Israel strikes Iran and, in particular, the Iranian military leadership and nuclear scientists. The Israeli government has stated that the attacks will continue until regime change is achieved.

Oil prices have spiked, but will they move higher?

The article in the Houston Chronicle seems to be saying that US oil production has peaked and will decline soon. Meanwhile, Canadian insiders have been buying stock in their companies at a five-year high. There are many reasons insiders sell stock. There is only one reason they buy it. They think it is going up.

Energy, and oil in particular, is my highest conviction idea currently. The oil curve is backwardated, the market is tight, and energy stocks are absurdly cheap. US producers have learned from the excesses of their shale boom: they are lean, profitable, and shareholder-friendly. Oil is the only commodity to price in a 2025 recession, but global growth could surprise to the upside.

Last week, the Trump administration signed executive orders directing the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to streamline its regulatory process, speed up the approval of new nuclear plants, and stimulate the development of new nuclear power in the US.

The Trump administration is trying to remedy what it sees as unsustainable trade and monetary imbalances, which it views as undermining the US economy.

The question is, can they do it before the economic pain undermines their political support and mandate?

Gold is overvalued currently in the short term. Gold is on the cover of Barron's this week. Conversely, oil is still undervalued in my opinion. Emerging markets are also undervalued relative to the US equity markets.

Oil sentiment is thoroughly washed out, and everyone is expecting economic weakness. I see declining US production and barring an economic dislocation like 2000, 2008, or 2020, oil is likely to surprise to the upside.

The gold stock ETF (GDX) has reached recent highs as the gold price makes a new all-time high. The junior gold stock ETF (GDXJ) is flirting with a breakout. A gold stock bull market now appears to be in progress.