Is this the payback? The rate cuts aren't working and that can only mean more of them. The best current examples are to north and south of the US where rolling over has taken on a new sense of urgency, especially since both are, at the margins, a proxy for American demand.

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

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It was supposed to be one single out-of-control Wall Street bank. When authorities were forced to look into the matter, what they uncovered was a shocking. Not one but EVERYONE. Yet, after uncovering what was going on, the full astonishing scale, they never figured out WHY. And that was the whole thing, what the scandal said about a world that had already drastically changed.

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Treasury Joint Report on the Government Securities Market (Jan 1992)
https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/276/joint-report-on-the-government-securities-Market-1992.pdf

LA Times Taming the Bond Buccaneers at Salomon Brothers : How Warren Buffet and friends swept up after the Salomon scandal, possible saving the firm from federal regulators furious after a decade of skuldggery [sic] on Wall Street.
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1992-02-16-tm-4654-story.html

SEC Chronology of Salomon Scandal
https://www.sechistorical.org/collection/papers/1990/1991_1016_ChronologySalomonT.pdf

Jay Powell Treasury Markets and the TMPG (Oct 2017)
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20171005a.htm

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Like last month, this June payroll report was taken one way in the mainstream while the details went entirely in the other direction. Headline was a beat and the unemployment rate stalled. Yet, the former was ironically a product of government jobs while the latter slid a tiny amount for ALL THE WRONG REASONS.

Big moves in yields, especially at the front. While twos are making a move on their own, it's the very front at the first-in-line bills that draws our attention. Steepening has been given a boost by some ugly recent data from right where it counts - incomes and spending.

Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre

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AI shouldn't provoke fear and anxiety, it should raise expectations for regular 4-day workweek with 3-day weekends. Artificial Intelligence represents a potential major leap in labor productivity. The end result isn't a desolate hellscape which leaves everyone unemployed, it's instead something economics (small "e") is very familiar with.

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It never was entirely tariff distortions. Everyone had tried to dismiss Q1 as an anomaly. Later revisions have instead shown there is indeed a shift happening among US consumers. Even Winnebago agrees and RVs are the canary for the canary in the macro coalmine. Beveridge is getting closer.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg US GDP Revised Lower as Consumers Slash Services Spending
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-26/us-gdp-revised-lower-as-consumers-slash-recreation-spending

Winnebago
https://winnebago.gcs-web.com/static-files/e0acc2ce-9a34-456d-8f68-a8235351493a

WSJ Winnebago Cuts Guidance as Soft Demand Hurts RV Retail Sales
https://www.wsj.com/business/earnings/winnebago-cuts-revenue-profit-outlook-after-declines-0b3a9053

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