
Proof
The Art and Science of Certainty
Failed to add items
Add to Cart failed.
Add to Wish List failed.
Remove from wishlist failed.
Adding to library failed
Follow podcast failed
Unfollow podcast failed
$0.99/mo for the first 3 months

Get 2 free audiobooks during trial.
Pre-order for $21.83
No default payment method selected.
We are sorry. We are not allowed to sell this product with the selected payment method
-
Narrated by:
-
Nathaniel Priestley
-
By:
-
Adam Kucharski
About this listen
How do we establish what we believe? And how can we be certain that what we believe is true? And how do we convince other people that it is true? For thousands of years, from the ancient Greeks to the Arabic golden age to the modern world, science has used different methods—logical, empirical, intuitive, and more—to separate fact from fiction. But it all had the same goal: find perfect evidence and be rewarded with universal truth.
As mathematician Adam Kucharski shows, however, there is far more to proof than axioms, theories, and laws: when demonstrating that a new medical treatment works, persuading a jury of someone’s guilt, or deciding whether you trust a self-driving car, the weighing up of evidence is far from simple. To discover proof, we must reach into a thicket of errors and biases and embrace uncertainty—and never more so than when existing methods fail.
Spanning mathematics, science, politics, philosophy, and economics, this book offers the ultimate exploration of how we can find our way to proof—and, just as importantly, of how to go forward when supposed facts falter.©2025 Adam Kucharski (P)2025 Basic Books
Critic reviews
Related to this topic
-
Brain Energy
- A Revolutionary Breakthrough in Understanding Mental Health—and Improving Treatment for Anxiety, Depression, OCD, PTSD, and More
- By: Christopher M. Palmer MD
- Narrated by: Christopher M. Palmer MD
- Length: 12 hrs and 18 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
We are in the midst of a global mental health crisis, and mental illnesses are on the rise. But what causes mental illness? And why are mental health problems so hard to treat? Drawing on decades of research, Harvard psychiatrist Dr. Chris Palmer outlines a revolutionary new understanding that for the first time unites our existing knowledge about mental illness within a single framework: mental disorders are metabolic disorders of the brain. Brain Energy will transform the field of mental health, and the lives of countless people around the world.
-
-
Arguing brain health theory to medical profession
- By Maya H Saric on 03-10-23
-
My Big TOE: Awakening
- Book One of a Trilogy Unifying Philosophy, Physics, and Metaphysics
- By: Thomas Campbell
- Narrated by: Thomas Campbell
- Length: 11 hrs and 11 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
My Big TOE: Awakening, written by a nuclear physicist in the language of contemporary culture, unifies science and philosophy, physics and metaphysics, mind and matter, purpose and meaning, the normal and the paranormal. The entirety of human experience (mind, body, and spirit) including both our objective and subjective worlds is brought together under one seamless scientific understanding.
-
-
What a Trip (but to where?)
- By Michael on 11-26-13
By: Thomas Campbell
-
The Selfish Gene
- By: Richard Dawkins
- Narrated by: Richard Dawkins, Lalla Ward
- Length: 16 hrs and 12 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Richard Dawkins' brilliant reformulation of the theory of natural selection has the rare distinction of having provoked as much excitement and interest outside the scientific community as within it. His theories have helped change the whole nature of the study of social biology, and have forced thousands to rethink their beliefs about life.
-
-
Better than print!
- By J. D. May on 07-31-12
By: Richard Dawkins
-
Napoleon's Hemorrhoids…And Other Small Events That Changed History
- By: Phil Mason
- Narrated by: LJ Ganser
- Length: 8 hrs and 13 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Hilarious, fascinating, and a roller coaster of dizzying, historical what-ifs, Napoleon's Hemorrhoids is a potpourri for serious historians and casual history buffs. In one of Phil Mason's many revelations, you'll learn that Communist jets were two minutes away from opening fire on American planes during the Cuban missile crisis, when they had to turn back as they were running out of fuel. You'll discover that before the Battle of Waterloo, Napoleon's painful hemorrhoids prevented him from mounting his horse to survey the battlefield.
-
-
They just throw the facts too fast
- By Concerned_llama on 12-11-20
By: Phil Mason
-
How the Earth Works
- By: Michael E. Wysession, The Great Courses
- Narrated by: Michael E. Wysession
- Length: 24 hrs and 31 mins
- Original Recording
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
How the Earth Works takes you on an astonishing journey through time and space. In 48 lectures, you will look at what went into making our planet - from the big bang, to the formation of the solar system, to the subsequent evolution of Earth.
-
-
Excellent course
- By Doug B. on 05-23-19
By: Michael E. Wysession, and others
-
Chemistry and Our Universe
- How It All Works
- By: Ron B. Davis, The Great Courses
- Narrated by: Ron B. Davis
- Length: 30 hrs and 6 mins
- Original Recording
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Chemistry and Our Universe: How It All Works is your in-depth introduction to this vital field, taught through 60 engaging half-hour lectures that are suitable for any background or none at all. Covering a year’s worth of introductory general chemistry at the college level, plus intriguing topics that are rarely discussed in the classroom, this amazingly comprehensive course requires nothing more advanced than high-school math. Your guide is Professor Ron B. Davis, Jr., a research chemist and award-winning teacher at Georgetown University.
-
-
Great Professor, Hard to Follow.
- By Jen on 05-14-19
By: Ron B. Davis, and others
-
Brain Energy
- A Revolutionary Breakthrough in Understanding Mental Health—and Improving Treatment for Anxiety, Depression, OCD, PTSD, and More
- By: Christopher M. Palmer MD
- Narrated by: Christopher M. Palmer MD
- Length: 12 hrs and 18 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
We are in the midst of a global mental health crisis, and mental illnesses are on the rise. But what causes mental illness? And why are mental health problems so hard to treat? Drawing on decades of research, Harvard psychiatrist Dr. Chris Palmer outlines a revolutionary new understanding that for the first time unites our existing knowledge about mental illness within a single framework: mental disorders are metabolic disorders of the brain. Brain Energy will transform the field of mental health, and the lives of countless people around the world.
-
-
Arguing brain health theory to medical profession
- By Maya H Saric on 03-10-23
-
My Big TOE: Awakening
- Book One of a Trilogy Unifying Philosophy, Physics, and Metaphysics
- By: Thomas Campbell
- Narrated by: Thomas Campbell
- Length: 11 hrs and 11 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
My Big TOE: Awakening, written by a nuclear physicist in the language of contemporary culture, unifies science and philosophy, physics and metaphysics, mind and matter, purpose and meaning, the normal and the paranormal. The entirety of human experience (mind, body, and spirit) including both our objective and subjective worlds is brought together under one seamless scientific understanding.
-
-
What a Trip (but to where?)
- By Michael on 11-26-13
By: Thomas Campbell
-
The Selfish Gene
- By: Richard Dawkins
- Narrated by: Richard Dawkins, Lalla Ward
- Length: 16 hrs and 12 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Richard Dawkins' brilliant reformulation of the theory of natural selection has the rare distinction of having provoked as much excitement and interest outside the scientific community as within it. His theories have helped change the whole nature of the study of social biology, and have forced thousands to rethink their beliefs about life.
-
-
Better than print!
- By J. D. May on 07-31-12
By: Richard Dawkins
-
Napoleon's Hemorrhoids…And Other Small Events That Changed History
- By: Phil Mason
- Narrated by: LJ Ganser
- Length: 8 hrs and 13 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Hilarious, fascinating, and a roller coaster of dizzying, historical what-ifs, Napoleon's Hemorrhoids is a potpourri for serious historians and casual history buffs. In one of Phil Mason's many revelations, you'll learn that Communist jets were two minutes away from opening fire on American planes during the Cuban missile crisis, when they had to turn back as they were running out of fuel. You'll discover that before the Battle of Waterloo, Napoleon's painful hemorrhoids prevented him from mounting his horse to survey the battlefield.
-
-
They just throw the facts too fast
- By Concerned_llama on 12-11-20
By: Phil Mason
-
How the Earth Works
- By: Michael E. Wysession, The Great Courses
- Narrated by: Michael E. Wysession
- Length: 24 hrs and 31 mins
- Original Recording
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
How the Earth Works takes you on an astonishing journey through time and space. In 48 lectures, you will look at what went into making our planet - from the big bang, to the formation of the solar system, to the subsequent evolution of Earth.
-
-
Excellent course
- By Doug B. on 05-23-19
By: Michael E. Wysession, and others
-
Chemistry and Our Universe
- How It All Works
- By: Ron B. Davis, The Great Courses
- Narrated by: Ron B. Davis
- Length: 30 hrs and 6 mins
- Original Recording
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Chemistry and Our Universe: How It All Works is your in-depth introduction to this vital field, taught through 60 engaging half-hour lectures that are suitable for any background or none at all. Covering a year’s worth of introductory general chemistry at the college level, plus intriguing topics that are rarely discussed in the classroom, this amazingly comprehensive course requires nothing more advanced than high-school math. Your guide is Professor Ron B. Davis, Jr., a research chemist and award-winning teacher at Georgetown University.
-
-
Great Professor, Hard to Follow.
- By Jen on 05-14-19
By: Ron B. Davis, and others
-
Letters from an Astrophysicist
- By: Neil deGrasse Tyson
- Narrated by: Neil deGrasse Tyson, Vikas Adam, Piper Goodeve, and others
- Length: 5 hrs and 35 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson has attracted one of the world’s largest online followings with his fascinating, widely accessible insights into science and our universe. Now, Tyson invites us to go behind the scenes of his public fame by unveiling his candid correspondence with people across the globe who have sought him out in search of answers. In this hand-picked collection of 100 letters, Tyson draws upon cosmic perspectives to address a vast array of questions about science, faith, philosophy, life, and of course, Pluto.
-
-
Dear Neil...
- By Tina G. on 10-14-19
-
Inspired
- How to Create Tech Products Customers Love, Second Edition
- By: Marty Cagan
- Narrated by: Marty Cagan
- Length: 7 hrs and 45 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
How do today's most successful tech companies - Amazon, Google, Facebook, Netflix, Tesla - design, develop, and deploy the products that have earned the love of literally billions of people around the world? Perhaps surprisingly, they do it very differently from the vast majority of tech companies. In Inspired, technology product management thought leader Marty Cagan provides listeners with a master class in how to structure and staff a vibrant and successful product organization and how to discover and deliver technology products that your customers will love.
-
-
Great book, terrible audio wanted to ask a refund
- By Srikanth Ramanujam on 11-15-18
By: Marty Cagan
-
Ranger Confidential
- Living, Working, and Dying in the National Parks
- By: Andrea Lankford
- Narrated by: Julia Motyka
- Length: 9 hrs and 28 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
The real stories behind the scenery of America’s national parks. For 12 years, Andrea Lankford lived in the biggest, most impressive national parks in the world, working a job she loved. She chaperoned baby sea turtles on their journey to sea. She pursued bad guys on her galloping patrol horse. She jumped into rescue helicopters bound for the heart of the Grand Canyon. She won arguments with bears. She slept with a few too many rattlesnakes. Hell yeah, it was the best job in the world! Fortunately, Andrea survived it.
-
-
Depressing from Cover to Cover
- By Drew (@drewsant) on 04-13-15
By: Andrea Lankford
-
The Quantum Universe
- (And Why Anything That Can Happen, Does)
- By: Brian Cox, Jeff Forshaw
- Narrated by: Samuel West
- Length: 8 hrs and 28 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
In The Quantum Universe, Brian Cox and Jeff Forshaw approach the world of quantum mechanics in the same way they did in Why Does E=mc2? and make fundamental scientific principles accessible - and fascinating - to everyone.The subatomic realm has a reputation for weirdness, spawning any number of profound misunderstandings, journeys into Eastern mysticism, and woolly pronouncements on the interconnectedness of all things. Cox and Forshaw's contention? There is no need for quantum mechanics to be viewed this way.
-
-
Not suitable as an audio book
- By SPN on 03-29-22
By: Brian Cox, and others
-
Bernoulli's Fallacy
- Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science
- By: Aubrey Clayton
- Narrated by: Tim H. Dixon
- Length: 15 hrs and 14 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Aubrey Clayton traces the history of how statistics went astray, beginning with the groundbreaking work of the 17th-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. Clayton recounts the feuds among rival schools of statistics, exploring the surprisingly human problems that gave rise to the discipline and the all-too-human shortcomings that derailed it.
-
-
Rigorously Bayesian
- By Anonymous User on 01-25-22
By: Aubrey Clayton
-
Welcome to the Universe
- An Astrophysical Tour
- By: Michael A. Strauss, J. Richard Gott, Neil deGrasse Tyson
- Narrated by: Michael Butler Murray
- Length: 17 hrs and 53 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Welcome to the Universe is a personal guided tour of the cosmos by three of today's leading astrophysicists. Inspired by the enormously popular introductory astronomy course that Neil deGrasse Tyson, Michael A. Strauss, and J. Richard Gott taught together at Princeton, this book covers it all - from planets, stars, and galaxies to black holes, wormholes, and time travel.
-
-
All About What We Know About the Universe - ALL
- By J.B. on 02-17-17
By: Michael A. Strauss, and others
People who viewed this also viewed...
-
The Rules of Contagion
- Why Things Spread - and Why They Stop
- By: Adam Kucharski
- Narrated by: Joe Jameson
- Length: 8 hrs and 47 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
These days, whenever anything spreads, whether it's a YouTube fad or a political rumor, we say it went viral. But how does virality actually work? In The Rules of Contagion, epidemiologist Adam Kucharski explores topics including gun violence, online manipulation, and, of course, outbreaks of disease to show how much we get wrong about contagion, and how astonishing the real science is. Why did the president retweet a Mussolini quote as his own? Why do financial bubbles take off so quickly?
-
-
Brilliant and so relavent
- By touristth on 12-15-20
By: Adam Kucharski
-
The Art of Uncertainty
- How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck
- By: David Spiegelhalter
- Narrated by: David Spiegelhalter
- Length: 10 hrs and 51 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Renowned statistician David Spiegelhalter shows how we can become better at dealing with what we don't know to make smarter choices in a world so full of puzzling variables. In lucid, lively prose, Spiegelhalter guides us through the principles of probability, illustrating how they can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to sports to climate change forecasts.
-
-
Terrific
- By Roger March on 04-01-25
-
Perfect Bet
- How Science and Math Are Taking the Luck out of Gambling
- By: Adam Kucharski
- Narrated by: Jonathan Yen
- Length: 8 hrs and 34 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
From the simple to the intricate and the audacious to the absurd, Adam Kucharski reveals the long and tangled history between betting and science and explains why gambling continues to generate insights into luck and decision making today. Covering exploits and ideas from across the globe, he meets the teams behind hedge funds that capitalize on inaccurate sports betting odds and explains how PhD-level pundits are using methods originally developed for the US nuclear program to predict sports results.
-
-
Nontechnical, wandering far beyond "gaming"
- By Philo on 04-02-16
By: Adam Kucharski
-
The Secret Lives of Numbers
- A Hidden History of Math’s Unsung Trailblazers
- By: Kate Kitagawa, Timothy Revell
- Narrated by: Daphne Kouma
- Length: 8 hrs and 11 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Mathematics shapes almost everything we do. But despite its reputation as the study of fundamental truths, the stories we have been told about it are wrong—warped like the sixteenth-century map that enlarged Europe at the expense of Africa, Asia and the Americas. In The Secret Lives of Numbers, renowned math historian Kate Kitagawa and journalist Timothy Revell make the case that the history of math is infinitely deeper, broader, and richer than the narrative we think we know.
By: Kate Kitagawa, and others
-
The Salmon Cannon and the Levitating Frog
- And Other Serious Discoveries of Silly Science
- By: Carly Anne York
- Narrated by: Eileen Stevens
- Length: 6 hrs
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Why would anyone research how elephants pee? Or study worms who tie themselves into a communal knot? Or quantify the squishability of a cockroach? It all sounds pointless, silly, or even disgusting. Maybe it is. But in The Salmon Cannon and the Levitating Frog, Carly Anne York shows how unappreciated, overlooked, and simply curiosity-driven science has led to breakthroughs big and small.
By: Carly Anne York
-
How Not to Invest
- The ideas, numbers, and behaviors that destroy wealth—and how to avoid them
- By: Barry Ritholtz
- Narrated by: Barry Ritholtz, Nathan Adams Stark - foreword
- Length: 13 hrs and 47 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
How Not To Invest shows you a few simple tools and models that will help you avoid the most common mistakes people make with their money. Learn these, and you are ahead of 98% of your peers. Make fewer errors, end up with more money. We all make mistakes. The goal with this book is to help you make fewer of them, and to have the mistakes you do make be less expensive.
-
-
As objective and unbiased as it will probably ever get
- By quadturbo on 03-27-25
By: Barry Ritholtz
-
The Rules of Contagion
- Why Things Spread - and Why They Stop
- By: Adam Kucharski
- Narrated by: Joe Jameson
- Length: 8 hrs and 47 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
These days, whenever anything spreads, whether it's a YouTube fad or a political rumor, we say it went viral. But how does virality actually work? In The Rules of Contagion, epidemiologist Adam Kucharski explores topics including gun violence, online manipulation, and, of course, outbreaks of disease to show how much we get wrong about contagion, and how astonishing the real science is. Why did the president retweet a Mussolini quote as his own? Why do financial bubbles take off so quickly?
-
-
Brilliant and so relavent
- By touristth on 12-15-20
By: Adam Kucharski
-
The Art of Uncertainty
- How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck
- By: David Spiegelhalter
- Narrated by: David Spiegelhalter
- Length: 10 hrs and 51 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Renowned statistician David Spiegelhalter shows how we can become better at dealing with what we don't know to make smarter choices in a world so full of puzzling variables. In lucid, lively prose, Spiegelhalter guides us through the principles of probability, illustrating how they can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to sports to climate change forecasts.
-
-
Terrific
- By Roger March on 04-01-25
-
Perfect Bet
- How Science and Math Are Taking the Luck out of Gambling
- By: Adam Kucharski
- Narrated by: Jonathan Yen
- Length: 8 hrs and 34 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
From the simple to the intricate and the audacious to the absurd, Adam Kucharski reveals the long and tangled history between betting and science and explains why gambling continues to generate insights into luck and decision making today. Covering exploits and ideas from across the globe, he meets the teams behind hedge funds that capitalize on inaccurate sports betting odds and explains how PhD-level pundits are using methods originally developed for the US nuclear program to predict sports results.
-
-
Nontechnical, wandering far beyond "gaming"
- By Philo on 04-02-16
By: Adam Kucharski
-
The Secret Lives of Numbers
- A Hidden History of Math’s Unsung Trailblazers
- By: Kate Kitagawa, Timothy Revell
- Narrated by: Daphne Kouma
- Length: 8 hrs and 11 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Mathematics shapes almost everything we do. But despite its reputation as the study of fundamental truths, the stories we have been told about it are wrong—warped like the sixteenth-century map that enlarged Europe at the expense of Africa, Asia and the Americas. In The Secret Lives of Numbers, renowned math historian Kate Kitagawa and journalist Timothy Revell make the case that the history of math is infinitely deeper, broader, and richer than the narrative we think we know.
By: Kate Kitagawa, and others
-
The Salmon Cannon and the Levitating Frog
- And Other Serious Discoveries of Silly Science
- By: Carly Anne York
- Narrated by: Eileen Stevens
- Length: 6 hrs
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Why would anyone research how elephants pee? Or study worms who tie themselves into a communal knot? Or quantify the squishability of a cockroach? It all sounds pointless, silly, or even disgusting. Maybe it is. But in The Salmon Cannon and the Levitating Frog, Carly Anne York shows how unappreciated, overlooked, and simply curiosity-driven science has led to breakthroughs big and small.
By: Carly Anne York
-
How Not to Invest
- The ideas, numbers, and behaviors that destroy wealth—and how to avoid them
- By: Barry Ritholtz
- Narrated by: Barry Ritholtz, Nathan Adams Stark - foreword
- Length: 13 hrs and 47 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
How Not To Invest shows you a few simple tools and models that will help you avoid the most common mistakes people make with their money. Learn these, and you are ahead of 98% of your peers. Make fewer errors, end up with more money. We all make mistakes. The goal with this book is to help you make fewer of them, and to have the mistakes you do make be less expensive.
-
-
As objective and unbiased as it will probably ever get
- By quadturbo on 03-27-25
By: Barry Ritholtz