David Farrar: Curia Market Research Owner on how political polls work
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David Farrar: Curia Market Research Owner on how political polls work
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How is it that two recent polls had such starkly different outcomes?
The latest RNZ Reid Research poll —out this morning— has the right bloc on 46.4, behind the left bloc on 50.3.
But the latest 1 News Verian poll —released last night— has the right bloc on 50-percent, well ahead of the left bloc on 45.
Curia Market Research Owner David Farrar told Kerre Woodham that when you poll 1000 people, they say there’s a 3% margin of error – so if a party is sitting at 50%, in reality they’re somewhere between 47% and 53%.
His advice for conflicting polls is to average them out, as that will generally give you a pretty good idea.
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