Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Positive Economic Indicators Contribute To Record Highs On Wall Street

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at fresh record highs, extending a strong streak for major indices. Gains were driven by robust U.S. retail sales, upbeat jobless claims, and strong earnings results, especially from tech and consumer firms. With the continued upward move, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 reached new record closing highs.

The continued strength on Wall Street followed the release of a batch of largely upbeat U.S. economic data, including a Commerce Department report showing that retail sales rebounded by much more than expected in June.

A report released by the Labour Department showed first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly dipped to a three-month low in the week ended July 12th.

The Labour Department also released another report showing that import prices in the U.S. inched up by less than expected in June.

The dollar headed for a second straight weekly gain against major peers, buoyed by some solid U.S. economic data that supported the view that the Federal Reserve can afford to wait a while longer before cutting interest rates again.

Netflix topped second-quarter earnings expectations, beating on both the top and bottom lines and raising its full-year revenue guidance as the streamer continues to stand out amid a tech-driven market.

Yesterday, on the weekly expiry session, profit booking set in post a higher opening and continued throughout the day. Nifty finally ended the session with a loss of 111 points or 0.40%, to close at 25111. Nifty failed to sustain 20 DEMA resistance. Nifty is still passing through a choppy trend, where immediate support is seen at 25000; below this level, long bets should be called off. On the higher side, 25250 could act as short-term resistance. The broader market also experienced profit booking, mirroring the benchmark indices.

Indian markets are poised for a muted opening, as sentiment among banking stocks is expected to be especially cautious in response to Axis Bank’s latest financial results, which fell short of market expectations. Notably, Axis Bank's GDR tumbled 4.8% to $ 64.30 on Thursday, following a deterioration in the bank’s asset quality during the June quarter.

Any progress toward finalising trade agreements with the U.S. in the coming days is likely to reduce uncertainty and energise the bulls.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Volatility on Fed Chair Drama

U.S. markets advanced modestly as a mix of strong bank earnings and cooler inflation readings helped calm investor concerns about ongoing trade tariff tensions.

Stocks experienced notable volatility mid-session after reports that President Trump was preparing to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Stocks quickly rebounded when Trump clarified he was 'not planning' such a move, calming markets and easing volatility.

The S&P 500 rose 0.32%, while the Nasdaq climbed 0.10%, both closing at or near new highs. The Dow outperformed, up 0.53%, on strength in financials and healthcare.

Producer Price Index (PPI) data for June came in cooler than expected, aiding relief rallies. The softer inflation print reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may consider rate cuts later this year, despite the impact of tariff-related price increases.

The largest U.S. banks—JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo—delivered strong second-quarter profits, outpacing analyst forecasts.

Proposed new tariffs from the White House created uncertainty, especially for multinational companies. However, a weaker dollar offered some earnings relief for firms with significant foreign sales.

Despite the Nasdaq’s fresh high, breadth was poor, and several tech leaders saw profit-taking. Investors favoured defensive and cyclical names amid ongoing volatility sparked by geopolitics and central bank policy uncertainty.

Back home, the Nifty 50 experienced an early dip, touching intraday lows at 25,121 yesterday. However, buying emerged at lower levels, initiating a smart recovery post-11 AM, which propelled the index to close modestly in the green, gaining 16 points or 0.06% to settle at 25,212. Among the sectoral indices, PSU Banks, Media, and IT ended as major gainers, while the Metal, Healthcare, and Pharma sectors ended in the red.

The crucial 50-day DMA support at 25000 for the Nifty remains intact. As long as this important level of 25000 holds, bulls are likely to maintain their dominance. On the upside, 25331 could offer short-term resistance in Nifty.

Indian markets are poised to open higher on the back of positive global cues. Weekly derivative expiry at the NSE will drive today's market activity after the opening.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary

Nvidia leads the market higher.

Nvidia helped fuel a tech rally that saw the AI darling jump by 1.8 per cent and become the first public company to reach a market capitalisation of $4 trillion.

Equity markets closed higher on Wednesday, following President Trump's announcement of new tariffs on seven countries. To date, President Trump has announced new tariffs on 21 countries this week, with tariff rates ranging from 20% to 40%. Trump was particularly harsh on Brazil, imposing a 50% duty on goods from Brazil.

The strength on Wall Street may partly reflect optimism about a potential trade agreement between the U.S. and the European Union. A news report indicated EU negotiators are closing in on a trade deal with the U.S. that would cement higher tariffs than those granted to the U.K.

Asian stocks rose slightly on Thursday, buoyed by optimism following Nvidia's brief surge to a world-record $4 trillion valuation, as investors largely shrugged off U.S. President Donald Trump's latest tariff announcements.

U.S. copper futures widened their premium to the London benchmark overnight as U.S. President Donald Trump ramped up his global tariff assault on Wednesday, announcing a new 50% tariff on U.S. copper imports, which will take effect on August 1.

The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting, which revealed most participants generally agree the central bank is well-positioned to wait for more clarity on the outlook for inflation and the economy before adjusting interest rates.

The Fed's "wait and see" approach comes as participants said economic growth and the labour market remain solid and described monetary policy as moderately or modestly restrictive.

Back home, Nifty fell sharply in the last hour of trade yesterday, signalling profit booking. The session finally settled with a loss of 46 points (0.18%), closing at 25,476.

An attempt by the Nifty to surpass the previous session’s high failed, with the index turning southward after making a double top at 25,548. However, the Nifty managed to hold its level above the previous session’s low, indicating an ongoing consolidation within its primary uptrend. Support and resistance levels for the Nifty remain at 25,331 and 25,670, respectively. A decisive breakout from this range would give a directional view in the index.

Any progress in finalising trade agreements over the coming weeks and months should reduce uncertainty, while any flexibility in lowering tariffs should help contain inflation and growth concerns.

Indian markets are poised to open subdued, but are likely to witness higher volatility as the session progresses to negotiate weekly derivatives expiry and position ahead of a slew of quarterly results, starting with Tata Elxsi and TCS.