Derek Moore goes through how markets have bottomed (maybe?) and are now up 10% since then. All the while investment banks have now started moving their 2025 year end targets down. The bear case on corporate net profit margins (and bull case). Plus, how max bearishness against US equities at market lows may have been a contrarian signal. With more earnings this week, Apple’s implied volatility is forecasting what as an expected 1 standard deviation move. Keeping perspective on the markets as the media talks about ends of eras and more.

Apple earnings implied volatility

What is the implied volatility expected earnings move for Apple

FMS manager survey shows fund managers were max bearish near recent bottom

Distance off the low is now +10% after being down -18.90%

All that said, the S&P is down -10% off the all-time high

Investment banks start downgrading their year end S&P 500 Index targets

Bear case for housing due to high mortgage rates

Earnings have been good so far but what about the future?

Comparing mortgage payments at low vs 7% rates

Sentiment and VIX readings near contrarian lows like prior periods

Container shipping container rates are down and that is not inflationary

Container shipping volume and capacity are all down

Mentioned in this Episode

Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com