
2025 7-09 Matters of Democracy Shadow Docket, Farm Help, Deficits,
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The Supreme Court's grant of a stay application in the RIF case highlights its "increased reliance on the shadow docket to essentially decide cases without knowing all the facts, and without having the case fully briefed." Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson dissented, pointing out the Court's decision to intervene without fully understanding the facts, and that the district court is "in the best position to evaluate the evidence and decide what the facts are."
"Several key sectors of the economy, like agriculture, rely on cheap, undocumented labor to keep things running." Without these laborers, "the meat and the milk and the crops either wouldn't make it to market, or they'd be vastly more expensive." Worker Shortages: "Workers are now failing to show up for their shifts on farms, at dairies, at meatpacking plants, etc.," due to fear of immigration enforcement, leading to "product ends up permanently lost." Secretary Rollins' "Fantasyland" Plan: Secretary of Agriculture Rollins' proposed solution – for Medicaid recipients to fill agricultural jobs – is widely criticized as unrealistic due to low wages, arduous work, and the physical limitations of many Medicaid recipients. The true intent of the BBB, according to the source, was to "kick people out of the system entirely, so as to free up money for tax cuts."
The current trajectory of U.S. debt and deficits is unsustainable without significant spending cuts. The national debt historically remained below 45% of GDP for the first 150 years of U.S. history (1790-1940), even through major conflicts. World War II saw a significant spike to 112% before receding to 45% by 1960. Current Debt Levels: The U.S. now faces a "staggering $40 trillion in outstanding debt." The annual rate of increase in debt is comparable to what was once considered a significant deficit (1.5-2% of GDP).
"Demand-driven core PCE inflation remains elevated, with no signs of rapid disinflation. Year-over-year metrics show persistent upward pressure." One-year rent price expectations are also high, contributing to inflationary stickiness. CPI Projections
The Fed's COVID-era policies have "driven home prices higher." Mortgage volumes are down 20-25% year-over-year, and limited refinancing options due to yield curve changes mean many homeowners are "locked in" to their current rates. Commercial Real Estate: Deflationary
Gold as an Inflation Hedge