
Everything Is Obvious
*Once You Know the Answer
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Narrado por:
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Duncan J. Watts
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De:
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Duncan J. Watts
Acerca de esta escucha
Why is the Mona Lisa the most famous painting in the world? Why did Facebook succeed when other social-networking sites failed? Did the surge in Iraq really lead to less violence? How much can CEO’s impact the performance of their companies? And does higher pay incentivize people to work hard?
If you think the answers to these questions are a matter of common sense, think again. As sociologist and network science pioneer Duncan Watts explains in this provocative book, the explanations that we give for the outcomes that we observe in life - explanation that seem obvious once we know the answer - are less useful than they seem.
Drawing on the latest scientific research, along with a wealth of historical and contemporary examples, Watts shows how common sense reasoning and history conspire to mislead us into believing that we understand more about the world of human behavior than we do; and in turn, why attempts to predict, manage, or manipulate social and economic systems so often go awry.
It seems obvious, for example, that people respond to incentives; yet policy makers and managers alike frequently fail to anticipate how people will respond to the incentives they create. Social trends often seem to have been driven by certain influential people; yet marketers have been unable to identify these “influencers” in advance. And although successful products or companies always seem in retrospect to have succeeded because of their unique qualities, predicting the qualities of the next hit product or hot company is notoriously difficult, even for experienced professionals.
Only by understanding how and when common sense fails, Watts argues, can we improve how we plan for the future, as well as understand the present - an argument that has important implications in politics, business, and marketing, as well as in science and everyday life.
PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying PDF will be available in your Audible Library along with the audio.
©2011 Duncan J. Watts (P)2011 Random House AudioLos oyentes también disfrutaron...
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Reseñas de la Crítica
"Every once in a while, a book comes along that forces us to re-examine what we know and how we know it. This is one of those books. And while it is not always pleasurable to realize the many ways in which we are wrong, it is useful to figure out the cases where our intuitions fail us." (Dan Ariely, James B. Duke Professor of Behavioral Economics at Duke University, and New York Times best-selling author of Predictably Irrational)
“A deep and insightful book that is a joy to read. There are new ideas on every page, and none of them is obvious!” (Daniel Gilbert, Professor of Psychology at Harvard University and author of Stumbling on Happiness)
"A brilliant account of why, for every hard question, there’s a common sense answer that’s simple, seductive, and spectacularly wrong. If you are suspicious of pop sociology, rogue economics, and didactic history - or, more importantly, if you aren’t! - Everything Is Obvious is necessary reading. It will literally change the way you think." (Eric Klinenberg, Professor of Sociology. New York University)
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Do you ever have the feeling that your friend isn’t telling you the whole story? Or that your colleague’s answer doesn’t quite add up? Whether in your personal or social life, professional life, or on the news or media, sorting the lies from the truth can be exhausting and make you feel constantly on edge. In the latest installment of the Surrounded by Idiots series, Thomas Erikson shows you how to identify and deal with the liars in your life.
De: Thomas Erikson
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Factfulness
- Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World - and Why Things Are Better Than You Think
- De: Hans Rosling, Anna Rosling Rönnlund, Ola Rosling
- Narrado por: Richard Harries
- Duración: 8 h y 51 m
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Factfulness: The stress-reducing habit of carrying only opinions for which you have strong supporting facts. When asked simple questions about global trends - what percentage of the world's population live in poverty; why the world's population is increasing; how many girls finish school - we systematically get the answers wrong. In Factfulness, professor of international health and global TED phenomenon Hans Rosling, together with his two longtime collaborators, Anna and Ola, offers a radical new explanation of why this happens.
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Great Read not for Listening
- De carlos gomez en 06-01-18
De: Hans Rosling, y otros
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No Hard Feelings
- Owning Intense Emotions (Before They Own You)
- De: Liz Fosslien, Mollie West Duffy
- Narrado por: Liz Fosslien, Mollie West Duffy
- Duración: 4 h y 47 m
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The modern workplace can be an emotional minefield, filled with confusing power structures and unwritten rules. We're expected to be authentic, but not too authentic. Professional, but not stiff. Friendly, but not an oversharer. Easier said than done! Our goal in this book is to teach you how to figure out which emotions to toss, which to keep to yourself, and which to express in order to be both happier and more effective.
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Maybe not the best for audible...
- De Rebecca Wilcox en 08-01-19
De: Liz Fosslien, y otros
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Expert Political Judgment
- How Good is it? How can We Know?
- De: Philip E. Tetlock
- Narrado por: Anthony Haden Salerno
- Duración: 9 h y 48 m
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The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This audiobook fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future.
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Five-star book, one-star reading
- De Christian Tarsney en 01-23-19
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You Are Not So Smart
- Why You Have Too Many Friends on Facebook, Why Your Memory Is Mostly Fiction, and 46 Other Ways You're Deluding Yourself
- De: David McRaney
- Narrado por: Don Hagen
- Duración: 8 h y 24 m
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An entertaining illumination of the stupid beliefs that make us feel wise. You believe you are a rational, logical being who sees the world as it really is, but journalist David McRaney is here to tell you that you're as deluded as the rest of us. But that's OK - delusions keep us sane. You Are Not So Smart is a celebration of self-delusion. It's like a psychology class, with all the boring parts taken out, and with no homework. Based on the popular blog of the same name, You Are Not So Smart collects more than 46 of the lies we tell ourselves everyday.
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Covers a lot of old territory
- De Sarah Dumoulin en 07-19-12
De: David McRaney
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When to Walk Away
- Finding Freedom from Toxic People
- De: Gary Thomas
- Narrado por: Gary Thomas
- Duración: 8 h y 25 m
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Your life's calling is too important to let toxic people take it away. In When to Walk Away, Gary Thomas - best-selling author of Sacred Marriage - draws from biblical and modern stories to equip you with practical insights to handle toxic people in your life and live true to your God-given purpose.
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Don’t be trapped by the idea that a good Christian just has to endure toxic abuse. You can walk away.
- De S White en 02-08-20
De: Gary Thomas
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The Science of Self-Discipline
- The Willpower, Mental Toughness, and Self-Control to Resist Temptation and Achieve Your Goals
- De: Peter Hollins
- Narrado por: Peter Hollins
- Duración: 3 h y 18 m
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Your best intentions are not enough. Learn how to scientifically engineer a disciplined existence, become relentless, and never give up. Whatever you want in your life, self-discipline is the missing piece. Goals will remain dreams if you make the mistake of relying on motivation and your best drawn plans. The Science of Self-Discipline is a deep look into what allows us to resist our worst impulses and simply execute, achieve, produce, and focus. Every principle is scientifically-driven and dissected to as be actionable and helpful as possible. You'll learn how top performers consistently exercise self-discipline, as well as what drives us on an instinctual, psychological level to act.
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Same old tired rehash of studies and common sense
- De A. Molnar en 07-12-18
De: Peter Hollins
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Brief Answers to the Big Questions
- De: Stephen Hawking, Eddie Redmayne - foreword
- Narrado por: Garrick Hagon, Lucy Hawking, Ben Whishaw
- Duración: 4 h y 51 m
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Stephen Hawking not only unraveled some of the universe's greatest mysteries but also believed science plays a critical role in fixing problems here on Earth. Now, as we face immense challenges on our planet - including climate change, the threat of nuclear war, and the development of artificial intelligence - he turns his attention to the most urgent issues facing us. Will humanity survive? Should we colonize space? Does God exist? These are just a few of the questions Hawking addresses in this wide-ranging, passionately argued final book from one of the greatest minds in history.
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A wonderful, wonderful listening experience
- De La Traviata en 10-16-18
De: Stephen Hawking, y otros
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Sorry I'm Late, I Didn't Want to Come
- One Introvert's Year of Saying Yes
- De: Jessica Pan
- Narrado por: Jessica Pan
- Duración: 8 h y 52 m
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What would happen if a shy introvert lived like a gregarious extrovert for one year? If she knowingly and willingly put herself in perilous social situations that she’d normally avoid at all costs? Writer Jessica Pan intends to find out. With the help of various extrovert mentors, Jessica sets up a series of personal challenges (talk to strangers, perform stand-up comedy, host a dinner party, travel alone, make friends on the road, and much, much worse) to explore whether living like an extrovert can teach her lessons that might improve the quality of her life.
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Encouraging memoir: Sorry, cheer
- De Aaron Menz en 07-03-23
De: Jessica Pan
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Unlimited Memory
- How to Use Advanced Learning Strategies to Learn Faster, Remember More and Be More Productive
- De: Kevin Horsley
- Narrado por: Dan Culhane
- Duración: 2 h y 28 m
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Do you ever feel like you're too busy, too stressed, or just too distracted to concentrate and get work done? In Unlimited Memory you'll learn how the world's best memory masters get themselves to concentrate at will, anytime they want. When you can easily focus and concentrate on the task at hand and store and recall useful information, you can easily double your productivity and eliminate wasted time, stress, and mistakes at work. In this book you'll find all the tools, strategies, and techniques you need to improve your memory.
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I don't get it
- De asher en 01-02-17
De: Kevin Horsley
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Strong Fathers, Strong Daughters
- De: Meg Meeker
- Narrado por: Coleen Marlo
- Duración: 7 h y 4 m
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Drawing on her 30 years' experience practicing pediatric and adolescent medicine, teen health expert Dr. Meg Meeker explains why an active father figure is maybe the single most important factor in a young woman's development. In this invaluable guide, Meeker shows how a father can be both counsel and protector for his daughter as she grows into a spiritually and mentally strong young woman.
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Kind of sweet, kind of preachy
- De Patrick en 07-02-17
De: Meg Meeker
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Goodbye, Things
- The New Japanese Minimalism
- De: Fumio Sasaki, Eriko Sugita - translator
- Narrado por: Keith Szarabajka
- Duración: 4 h y 32 m
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Fumio Sasaki is not an enlightened minimalism expert or organizing guru like Marie Kondo - he's just a regular guy who was stressed out and constantly comparing himself to others, until one day he decided to change his life by saying goodbye to everything he didn't absolutely need. The effects were remarkable: Sasaki gained true freedom, new focus, and a real sense of gratitude for everything around him.
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A Grounding Perspective
- De Mackenzie en 10-22-17
De: Fumio Sasaki, y otros
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Braving the Wilderness
- The Quest for True Belonging and the Courage to Stand Alone
- De: Brené Brown
- Narrado por: Brené Brown
- Duración: 4 h y 12 m
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"True belonging doesn't require us to change who we are. It requires us to be who we are." Social scientist Brené Brown, PhD, LMSW, has sparked a global conversation about the experiences that bring meaning to our lives - experiences of courage, vulnerability, love, belonging, shame, and empathy. In Braving the Wilderness, Brown redefines what it means to truly belong in an age of increased polarization.
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Actual Step-By-Step To Authenticity!
- De Gillian en 09-14-17
De: Brené Brown
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What Got You Here Won't Get You There
- How Successful People Become Even More Successful
- De: Marshall Goldsmith, Mark Reiter
- Narrado por: Marc Cashman
- Duración: 9 h y 39 m
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What's holding you back? Marshall Goldsmith is an expert at helping global leaders overcome their (sometimes unconscious) annoying habits and attaining a higher level of success. His one-on-one coaching comes with a six-figure price tag. But with this audiobook, you'll get Marshall's great advice without the hefty fee!
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Good book, but didn't lend to the audio format
- De Carla en 03-21-11
De: Marshall Goldsmith, y otros
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Rising Strong
- How the Ability to Reset Transforms the Way We Live, Love, Parent, and Lead
- De: Brené Brown
- Narrado por: Brené Brown
- Duración: 8 h y 51 m
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Social scientist Brené Brown has ignited a global conversation on courage, vulnerability, shame, and worthiness. Her pioneering work uncovered a profound truth: Vulnerability—the willingness to show up and be seen with no guarantee of outcome—is the only path to more love, belonging, creativity, and joy. But living a brave life is not always easy: We are, inevitably, going to stumble and fall.
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A Gem, But Not Her Best
- De Gillian en 08-26-15
De: Brené Brown
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Being You
- A New Science of Consciousness
- De: Anil Seth
- Narrado por: Anil Seth
- Duración: 9 h y 46 m
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What does it mean to “be you” - that is, to have a specific, conscious experience of the world around you and yourself within it? There may be no more elusive or fascinating question. Historically, humanity has considered the nature of consciousness to be a primarily spiritual or philosophical inquiry, but scientific research is now mapping out compelling biological theories and explanations for consciousness and selfhood.
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Not engaging, nothing new
- De Tristan en 11-22-21
De: Anil Seth
Lo que los oyentes dicen sobre Everything Is Obvious
Con calificación alta para:
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- Stephen
- 06-15-11
Thought provoking
Duncan Watts is a physics professor turned sociology professor. I was intrigued by the idea of someone who could bring 'hard science' approaches to sociology. You might want to read the last chapter first as he summarizes the differences between sociological and hard science research. However, this is done in a most positive way - he points out that sociologic studies are important and that there are means and methods that can be used and developed to achieve better understanding into human behavior.
His insights are very thought provoking. He points out that many aspects of sociological studies that are generally not considered. For instance, we have a way of explaining history after we already know the outcome. Was the surge in Iraq really responsible for turning around that conflict or was it some combination of other factors such as rebuidling infrastructure, training new police, training new Iraqi military, more experienced government etc. There's really no way to tell because we can't run an 'experiment' to see what would happen if there was no surge...
Sociologist often fall upon what they term common sense explanations....but these explanations only work well when you already know the answer.
This is a great addition to the series Outliers and Predictably Irrational. I look forward to the contributions of his approach into important social issues.
I would have given it 5 stars, but I found it unfortunate that he often did not credit some of the work he cited. I understand that this is not a scientific paper but some of the more important and lengthy examples he cites should have been credited.
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- Dan Fisher
- 10-27-11
Brilliant and Self-Read
Love the fact that Mr. Watts read this himself, gives it so much more texture than most. And more importantly, his insights and ideas are brilliant, fun to listen to and think about.
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- B. K. Lord
- 08-20-17
Its obvious
This is a great book for anyone who does not understand why others cannot understand the obvious truth. For each truth there are equal and opposite truths based on the observers own experiences.
Great take on anthropology and why humans do what they do and think what they think. Great book to get you thinking.
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- Amazon Customer
- 04-18-12
Listen to this book and rethink everything!
I had not heard of Duncan Watts when I first listened to this book... but since I've noticed he's been sited in several other books I've read recently. If this book doesn't change the way you view the world you are a more evolved person than I. Between reading this book, and 'How to Measure Anything' this year, I feel like my mind has been turned upside down.
Read Duncan Watts, read Douglas Hubbard, then go out and change the world!
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- Andy
- 04-17-11
We're not as smart as we think we are
Watts lays out a solid survey about why, in many cases, the reasons we think cause certain things to happen, just may not be the case. Solid narration.
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- Joshua Kim
- 06-10-12
Yes Sociology
It's about time a sociologist wrote an amazing and accessible book for a non-specialist audience. Everything Is Obvious: *Once You Know the Answer by Duncan J. Watts is that amazing book.
For too long, the economists, psychologists, historians and evolutionary psychologists have owned the popular non-fiction category. No longer. Sociology is back!
And what a sociologist. Check out the Wikipedia entry on the author:
"Duncan J. Watts (born 1971) is an Australian researcher and a principal research scientist at Yahoo! Research, where he directs the Human Social Dynamics group. He is also an external faculty member of the Santa Fe Institute and a former professor of sociology at Columbia University, where he headed the Collective Dynamics Group."
Or his list of publications from his Yahoo Research page - (which brings up 1,734 results).
The dude is barely 40.
Now I'm biased to be psyched about a great popular non-fiction book written by a sociologist, as I am a (somewhat lapsed) member of this tribe. For a while now, it seems as if the evolutionary psychologists, the biologists, the behavioral economists, and economic historians have been debating, discussing and writing about the most interesting ideas, theories and trends.
Sure, we have Sudhir Venkatesh (Gang Leader for a Day: A Rogue Sociologist Takes to the Streets) but nobody like Dan Ariely, Richard Florida, Steven Levitt, Tyler Cowen, Simon Schama, Niall Ferguson, Leonard Mlodinow, Sam Gosling, Steven Pinker, Ian Ayres, or Daniel Gilbert. (Wow…all males in this list - taken from my Audible list of academics who have written popular books that I really liked. Not sure if I like what this says about my own lack of diversity in what I read).
The big idea underpinning "Everything is Obvious" is that the massive amounts of data created by Web 2.0 search, networking and communications platforms such as Twitter, Facebook, Facebook and Yahoo gives social scientists the tools to test the relationship between individual and group preferences, actions and beliefs. According to Watts, sociology is due for a renaissance, as the Web can be utilized as a tool to run social experiments that were previously not possible with traditional survey techniques.
Watts has run a number of these experiments, which have the common theme of calling into question commonly held beliefs about the origins and catalysts for a range of trends and outcomes. For instance, Watts takes on Malcolm Gladwell's conclusions in The Tipping Point that a small group of "influentials" can start and drive consumer trends.
Every Sociology 101 course (a class I've taught more times than I care to remember) should assign "Everything is Obvious". Watts provides a nice synthesis of the main tenets of sociology (from Durkheim to Parsons), moving fluently between the worlds of sociological theory, technology, and popular culture. We might find that the number of sociology majors will increase if we let this book lose in our courses.
What other companies have a resident sociologist? My respect for Yahoo has dramatically increased.
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- chris lann
- 11-02-18
Great book
This is a great book. I enjoyed it quite a bit. However it could’ve been about an hour shorter. There are several parts that have a little too much rambling and talking in circles other than that it was very interesting and informative
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- Jozef
- 01-15-17
Very powerful, great stories, easy to listen
Highly recommended to all startup founders, politicians, managers, executives, leaders to understand polarity of things and situations.
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- Anthony
- 04-20-11
The best book since Freakonomics
Few books have immediate impacts that change the way a student of the world looks upon it, however, this is one of those few treasures. In college, Freakonomics and its way of thinking, was a direct influence in how I wrote my senior thesis. However, Everything is Obvious was truly the book I was waiting for.
After college, I listened to The Tipping Point because of its hype, and I always seemed to think something was missing; perhaps something rubbed me the wrong way about the narrative. Duncan Watts illustrates precisely what Malcolm Gladwell’s book was missing and describes the key points behind his faux conclusions.
Watts dives into the social side of reasoning and shows that life is far more inconclusive than economists or physicists would like to think they are. He goes through some of his studies that churn the mind the same way Freakonomics does. It is a definite read and a great work of insight to both business students and professionals who hate when people say “x business came to a ‘tipping point’ and became successful.”
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- ChiKeeper
- 04-01-15
Common Sense Isn't Enough
As a fan of Freakonomics, Predictably Irrational and Thinking Fast and Slow (among many others of the cognitive ilk) at first I thought this title might not have much new information for me. Indeed, most of the topics covered are familiar ground for me. Still, the social tack taken here really cements how relying solely on common sense can get you into trouble. Clear, articulate yet never dull. Great stuff.
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