Critical Hurricane Forecast and Sea Ice Monitoring Tool Abruptly Terminated

Date: June 26, 2025

• Abrupt Termination: The DoD will permanently terminate the processing and transmission of microwave data from its three weather satellites by no later than June 30, 2025. This decision was formalized on June 25, 2025, and communicated to users, including NOAA and the National Hurricane Center, on June 24 and 25, 2025, respectively.
• Severe Impact on Hurricane Forecasts: The discontinuation of SSMIS data will "severely impede and degrade hurricane forecasts for this season and beyond," affecting millions of Americans in hurricane-prone regions. This data is critical for understanding storm structure, estimating intensity, and accurately positioning storm centers, particularly when direct observations are scarce.
• Increased Risk of "Sunrise Surprise": Without SSMIS microwave data, forecasters face an "increased risk of a ‘sunrise surprise,’ the realization from first-light images that a system had become much better organized overnight, but it wasn’t recognized because structural details are so hard to discern from [infrared satellite]."
• Impact on Sea Ice Products: The SSMIS data is also essential for several sea ice products, including the "Near-Real-Time NOAA/NSIDC Climate Data Record of Passive Microwave Sea Ice Concentration" and the "Sea Ice Index." These products will cease processing after June 30, 2025, leading to a "gap in data availability."
• Rationale Unclear, Security Concerns Suspected: While the exact rationale for the abrupt termination is "not immediately clear," the decision "appears to have stemmed from Department of Defense security concerns."
• Alternative Data Sources Being Explored/Recommended (with caveats):AMSR2: For sea ice products, the AMSR2 instrument is recommended as an alternative, noting it has "better resolution than SSMIS and therefore provides more detailed information." However, AMSR2 data are "prototype and not yet fully intercalibrated with older data," which means "users will notice differences in sea ice extents."
• WSF-M: The DoD successfully launched a follow-on weather satellite, Weather System Follow-on Microwave (WSF-M), in April 2024. However, data from WSF-M is "not currently available to forecasters and it’s not clear if or when data access will be permitted."
• SSMIS Data Proven Critical for Model Simulation: A 2003 study on Hurricane Danny demonstrated that assimilating SSM/I (predecessor to SSMIS) data significantly improved hurricane simulations by "increas[ing] the moisture content over most of the Gulf of Mexico, but also strengthen[ing] the low-level cyclonic circulation, giving a better convergence field and reduced model spin-up time."

The Empathizing-Systemizing (E-S) Theory and its Relevance

The E-S theory is a central framework discussed in both sources, hypothesizing that individuals possess varying degrees of "empathizing" and "systemizing" cognitive styles.

• Systemizing: Defined as "(1) the drive to create and analyze psychological sets of logical rules, or “systems,” related to and constructed around things that occur in the world, and (2) the ability to intuit how systems work in the physical world." (Bolton et al., 2018). It involves identifying "lawful regularities in physical and other systems" and understanding cause-and-effect relationships ("if I do X, A changes to B. If Z occurs, P changes to Q"). There are six main types of systems: abstract, mechanical, natural, collectible, motoric, and social.
• Autism Spectrum Conditions (ASC): Individuals with ASC are hypothesized to be "inherently stronger at “systemizing” than they are empathizing" (Bolton et al., 2018). This manifests as a natural drive to "seek truth—a concept defined here as 'precise, reliable, consistent, or lawful patterns or structure in [some kind of] data' through psychological system-building." (Bolton et al., 2018). The concept of "hyper-systemizing" attempts to explain repetitive behaviors and a disinterest in socializing often observed in ASC, as "the social world, driven by emotions, is far less lawful than domains that include spinning objects or record keeping." (Bolton et al., 2018).

II. Psychological Profile of Meteorologists

The Bolton et al. (2018) study provides the first examination of meteorologists' personality and mental health relative to other physical scientists (engineers and physicists).

• Empathizing and Systemizing: Meteorologists in the study sample were found to be "higher in empathizing and systemizing" compared to engineers and physicists. While they were "the strongest systemizers" when compared to the combined group, they also showed the "highest group tendency for empathic expression." (Bolton et al., 2018). This suggests a unique "balancing of the E-S cognitive profiles within meteorologists," which is sensible given the profession's "orientation toward public service." (Bolton et al., 2018).
• Autistic Traits: Engineers and physicists reported "significantly higher autistic trait amounts" than meteorologists. Meteorologists scored comparably on the Autism Spectrum Quotient (AQ) to other STEM groups in previous research, but were lower than the engineers and physicists in this specific sample.

III. Weather Salience in Autism Spectrum Conditions

Bolton et al. (2020) introduce and explore the concept of "weather salience" in autistic individuals.

• Definition of Weather Salience: "the degree to which individuals attribute psychological value or importance to the weather and the extent to which they are attuned to their atmospheric environments" (Stewart 2009, quoted in Bolton et al., 2020).
• Key Findings:Increased Weather Salience in Autism: Initial findings suggest that "enhanced weather salience exists among autistic individuals relative to those without the condition" (Bolton et al., 2020). While statistically non-significant in most studies, autistic participants consistently showed higher weather salience scores.

Meteorology Matters discusses a study indicating that human influence on global climate, specifically stratospheric cooling, could have been detected as early as 1885, preceding the widespread use of automobiles. Researchers conducted an experiment using modern climate models and hypothetical 1860 measurement capabilities to identify this early "human fingerprint" on atmospheric temperatures. The study highlights that stratospheric cooling is a strong indicator due to its clear response to CO2 increases and minimal natural variability, making detection easier than with surface temperatures. The authors of the study emphasize the importance of continued observation of the upper atmosphere for monitoring climate change, especially given current budget cuts impacting climate research.