] What if you cannot afford to save in an HSA?
    • [12:13] Don’t spend the money in your HSA

    The basics of an HSA An HSA is a health savings account. Do not confuse it with a flexible savings account, or FSA. An FSA allows you to save money—taken out of your paycheck with a tax deduction—that can be used for healthcare expenses. The money must be used within a certain timeframe. If you leave your employer, that money is gone. However, an HSA does not require you to spend the money if you do not want to. If you leave your employer, that HSA account is yours for life. To qualify for an HSA, you must have a high-deductible insurance plan with a minimum annual deductible of $1,650 and an out-of-pocket maximum of $8,300 or more in 2025 (for families, it’s $3,350 and $16,600). [bctt tweet="What are the basics of HSAs? Why do I love them? Learn the amazing details in this episode of Best in Wealth. #WealthManagement #Retire #Investments" username=""] Why I like HSA accounts Some of the benefits I have stated already: You get a tax deduction for every dollar you put in. Secondly, there are no income limit caps on who is allowed to have an HSA. HSA accounts allow you to take that money with you wherever you go and you do not have to spend it. Secondly, an HSA allows you to save quite a bit of money. An individual is allowed to contribute $4,300 in 2025. Families can contribute up to $8,550. If you turn 55 in 2025, you can contribute an extra $1,000. If you are in the 24% tax bracket, you will save $2,300 in taxes in 2025 by putting that money away in an HSA. Your deduction will change based on the tax bracket you are in. What can you spend the money on? Healthcare-related expenses (except the monthly premium). It can go toward copays, out-of-pocket expenses, coinsurance, medicines, etc. Medical expenses add up quickly. Why I do not want you to spend the money in your HSA The simple answer? Because you can invest the money. Many HSA accounts allow you to invest the money once you have saved $1,000. If you start saving $8,000+ a year for the next 20 years, think of how much it will grow by the time you retire. It is a great way to fund your healthcare in retirement. The next best part? Let’s say you contributed $250,000 and it grew to $500,000. When that money is used on healthcare expenses, you do not have to pay taxes on that growth. Once you retire, and go on Medicare, HSA money can be used to pay for Part B and D expenses. In 2025, the starting cost of Medicare is $185 a month. If your Modified Adjusted Gross Income is high, you may be paying a lot more for Medicare. If you do not end up spending the money on healthcare, once you turn 65, you can use the money on whatever you want—with one caveat. You will have to pay taxes on those dollars (just like a traditional IRA or 401K). Listen to the whole episode for all of the details! [bctt tweet="HSAs offer amazing tax benefits. But why else do I love them? I cover the details in this episode. #retirement #Investing #RetirementPlanning #FinancialPlanning " username=""] Connect With Scott Wellens
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      20 mins
    • The Importance of Remaining Disciplined with Asset Allocation, Ep #254

      The Importance of Remaining Disciplined with Asset Allocation, Ep #254
      Nov 15 2024
      We invest in large companies, small companies, value companies, international companies, emerging markets, etc. We practice discipline when investing in all of these asset classes. If we want 20% of a portfolio allocated to large value, we maintain that percentage. We also practice strategic rebalancing. If something has an upward momentum, we set tolerance zones. If we go above or below those tolerances, we buy or sell. We practice discipline. Why? I share more in this episode of Best in Wealth. [bctt tweet="Discipline in asset allocation means sticking to your plan—no matter the headlines. Find out why this matters in today’s investing landscape. 🎧 #AssetAllocation #InvestingDiscipline #BestInWealth" username=""] Outline of This Episode
      • [1:02] The importance of reading the full story
      • [3:13] Why we practice discipline in asset classes
      • [8:00] Taking a look at the big picture
      • [11:02] Developed markets vs emerging markets
      • [13:23] A disciplined approach to investing matters

      Why we practice discipline in asset classes By the end of the third quarter of 2024, the S&P 500 was up almost 20%. It is up another 6% since then. The S&P 500 is one of our best-performing asset classes. If we are just reading the headline, “The S&P 500 is doing the best,” we might think we should put more money in. But hindsight is 2020. And if we would have listened to the experts, many of them said that small-caps were going to perform the best in 2024. But small-caps are only up a little over 10% after the third quarter. It has also gone up 6–8% since then but is still underperforming the S&P 500. If we would have listened to the experts, we would be tempted to put more money into small-caps. But that is not the right decision either. We need to remain disciplined to our plan for each asset class. [bctt tweet="The S&P 500 is up, but that doesn't mean we chase momentum. Strategic rebalancing is key! Learn how to stay disciplined in your investment choices. #InvestingStrategy #AssetClasses #WealthManagement" username=""] Taking a look at the big picture Looking back 95 years, the small-cap index has done better than the large-cap index. We call this the small-cap premium. However, it comes with more risk. Because of the risk, investors demand a higher average return for owning smaller companies. Our portfolios skew more large than small because of the risk. However, we do want to capitalize on some of those returns—but not because of headlines. If you choose something riskier, it will not always do better. On average, stocks do better than bonds because they are riskier—but it does not mean stocks always beat bonds. Developed market small-caps on average bean developed markets large-caps by about a percent and a half per year. Small-caps over the last 20 years perform better than large-caps in emerging markets. Remember, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Have small-caps underperformed large-caps in the recent past? Yes. Does that mean we abandon small-caps? No? Does that mean the premium is gone? We do not think so. A disciplined approach to investing matters We need to investigate every headline that we read because they don’t tell the full story. If we’re just reading the headlines, we might make an emotional decision about asset allocation. We cannot try to guess which asset class will do the best. When we do that, we are putting our family and our future in jeopardy. A disciplined approach to investing matters. Learn more in this episode of Best in Wealth. [bctt tweet="Reading the full story helps you make smarter choices. Get the full breakdown on disciplined investing in today’s episode of Best in Wealth! #InvestingInsights #BestInWealthPodcast" username=""] Connect With Scott Wellens
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      16 mins
    • Are You in the Top 5% of Income-Earners or Net Worth? Ep #253

      Are You in the Top 5% of Income-Earners or Net Worth? Ep #253
      Oct 18 2024
      Ever wondered where you rank financially among Americans? Curious about what it takes to join the top 5% in income or net worth? Every three years, the Fed surveys the finances of American households, tracking assets, debt, and more. One of the things they cover is who landed in the top 5% of both income earned and net worth. In this episode of Best in Wealth, I will share the income that puts you in the top 5% of income earners by age, what lands you in the top 5% of net worth by age, and why none of it matters. Don’t miss it! [bctt tweet="Are you in the top 5% of income-earners or net worth? Learn what it takes in this episode of Best in Wealth! #PersonalFinance #FinancialPlanning #Wealth #WealthManagement " username=""] Outline of This Episode
      • [1:15] Getting into the University of Wisconsin Madison
      • [3:21] The income that puts you in the top 5% of income
      • [11:12] Individual versus household income
      • [12:00] The income that puts you in the top 5% of net worth
      • [17:21] Are you in the top 5% of income or net worth?

      The income that puts you in the top 5% of earned income by age Do you land anywhere in these brackets?
      • 18-29: If you earn $156,732 or more, you are in the top 5%. You are just launching your career and starting to earn an income.
      • 30-39: If you earn $292,927 or more, you are in the top 5%. You are getting more established in your career and perhaps started a business or received a promotion.
      • 40-49: If you earn $404,261 or more, you are in the top 5%. Maybe you continued to receive promotions or your business grew.
      • 50-59: If you earn $598,825 or more, you are in the top 5%. The 50s are your highest potential for earnings years. Maybe you sold your business or became the CEO of a company.
      • 60-69: If you earn $496,139 or more, you are in the top 5%. You may be retired and living on social security and your investments during these years.
      • 70 or older: If you earn $350,215 or more, you are in the top 5%. Most people in their 70s probably are not working any longer and that income is being derived from Social Security, pensions, and investments.

      What does it take to be in the top 5% of households? If you earn $499,000 or more, at any age, you are in the top 5% of all income earners. [bctt tweet="What income puts you in the top 5% of earned income by age? I hash out the numbers in episode 253 of Best in Wealth! #wealth #retirement #investing" username=""] The income that puts you in the top 5% of net worth What does the top 5% of net worth look like in each age group?
      • 18-29: $415,700 or higher
      • 30-39: $1,104,100 or higher
      • 40-49: $2,500,000 or higher
      • 50-59: $5,001,600 or higher
      • 60-69: $6,684,220 or higher
      • 70 or older: $5,860,400 or higher

      Your net worth is far more important than your income. You can make all of the money in the world but if you do not save anything, your net worth will never increase. It will stay zero. Secondly, you can earn a lot less than the top 5% of income earners and still save enough to be in the top 5% of net worth. Are you in the top 5% of income or net worth? It is okay if you do not fall into any of these categories—they can be very skewed. Numerous factors impact these numbers. Secondly, these numbers don’t matter. If you have the right retirement plan for you, you will have the retirement of your dreams regardless of whether or not you land in the top 5%. [bctt tweet="Are you in the top 5% of income or net worth? Does it matter? Let’s hash it out in this episode of
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      20 mins
    • Demystifying Financial Advisors, Ep #252

      Demystifying Financial Advisors, Ep #252
      Oct 4 2024
      Did you know that anyone can say they are a financial advisor? They may not be licensed or experienced. So how do you know who to trust? In this episode of Best in Wealth, I will break down the three types of people who put “financial advisor” on their business cards, what the letters after a financial advisor's name mean, and how a fee-only financial advisor is compensated for their services. Knowing all of these things will help you determine what type of advisor is right for you to help you achieve a successful retirement. [bctt tweet="Did you know that anyone can say they’re a financial advisor? They may not be licensed or experienced. So how do you know who to trust? Find out in episode 252 of Best in Wealth! #Retirement #Investing #PersonalFinance " username=""] Outline of This Episode
      • [1:08] High expectations do not leave room for satisfactory outcomes
      • [6:17] The 3 types of people who put “financial advisor” on their business cards
      • [19:14] How fee-only financial advisors charge for their services
      • [22:34] What do the letters after a financial advisor's name mean?
      • [24:17] Work with someone you can build a connection with

      The 3 types of financial advisors Three different types of people typically put “financial advisor” on their business cards:
      1. Insurance Sales Representative: They are required to be licensed to discuss or sell insurance. Their main goal is to sell you life insurance (typically whole life insurance that can be invested and earn dividends and be used for retirement). Is someone who can only sell life insurance acting in your best interest all of the time? How could they be? They make a commission on the insurance product that they sell you.
      2. Registered Representative/Broker-Dealer: They take an exam to be “registered” to sell securities, mutual funds, life insurance policies, etc. They are paid by commission, much like insurance representatives. Or they will recommend a mutual fund where they get a percentage (annual 12B1 fees and more). They are also not fiduciaries.
      3. Investment Advisor Representative: They must take a securities exam that also covers laws required to act as a fiduciary. An investment advisor is prohibited from collecting commissions. The fees they collect come directly from the client. They can call themselves fee-only representatives.

      I am a fee-only Investment Advisor Representative. I do not co-mingle with insurance sales representatives or registered representatives. It removes any conflict of interest. I am not beholden to any company. I must act in the best interest of my clients. Most financial advisors are dually registered. They may have an insurance or broker license. Listen to find out what questions you have to ask an advisor to find out if they are strictly an Investment Advisor Representative. [bctt tweet="In this episode of Best in Wealth, I’ll break down the three types of people who put “financial advisor” on their business cards and why it matters. #FinancialPlanning #RetirementPlanning #WealthManagement" username=""] How fee-only financial advisors charge for their services There are four primary ways a fee-only advisor might get paid:
      • Hourly: You hire a financial advisor to create a financial or retirement plan and you pay them for the hours it takes to do the job. It is a short-term relationship.
      • One-time planning: A one-time plan may cost you $5,000–$7,000, which you pay once. They deliver the plan and you write them a check. It is a short-term relationship.
      • Monthly retainers: The advisor might charge a couple hundred dollars a month, depending on the complexity of your plan. This may be great for someone who needs...
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      27 mins
    • Does the Outcome of the Presidential Election Impact My Investments? Ep #251

      Does the Outcome of the Presidential Election Impact My Investments? Ep #251
      Sep 20 2024
      Do we care who wins the election? Does it actually impact our investments? The issues at stake matter to each of us for different reasons. Most Democrats think things will be better if a Democrat is voted into office. Most Republicans likely feel that things will fare better with a Republican in office. But does who wins the election actually matter when it comes to your investments? I will break it down in this episode of Best in Wealth. [bctt tweet="Does the outcome of the presidential election impact your investments? I share the surprising answer in episode #251 of Best in Wealth! #Investing #FinancialPlanning #WealthManagement " username=""] Outline of This Episode
      • [1:08] September is never a good month in the stock market
      • [4:02] Stock market statistics during each presidency
      • [15:32] What do we do with this information?
      • [20:17] Can a President influence the stock market?

      Stock market statistics during each presidency for the last 100 years We have had 17 presidents since 1926. Nine of the presidents were red, eight were blue. How did the stock market fare during their presidencies?
      • Calvin Coolidge (Republican) was President from 1923-1926: If you invested $1 the day he became president, that dollar would’ve turned into $2.33.
      • Herbert Hoover (Republican) was president from 1929-1933, during the Great Recession: Inflation was -0.7%. The annual GDP was negative 7.5%. Your $1 would have dwindled to $0.28.
      • Franklin D. Roosevelt (Democrat) was president from 1933-1945: Democrats controlled the Senate and the House. Unemployment was 25.6%. The average GDP was 9.4%. Your $1 doubled twice and then some—becoming $4.61.
      • Harry Truman (Democrat) was President from 1945-1953: Max unemployment was 7.9%. He inherited the end of Hoover’s recession. Annualized inflation was 5.4%. The average GDP was 1.3%. Your $1 turned into $3.10.
      • Dwight Eisenhower (Republican) was President from 1953–1961. Max unemployment was 7.5%. The average inflation was 1.4%. The average GDP was 3%. There were three different recessions during his term in office. Your $1 turned into $3.05.
      • John F. Kennedy (Democrat) was President from 1961-1963. Democrats controlled the House and Senate. Max unemployment was 7.1%. The average inflation was 1.2%. The average GDP was 4.4%. Your $1 turned into $1.39.
      • Linden B. Johnson (Democrat) was President from 1963-1969. Democrats controlled the House and Senate. Max unemployment was 5.7%. The average inflation was 2.8%. The average GDP was 5.3%. Your $1 turned into $1.66.
      • Richard Nixon (Republican) was President from 1969-1974: Democrats controlled the House and Senate. Max unemployment was 6.1%. The average inflation was 6%. The average GDP was 2.8%. Your $1 stayed $1.
      • Gerald Ford (Republican) was President from 1974-1977: Democrats controlled the House and Senate. Max unemployment was 9%. The average inflation was 6.5%. The average GDP was 2.6%. There was a huge recession when he first started. Your $1 turned into $1.51.
      • James (Jimmy) Carter (Democrat) was president from 1977-1981: Democrats controlled the House and Senate. Maximum unemployment was 7.8%. The average inflation was 10.2%. The average GDP was 3.3%. Your $1 turned into $1.55.
      • Ronald Reagan (Republican) was president from 1981-1989: Democrats controlled the House and the Senate was mixed. Max unemployment was 10.8%. The average inflation was 4.2%. The average GDP was 3.5%. Your $1 turned into $2.89.
      • George H. W. Bush (Republican) was President from 1989-1993:...
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      23 mins
    • 6 Lessons from Fritz Gilbert’s 6 Years of Retirement, Ep #250

      6 Lessons from Fritz Gilbert’s 6 Years of Retirement, Ep #250
      Aug 30 2024
      I frequently talk about what you should do to prepare for retirement and how to handle the years leading to retirement. But I rarely talk about what to do during retirement because I have not experienced it. [bctt tweet="Retirement will be different than you expect. How? Learn more in episode #250 of Best in Wealth! #wealth #retirement #investing #PersonalFinance #FinancialPlanning #RetirementPlanning #WealthManagement" username="wellensscott"] So when I came across Fritz Gilbert’s article, “6 Lessons from 6 Years of Retirement,” I knew I had to talk about it. In the article, Fritz talks about the surprising things he has learned six years into retirement. I will cover the fascinating lessons in this episode of Best in Wealth. Outline of This Episode
      • [1:06] Thank you for being loyal listeners!
      • [1:36] What should you do during retirement?
      • [4:52] Lesson #1: Retirement is complex
      • [7:47] Lesson #2: Retirement changes with time
      • [10:45] Lesson #3: Retirement will be different than you expect
      • [14:17] Lesson #4: Your priorities will change throughout retirement
      • [17:45] Lesson #5: Your mindset matters a lot
      • [18:58] Lesson #6: Retirement can be the best years of your life

      Lesson #1: Retirement is complex When you retire, you have far fewer external influences than during your working years. Money issues are top-of-mind during the early phase of retirement. It is scary moving from collecting a paycheck for 30+ years to starting to live off of your nest egg. But Fritz believes that true value comes by figuring out all of the non-financial issues in retirement. [bctt tweet="Your mindset matters a lot in retirement. Find out why in episode #250 of Best in Wealth! #wealth #retirement #investing #PersonalFinance #FinancialPlanning #RetirementPlanning #WealthManagement" username="wellensscott"] Lesson #2: Retirement changes with time Your experience will change as you move from the honeymoon stage to more advanced stages. The changes will last for years and will be different than what you expect. Your retirement plan will change. Your new reality requires a new approach. Embracing the challenge is part of the fun. Why not enjoy the new life? You get to experiment as you face the changes. Lesson #3: Retirement will be different than you expect I spend a lot of time talking about retirement goals with my clients. Whether it is traveling,...
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      24 mins