In the latest Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss recent Middle East tensions involving the U.S. and Iran, the surprisingly minimal market reaction despite high geopolitical stakes, and insights into historical parallels and fiscal spending impacts on stock markets. They also cover recent criticisms of Fed Chair Jerome Powell by President Trump and debate the Fed's current policy paralysis amid uncertainty about inflation, unemployment, and economic growth.

Key Takeaways

• Middle East Tensions and Market Response:
  
  • The U.S. recently attacked suspected nuclear sites in Iran, and despite immediate fears, the S&P 500 rallied over 1%, and oil prices sharply reversed after an initial spike—down nearly 14% in one day, one of the largest reversals in history.
• Geopolitical Patterns and Historical Context:
  
  • The hosts point out historical examples, such as World War I and the Iraq War, where war-driven fiscal spending and deficit growth actually boosted stock markets significantly.
• Economic and Fiscal Implications of Conflict:
  
  • Wars often lead to increased defense and deficit spending, which, despite negative human impacts, can boost corporate profits and stock markets, as seen historically (e.g., Iraq War 2003).
• President Trump's Criticism of Jerome Powell and Fed Policy:
  
  • President Trump publicly criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting interest rates, calling Powell a "numbskull" and suggesting lower rates would save trillions for the U.S.
• Fed's Policy Paralysis Amid Uncertainty:
  
  • The Fed faces conflicting economic signals: higher projected inflation (due partly to tariffs), rising unemployment, and slowing growth, resulting in policy paralysis. Sonu criticized Powell’s comments claiming labor market strength, pointing to rising unemployment claims and slowing payrolls as clear signs of labor market weakness.
• Odds of Fed Rate Cuts Increasing:
  
  • Market-implied probabilities show a significant rise in expectations for a rate cut by September 2025, largely driven by recent sharp declines in oil prices.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

#FactsVsFeelings #MiddleEastTensions #StockMarketReaction #IranConflict #FiscalSpending #JeromePowell #FedPolicy #TrumpVsPowell #InterestRates #EconomicUncertainty #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese

In the latest Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, are joined by financial journalist and TKer founder and editor Sam Ro. Together, they cover Sam’s background, his curated newsletter approach, emerging data-quality issues at the BLS, and why human judgment still matters in the age of AI.

Key Takeaways

• What Sam Ro Actually Does All Day
  Sam is the founder and editor of TKer (pronounced ticker), a daily financial newsletter. He previously led markets coverage at Business Insider and was managing editor at Yahoo Finance. His role now is synthesizing market data and macro trends into clear, actionable insights for readers — many of whom are financial advisors.
• The Market Goes Up—Until It Doesn’t
  Sam chose the slogan “The stock market usually goes up” for his newsletter because, well, the market usually goes up. But, as Sam cautions, it’s important for investors to be prepared for downturns, or they can get badly dinged in the short term.
• Parsing the Data
  The group discusses a recent announcement from the Bureau of Labor Statistics about collecting less data than before, and how budget cuts and staffing issues at the bureau could lead to less accurate data collection in economic surveys like CPI and employment reports.
• More Than Just Statistics
  Sam, who majored in religion in college, discusses the notion that data only goes so far in predicting the markets. Models can’t predict everything, and sometimes you just need to embrace uncertainty and have a bit of faith that the markets will sort themselves out over time.
• AI Can’t Replace Human Judgment
  While AI chatbots now summarize reports faster—and sometimes more eloquently—than humans, Sam stresses that interpreting nuance and making editorial decisions remain human domains.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Connect with Sam:

· https://www.tker.co/

· X: @SamRo

· LinkedIn: sammyro

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

#FactsVsFeelings #SamRo #TickerNewsletter #MarketFlows #StockMarket #InvestorDiscipline #FinancialMedia #Macroeconomics #FinancialPlanning #MarketInsights #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese

In the latest Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, unpack the political feud between Donald Trump and Elon Musk — and what it signals for markets, sentiment, and investor behavior.

But this episode covers more than just political drama: Ryan and Sonu break down what recent data says about inflation, the labor market, and Federal Reserve policy, while stressing the importance of not overreacting to headlines.

Key Takeaways

• Theater Meets Market Implications
  The Trump-Musk spat included insults, accusations, and the threat of government contract cancellations. Ryan and Sonu dig into how this narrative dominated headlines and its potential impact on investor sentiment.
• Markets Rally Despite the Drama
  Despite political noise, equity markets have remained resilient. The S&P 500 has posted strong returns since April lows, reflecting underlying market strength.
• Economic Data Is Mixed, Not Recessionary
  While headlines emphasize slowing job growth and sticky inflation, Ryan and Sonu stress that the broader picture doesn’t scream recession. Job openings remain high, unemployment is low, and wages continue to rise.
• Fed Remains Cautious
  While job growth is slowing and inflation still sticky, the Fed is likely to keep interest rates paused for the foreseeable future—though a drop in inflation could trigger a reexamination.
• Watch Market Breadth and Participation
  Rather than obsess over megacap tech stocks, the hosts urge listeners to track participation across sectors and in global markets. Broader market strength is a bullish sign that shouldn't be ignored.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

#FactsVsFeelings #LaborMarket #JobsReport #FederalReserve #InterestRates #EconomicUpdate #FinancialPlanning #WageGrowth #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #StockMarket #MacroTrends