
The Art of Uncertainty
How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck
No se pudo agregar al carrito
Add to Cart failed.
Error al Agregar a Lista de Deseos.
Error al eliminar de la lista de deseos.
Error al añadir a tu biblioteca
Error al seguir el podcast
Error al dejar de seguir el podcast

Compra ahora por $20.33
No default payment method selected.
We are sorry. We are not allowed to sell this product with the selected payment method
-
Narrado por:
-
David Spiegelhalter
Acerca de esta escucha
Brought to you by Penguin.
From the UK’s ‘statistical national treasure’, a clever and data-driven guide to how we can live with risk and uncertainty
We live in a world where uncertainty is inevitable. How should we deal with what we don’t know? And what role do chance, luck and coincidence play in our lives?
David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data in order to understand risks and assess the chances of what might happen in the future. In The Art of Uncertainty, he gives readers a window onto how we can all do this better.
In engaging, crystal-clear prose, he takes us through the principles of probability, showing how it can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to pandemics and climate change forecasts, and explores how we can update our beliefs about the future in the face of constantly changing experience. Along the way, he explains why roughly 40% of football results come down to luck rather than talent, how the National Risk Register assesses near-term risks to the United Kingdom, and why we can be so confident that two properly shuffled packs of cards have never, ever been in the exact same order.
Drawing on a wide range of captivating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also having the humility to admit what we do not know.
‘Probably the UK’s greatest living statistician’ Telegraph
Los oyentes también disfrutaron...
-
Tiny Experiments
- How to Live Freely in a Goal-Obsessed World
- De: Anne-Laure Le Cunff
- Narrado por: Anne-Laure Le Cunff
- Duración: 6 h y 25 m
- Versión completa
-
General
-
Narración:
-
Historia
Life isn’t linear, and yet we try to mold it around linear goals: four-year college degrees, ten-year career plans, thirty-year mortgages. What if instead we approached life as a giant playground for experimentation? Based on ancestral philosophy and the latest scientific research, Tiny Experiments provides a desperately needed reframing: Uncertainty can be a state of expanded possibility and a space for metamorphosis. Neuroscientist and entrepreneur Anne-Laure Le Cunff reveals that all you need is an experimental mindset to turn challenges into self-discovery and doubt into opportunity.
-
-
Very basic info, challenging narration
- De Igor en 05-05-25
-
On Writing Well: Audio Collection
- De: William Zinsser
- Narrado por: William Zinsser
- Duración: 2 h y 23 m
- Versión resumida
-
General
-
Narración:
-
Historia
This expanded audio collection presents William Zinsser's On Writing Well, the classic teaching book that has sold more than 1 million copies, together with a new 90-minute section that tells you how to write a memoir.
-
-
This is not the described book.
- De Brianna en 11-06-13
De: William Zinsser
-
The Almanack of Naval Ravikant
- A Guide to Wealth and Happiness
- De: Eric Jorgenson, Tim Ferriss
- Narrado por: Vikas Adam
- Duración: 4 h y 53 m
- Versión completa
-
General
-
Narración:
-
Historia
Naval Ravikant is an entrepreneur, philosopher, and investor who has captivated the world with his principles for building wealth and creating long-term happiness. The Almanack of Naval Ravikant is a collection of Naval’s wisdom and experience from the last 10 years, shared as a curation of his most insightful interviews and poignant reflections. This isn’t a how-to book, or a step-by-step gimmick. Instead, through Naval’s own words, you will learn how to walk your own unique path toward a happier, wealthier life.
-
-
Narrator sucks
- De Dagarcia718 en 03-25-21
De: Eric Jorgenson, y otros
-
Waste Land
- A World in Permanent Crisis
- De: Robert D. Kaplan
- Narrado por: Robert Petkoff
- Duración: 6 h y 42 m
- Versión completa
-
General
-
Narración:
-
Historia
We are entering a new era of global cataclysm in which the world faces a deadly mix of war, climate change, great power rivalry, rapid technological advancement, the end of both monarchy and empire, and countless other dangers. In Waste Land, Robert D. Kaplan, geopolitical expert and author of more than twenty books on world affairs, incisively explains how we got here and where we are going.
-
-
Climate / Population Alarmism in a Mask
- De ElovesK en 02-07-25
De: Robert D. Kaplan
-
How Economics Explains the World
- A Short History of Humanity
- De: Andrew Leigh
- Narrado por: Stephen Graybill
- Duración: 5 h y 19 m
- Versión completa
-
General
-
Narración:
-
Historia
This small book indeed tells a big story. It is the story of capitalism–of how our market system developed. It is the story of the discipline of economics, and some of the key figures who formed it. And it is the story of how economic forces have shaped world history. Why didn’t Africa colonize Europe instead of the other way around? What happened when countries erected trade and immigration barriers in the 1930s? Why did the Allies win World War II? You’ll find answers to these questions and more in How Economics Explains the World.
-
-
Horrible, It is like Ray Dalio’s gibberish
- De Robert Elliott en 05-02-25
De: Andrew Leigh
-
Never Enough
- From Barista to Billionaire
- De: Andrew Wilkinson
- Narrado por: Luke Daniels
- Duración: 8 h y 45 m
- Versión completa
-
General
-
Narración:
-
Historia
Once a barista in a small cafe making $6.50 an hour, Andrew Wilkinson built a business valued at over a billion dollars by the time he was 36—and yet, his path to success was anything but a straight line. In Never Enough, Wilkinson pulls back the curtain on the lives of the ultra-rich, sharing insights into building a successful business that has been called a “Berkshire Hathaway, but for internet companies,” and a surprising first-person account of what it's actually like to become a billionaire.
-
-
Paying it forward and backward
- De Robert ONeill en 07-28-24
De: Andrew Wilkinson
-
Tiny Experiments
- How to Live Freely in a Goal-Obsessed World
- De: Anne-Laure Le Cunff
- Narrado por: Anne-Laure Le Cunff
- Duración: 6 h y 25 m
- Versión completa
-
General
-
Narración:
-
Historia
Life isn’t linear, and yet we try to mold it around linear goals: four-year college degrees, ten-year career plans, thirty-year mortgages. What if instead we approached life as a giant playground for experimentation? Based on ancestral philosophy and the latest scientific research, Tiny Experiments provides a desperately needed reframing: Uncertainty can be a state of expanded possibility and a space for metamorphosis. Neuroscientist and entrepreneur Anne-Laure Le Cunff reveals that all you need is an experimental mindset to turn challenges into self-discovery and doubt into opportunity.
-
-
Very basic info, challenging narration
- De Igor en 05-05-25
-
On Writing Well: Audio Collection
- De: William Zinsser
- Narrado por: William Zinsser
- Duración: 2 h y 23 m
- Versión resumida
-
General
-
Narración:
-
Historia
This expanded audio collection presents William Zinsser's On Writing Well, the classic teaching book that has sold more than 1 million copies, together with a new 90-minute section that tells you how to write a memoir.
-
-
This is not the described book.
- De Brianna en 11-06-13
De: William Zinsser
-
The Almanack of Naval Ravikant
- A Guide to Wealth and Happiness
- De: Eric Jorgenson, Tim Ferriss
- Narrado por: Vikas Adam
- Duración: 4 h y 53 m
- Versión completa
-
General
-
Narración:
-
Historia
Naval Ravikant is an entrepreneur, philosopher, and investor who has captivated the world with his principles for building wealth and creating long-term happiness. The Almanack of Naval Ravikant is a collection of Naval’s wisdom and experience from the last 10 years, shared as a curation of his most insightful interviews and poignant reflections. This isn’t a how-to book, or a step-by-step gimmick. Instead, through Naval’s own words, you will learn how to walk your own unique path toward a happier, wealthier life.
-
-
Narrator sucks
- De Dagarcia718 en 03-25-21
De: Eric Jorgenson, y otros
-
Waste Land
- A World in Permanent Crisis
- De: Robert D. Kaplan
- Narrado por: Robert Petkoff
- Duración: 6 h y 42 m
- Versión completa
-
General
-
Narración:
-
Historia
We are entering a new era of global cataclysm in which the world faces a deadly mix of war, climate change, great power rivalry, rapid technological advancement, the end of both monarchy and empire, and countless other dangers. In Waste Land, Robert D. Kaplan, geopolitical expert and author of more than twenty books on world affairs, incisively explains how we got here and where we are going.
-
-
Climate / Population Alarmism in a Mask
- De ElovesK en 02-07-25
De: Robert D. Kaplan
-
How Economics Explains the World
- A Short History of Humanity
- De: Andrew Leigh
- Narrado por: Stephen Graybill
- Duración: 5 h y 19 m
- Versión completa
-
General
-
Narración:
-
Historia
This small book indeed tells a big story. It is the story of capitalism–of how our market system developed. It is the story of the discipline of economics, and some of the key figures who formed it. And it is the story of how economic forces have shaped world history. Why didn’t Africa colonize Europe instead of the other way around? What happened when countries erected trade and immigration barriers in the 1930s? Why did the Allies win World War II? You’ll find answers to these questions and more in How Economics Explains the World.
-
-
Horrible, It is like Ray Dalio’s gibberish
- De Robert Elliott en 05-02-25
De: Andrew Leigh
-
Never Enough
- From Barista to Billionaire
- De: Andrew Wilkinson
- Narrado por: Luke Daniels
- Duración: 8 h y 45 m
- Versión completa
-
General
-
Narración:
-
Historia
Once a barista in a small cafe making $6.50 an hour, Andrew Wilkinson built a business valued at over a billion dollars by the time he was 36—and yet, his path to success was anything but a straight line. In Never Enough, Wilkinson pulls back the curtain on the lives of the ultra-rich, sharing insights into building a successful business that has been called a “Berkshire Hathaway, but for internet companies,” and a surprising first-person account of what it's actually like to become a billionaire.
-
-
Paying it forward and backward
- De Robert ONeill en 07-28-24
De: Andrew Wilkinson
Las personas que vieron esto también vieron...
-
Playing with Reality
- How Games Have Shaped Our World
- De: Kelly Clancy
- Narrado por: Patty Nieman
- Duración: 11 h y 39 m
- Versión completa
-
General
-
Narración:
-
Historia
We play games to learn about the world, to understand our minds and the minds of others, and to make predictions about the future. Games are an essential aspect of humanity and a powerful tool for modeling reality. They’re also a lot of fun. But games can be dangerous, especially when we mistake the model worlds of games for reality itself and let gamification co-opt human decision making. Playing with Reality explores the riveting history of games since the Enlightenment.
-
-
Fluidity of concept to reality explanation from the author
- De Rony exantus en 01-06-25
De: Kelly Clancy
-
The Art of Uncertainty
- How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck
- De: David Spiegelhalter
- Narrado por: David Spiegelhalter
- Duración: 10 h y 51 m
- Versión completa
-
General
-
Narración:
-
Historia
Renowned statistician David Spiegelhalter shows how we can become better at dealing with what we don't know to make smarter choices in a world so full of puzzling variables. In lucid, lively prose, Spiegelhalter guides us through the principles of probability, illustrating how they can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to sports to climate change forecasts.
-
-
Terrific
- De Roger March en 04-01-25
-
How Economics Explains the World
- A Short History of Humanity
- De: Andrew Leigh
- Narrado por: Stephen Graybill
- Duración: 5 h y 19 m
- Versión completa
-
General
-
Narración:
-
Historia
This small book indeed tells a big story. It is the story of capitalism–of how our market system developed. It is the story of the discipline of economics, and some of the key figures who formed it. And it is the story of how economic forces have shaped world history. Why didn’t Africa colonize Europe instead of the other way around? What happened when countries erected trade and immigration barriers in the 1930s? Why did the Allies win World War II? You’ll find answers to these questions and more in How Economics Explains the World.
-
-
Horrible, It is like Ray Dalio’s gibberish
- De Robert Elliott en 05-02-25
De: Andrew Leigh
-
The Art of Statistics
- How to Learn from Data
- De: David Spiegelhalter
- Narrado por: Jonathan Davis
- Duración: 9 h y 1 m
- Versión completa
-
General
-
Narración:
-
Historia
Statistics are everywhere, as integral to science as they are to business, and in the popular media hundreds of times a day. In this age of big data, a basic grasp of statistical literacy is more important than ever if we want to separate the fact from the fiction, the ostentatious embellishments from the raw evidence - and even more so if we hope to participate in the future, rather than being simple bystanders.
-
-
very good statistics overview
- De Tom en 11-29-19
-
The WEIRDest People in the World
- How the West Became Psychologically Peculiar and Particularly Prosperous
- De: Joseph Henrich
- Narrado por: Korey Jackson
- Duración: 19 h y 3 m
- Versión completa
-
General
-
Narración:
-
Historia
In The WEIRDest People in the World, Joseph Henrich draws on cutting-edge research in anthropology, psychology, economics, and evolutionary biology to explore these questions and more. He illuminates the origins and evolution of family structures, marriage, and religion, and the profound impact these cultural transformations had on human psychology. Mapping these shifts through ancient history and late antiquity, Henrich reveals that the most fundamental institutions of kinship and marriage changed dramatically under pressure from the Roman Catholic Church.
-
-
Lots of mispronounced words
- De Phil F en 10-24-20
De: Joseph Henrich
-
Dark Wire
- The Incredible True Story of the Largest Sting Operation Ever
- De: Joseph Cox
- Narrado por: Peter Ganim
- Duración: 11 h y 40 m
- Versión completa
-
General
-
Narración:
-
Historia
Beginning in 2018, a powerful app for secure communications, called Anom, began to take root among drug dealers and other criminals. It had extraordinary safeguards to keep out prying eyes--the power to quickly wipe data, voice-masking technology, and more. It was better than other apps popular among organized crime syndicates, except for one thing: it was secretly run by law enforcement. Over the next few years, the FBI, along with law enforcement partners in Australia and parts of Europe, got a front row seat to the global criminal underworld.
-
-
Amazing story
- De Katie W. en 06-08-24
De: Joseph Cox
-
Playing with Reality
- How Games Have Shaped Our World
- De: Kelly Clancy
- Narrado por: Patty Nieman
- Duración: 11 h y 39 m
- Versión completa
-
General
-
Narración:
-
Historia
We play games to learn about the world, to understand our minds and the minds of others, and to make predictions about the future. Games are an essential aspect of humanity and a powerful tool for modeling reality. They’re also a lot of fun. But games can be dangerous, especially when we mistake the model worlds of games for reality itself and let gamification co-opt human decision making. Playing with Reality explores the riveting history of games since the Enlightenment.
-
-
Fluidity of concept to reality explanation from the author
- De Rony exantus en 01-06-25
De: Kelly Clancy
-
The Art of Uncertainty
- How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck
- De: David Spiegelhalter
- Narrado por: David Spiegelhalter
- Duración: 10 h y 51 m
- Versión completa
-
General
-
Narración:
-
Historia
Renowned statistician David Spiegelhalter shows how we can become better at dealing with what we don't know to make smarter choices in a world so full of puzzling variables. In lucid, lively prose, Spiegelhalter guides us through the principles of probability, illustrating how they can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to sports to climate change forecasts.
-
-
Terrific
- De Roger March en 04-01-25
-
How Economics Explains the World
- A Short History of Humanity
- De: Andrew Leigh
- Narrado por: Stephen Graybill
- Duración: 5 h y 19 m
- Versión completa
-
General
-
Narración:
-
Historia
This small book indeed tells a big story. It is the story of capitalism–of how our market system developed. It is the story of the discipline of economics, and some of the key figures who formed it. And it is the story of how economic forces have shaped world history. Why didn’t Africa colonize Europe instead of the other way around? What happened when countries erected trade and immigration barriers in the 1930s? Why did the Allies win World War II? You’ll find answers to these questions and more in How Economics Explains the World.
-
-
Horrible, It is like Ray Dalio’s gibberish
- De Robert Elliott en 05-02-25
De: Andrew Leigh
-
The Art of Statistics
- How to Learn from Data
- De: David Spiegelhalter
- Narrado por: Jonathan Davis
- Duración: 9 h y 1 m
- Versión completa
-
General
-
Narración:
-
Historia
Statistics are everywhere, as integral to science as they are to business, and in the popular media hundreds of times a day. In this age of big data, a basic grasp of statistical literacy is more important than ever if we want to separate the fact from the fiction, the ostentatious embellishments from the raw evidence - and even more so if we hope to participate in the future, rather than being simple bystanders.
-
-
very good statistics overview
- De Tom en 11-29-19
-
The WEIRDest People in the World
- How the West Became Psychologically Peculiar and Particularly Prosperous
- De: Joseph Henrich
- Narrado por: Korey Jackson
- Duración: 19 h y 3 m
- Versión completa
-
General
-
Narración:
-
Historia
In The WEIRDest People in the World, Joseph Henrich draws on cutting-edge research in anthropology, psychology, economics, and evolutionary biology to explore these questions and more. He illuminates the origins and evolution of family structures, marriage, and religion, and the profound impact these cultural transformations had on human psychology. Mapping these shifts through ancient history and late antiquity, Henrich reveals that the most fundamental institutions of kinship and marriage changed dramatically under pressure from the Roman Catholic Church.
-
-
Lots of mispronounced words
- De Phil F en 10-24-20
De: Joseph Henrich
-
Dark Wire
- The Incredible True Story of the Largest Sting Operation Ever
- De: Joseph Cox
- Narrado por: Peter Ganim
- Duración: 11 h y 40 m
- Versión completa
-
General
-
Narración:
-
Historia
Beginning in 2018, a powerful app for secure communications, called Anom, began to take root among drug dealers and other criminals. It had extraordinary safeguards to keep out prying eyes--the power to quickly wipe data, voice-masking technology, and more. It was better than other apps popular among organized crime syndicates, except for one thing: it was secretly run by law enforcement. Over the next few years, the FBI, along with law enforcement partners in Australia and parts of Europe, got a front row seat to the global criminal underworld.
-
-
Amazing story
- De Katie W. en 06-08-24
De: Joseph Cox