In the latest episode of the OPEX Effect, Jack Forehand and Brent Kochuba dive deep into the dynamics shaping the current market regime, with a particular focus on the upcoming June OPEX, dealer positioning, volatility trends, and the surprising resilience of the S&P 500 amid geopolitical stress. They break down how options flows continue to dominate equity price action, why the market remains pinned despite negative news, and what might finally break the calm. With some of the largest options expirations in history on deck, this is a must-watch for anyone following volatility, hedging flows, and macro signals.

💡 Topics Covered:

Why volatility often contracts before OPEX and expands after

The significance of the June 2025 OPEX as potentially the largest ever

Dealer gamma, hedging flows, and what they signal about near-term volatility

Why implied vol is so low despite major geopolitical risk (e.g. Israel-Iran conflict)

The JP Morgan collar trade and its influence on the 5,900 level in the S&P

How zero-DTE options impact market stability and risk signaling

A potential regime shift: AI stocks, “taco trades,” and declining liquidity

What vol metrics like VIX, VVIX, and correlation are really saying

The hidden risk of overconfidence when markets ignore bad news

Breakdown of sector-specific volatility expectations (tech, energy, gold, Bitcoin)

In this episode of Excess Returns, Jack Forehand and Brent Kochuba from SpotGamma break down the forces at play beneath the surface of the market as we head into the May 2025 options expiration (OPEX). While the S&P 500 has rallied hard, a deeper look at positioning, liquidity, volatility, and sentiment reveals a market on a potentially fragile footing. From the continued explosion of zero DTE options to concerning signs from liquidity metrics, this discussion explores how short-term positioning could dictate major moves—and why the post-OPEX landscape may not be as stable as it appears. Plus, yes… we finally explain the "Saul Goodman" reference.

🔑 Topics Covered:

Why May’s OPEX setup is lopsided with call exposure—and why that’s dangerous

The eerie lack of downside hedging despite a big market rally

How zero DTE options and mean reversion flows are masking real volatility

The dangerous illusion of low realized vol vs. wide intraday ranges

Why poor liquidity is a potential precursor for the next volatility event

Analysis of SPX vs. SPY positioning—and which one signals more risk

The “Saul Goodman” signal: What it means and why it might be a contrarian tell

What the data says about a potential flip post-OPEX

June expiration on deck: Could it be the next volatility catalyst?

In this episode of The OPEX Effect, Jack and Brent dive deep into the market turmoil following "Liberation Day" and the implementation of new tariffs. With volatility spiking to levels not seen since the 2020 COVID crash, the hosts analyze how options markets are reacting, why liquidity has evaporated, and what investors should expect in this new higher-volatility regime. The conversation covers everything from VIX behavior to options positioning, and provides critical insights for navigating these turbulent markets.

Key Topics Covered:

The recent market volatility spike and why this represents a fundamental "regime change"

How options market makers are reacting to the tariff announcements and subsequent 90-day pause

Why liquidity has disappeared from markets and its impact on price movements

The significance of this month's options expiration and VIX expiration

Why zero-DTE options are NOT the cause of recent volatilityTechnical support and resistance levels based on options positioning

Gold's recent surge and signs it may be ready for consolidation

The impact of increased correlation across asset classesExpectations for upcoming earnings season and its importance in this environment