07-14-2025 "Both Sides Now" Bonds Don't Know Moves

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Bonds looked at moves from Both Sides Now from up and down, and still somehow, it's move-illusions, Bonds recall. They really don't know moves at all.

China's deflation supports lower rates. Its PPI has been down year-over-year for 33 straight months.

During the new Trump administration, the 10-year rate has risen to 4.80%, fallen to 4.0, and is currently at 4.4. Manage rate risk by adjusting trades to reflect life changes.

Rates really don't know life at all.

These views are mine. Adjust to life at TMSpotlight.com.

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Song: Both Sides Now (1967) Joni Mitchell wrote it, and Judy Collins recorded it first.

This podcast segment covers FHFA’s approval of VantageScore 4.0 and explores the operational and policy hurdles lenders must overcome before it can be widely adopted.

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Adam DeSanctis, VP of Communication at Mortgage Bankers Association

As a strategic public affairs and communications executive with nearly two decades of experience, Adam has deep expertise in strategy, management, and media relations. He is widely considered to be an expert in a variety of communications, including advocacy, brand, executive, crisis, grassroots, and social media. In his career, he has been the MBA spokesperson on a wide variety of real estate research and advocacy-related issues, promoted MBA research and advocacy efforts to financial, political, and trade industry media and on MBA's social media channels, and secured media opportunities for MBA leadership on key real estate trends and issues, generated media coverage for MBA's research and data on mortgage applications, credit availability, homebuilder applications, mortgage forbearance/delinquencies, commercial real estate originations, and forecasts, and other industry analysis, developed key strategic initiatives for MBA's organizational public affairs plan, media relations and member communications support for mPower, MBA's Opens Doors Foundation and MBA's Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion programs.

In this episode of Lykken on Lending, we sit down with Pavan Agarwal, CEO of Angel AI, for a high-impact conversation on how artificial intelligence and blockchain are not just disrupting—but redefining—the mortgage industry. Broadcasting from Washington, D.C., Pavan shares insights from his recent visit to Capitol Hill, where he helped shape national conversations around crypto regulation and responsible AI innovation. From the transparent launch of the Angel AI token to real-world housing solutions powered by blockchain, this episode explores how tech, policy, and purpose are converging to transform the future of homeownership in America.

The Lykken on Lending Weekly Mortgage Update delivers expert commentary and timely insights from across the mortgage industry. Each episode features a curated lineup of respected thought leaders and analysts:

• Adam DeSanctis with the MBA Mortgage Minute, providing key updates from the Mortgage Bankers Association.
• Les Parker’s TMSpotlight offers a macroeconomic perspective with his signature musical parodies.
• Matt Graham of MBS Live, breaking down market activity and interest rate movements.
• David Kittle, CEO of The Mortgage Collaborative, sharing insights on mortgage originations and industry trends.
• Alice Alvey of Union Home Mortgage, delivering essential regulatory and legislative updates.
• Allen Pollack, with the Tech Report, spotlighting emerging technologies impacting mortgage operations.
• Bill Corbet, presenting Bill's Bullet Commentary with focused insights on loan servicing and capital markets.
• Marc Helm, offering Marc’s Rant, an unfiltered take on operational and agency-related developments.

Together, this expert panel brings clarity, relevance, and a touch of personality to the ever-evolving mortgage landscape.

As the mortgage industry grapples with rising delinquencies, affordability challenges, and conflicting economic signals, this week’s Lykken on Lending roundtable digs deep into the crosscurrents shaping the market. From the fallout of a $5 trillion tax bill to the Fed’s increasingly scrutinized stance on rate cuts, our experts explore how political pressure, global deflation from China, and shifting investor sentiment are impacting rates, housing demand, and credit risk. With FHA delinquencies nearing 12%, warehouse liquidity concerns bubbling up, and the cost to own now nearly double the cost to rent, the conversation turns toward what it will take to restore balance — and whether policymakers are equipped to lead the way.

This podcast segment explains how the recent federal tax bill halves CFPB’s funding and explores how loosening FHA guidelines on manufactured housing could be a strategic solution to today’s affordability crisis.

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Alice Alvey, Master CMB

Vice President Partner Education and Training at Union Home Mortgage

She handles development of their World Class Training program designed to support UHM partners and organizational effectiveness.

Prior to UHM, Alice served as Senior Vice President at Indecomm leading the Indecomm-Mortgage U division, Internal QA and Compliance and SaaS technologies. Indecomm acquired Mortgage U in 2013, where Alice was President/Co-founder, providing training and consulting since 1996. Prior to MU she served as SVP of Operations at a national bank overseeing operations for wholesale, retail and correspondent from underwriting through servicing, and compliance.

She has been in the trenches of mortgage lending operations from application through servicing for over 30 years. Her authoring work in training content, policies and procedures and the FHA/VA Practical guides illustrates her ability to bridge regulatory requirements with day-to-day operations.

Alice has been a weekly contributor to the Lykken on Lending show since its beginning in April 2009 and has made her weekly contributions to 450+ episodes!

This podcast segment breaks down how a stronger-than-expected jobs report, combined with conflicting labor market signals, disrupted a bond rally and reshaped expectations for Fed rate cuts heading into July CPI data.

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Matt began as an originator in 2002. He fell in love with the idea of following MBS in real-time but felt that existing products were only scratching the surface. Thus was born MBS Live in 2007, the first-of-its-kind platform with real-time market data/analysis, and live chat with analysts, traders, and originators around the country. He is currently the Founder and CEO of MBSLive!

He's been covering bond/mortgage markets, writing commentary, alerts, and chatting with the live community every business hour of every business day ever since.

Matt also serves as the Chief of Operations for mortgagenewsdaily.com, where he is one of the industry's most respected mortgage rate experts, frequently quoted in the media. Mortgage News Daily's rate index is used as the definitive resource on day-to-day mortgage rate averages.

He lives in the Pacific Northwest with his wife and son, where he enjoys skiing, fishing, coaching youth sports, playing the guitar, and more DIY projects/hobbies than he'd care to admit.

7-07-2025 "China Grove" Woes Support Yields

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Talkin’ ‘bout China Woe

China woes support US mortgage rates falling to the low 6s. Its consumption remains historically low at 39% of GDP. Yet, it wants its economic model driven by domestic demand, supported by fiscal stimulus.

The transition produces deflation, which gets exported to the US. So, despite the One Big Beautiful Bill, content Oil and deteriorating fundamental news feed lower yields.

The people of DC are strange, and they’re proud of what they've made.

These views are mine.

Well, we’re talkin’ China Woe.

Figure out woes at TMSpotlight.com

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Song: China Grove (1973) Doobie Brothers