• Rates, Risk, and the Return of Discipline

  • May 7 2025
  • Duración: 1 h y 2 m
  • Podcast

Rates, Risk, and the Return of Discipline

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  • What the Debt Markets Are Telling Us — and Why Sponsors Should Listen Insights from Lisa Pendergast, Executive Director, CREFC In today’s capital markets, where debt is more expensive, less available, and slower to move, understanding how credit flows work has become just as important as understanding your deal. That’s why I sat down with Lisa Pendergast, Executive Director of the Commercial Real Estate Finance Council (CREFC) – a central figure in the $5 trillion CRE debt markets – to ask what the institutions upstream are seeing, and what that means for those of us operating on the front lines of equity, operations, and acquisitions. A Market in Holding Pattern Lisa noted that while Q4 2024 sentiment among debt market participants had turned unexpectedly upbeat, that optimism collapsed in Q1 2025. The cause? Policy uncertainty, rate volatility, and a reemergence of geopolitical and trade risks, most notably the return of tariffs under the Trump administration. The result is hesitation. From the largest bond desks to the average sponsor refinancing a stabilized deal, participants are stuck in wait-and-see mode. "When there's uncertainty," Lisa explained, "things just stop." The Math Has Changed Lisa pointed to a roughly 300-400 basis point gap between legacy loan coupons and current market rates. Even where property fundamentals are stable, that rate delta is making refinancings difficult, especially when higher cap rates have also eroded asset valuations. The implication: more equity must be written into every deal, or the loan won’t pencil. This is the backdrop to rising CMBS delinquencies, particularly in office and, increasingly, multifamily markets where excess supply and rent softening have converged. Lenders aren’t panicking, but they are requiring more diligence, more equity, and more confidence in borrowers. Why Sponsors Should Watch the CMBS Market For sponsors who don't interact directly with capital markets, Lisa offered a critical point: trends in CMBS spreads and issuance are leading indicators. When investors demand higher spreads (i.e., more compensation for risk), lenders raise rates, reduce proceeds, or pull back altogether. She explained the distinction between conduit deals (pools of smaller loans) and SASB structures (large, single-sponsor or single-asset bonds). The conduit market, a lifeline for mid-sized deals, has slowed dramatically. That signals tightening liquidity for smaller sponsors or niche asset classes. Meanwhile, large SASB deals continue but only with strong assets, strong borrowers, and deep-pocketed equity partners. The Regulatory Horizon Lisa also addressed deregulation under Trump 2.0. While she hasn't seen core rules like Dodd-Frank or the Volcker Rule reversed outright, she’s watching how new leadership at key agencies may soften enforcement. Dodd-Frank was enacted after the 2008 financial crisis to rein in excessive risk-taking by lenders and increase transparency in financial markets. The Volcker Rule, a key provision, restricts banks from making speculative bets with their own capital, especially in risky vehicles like real estate-backed securities. For sponsors, the concern isn't just about policy in Washington, it’s about what happens to lending standards and capital stability when those policies shift. Lisa’s concern is practical: regulatory whiplash, rules swinging left, then right, then back again, as we’ve seen with tariffs, undermines confidence and can freeze the flow of capital. When lenders aren’t sure what rules they’ll be operating under next quarter, they hesitate and that caution trickles down to your loan terms. Sponsors should pay attention here. When policy becomes unpredictable, capital becomes cautious and that shows up in the terms you’re offered, or whether your deal gets financed at all. Final Takeaway: The Debt Market Has Grown Up Lisa struck a cautiously optimistic tone. Compared to the run-up to the 2008 crash, today’s market is more disciplined. Underwriting remains sound, even in a difficult environment. But that doesn’t mean lenders will stretch. If you’re a sponsor today, her message is clear: capital is out there—but it’s selective, it’s expensive, and it’s scrutinizing every deal. You need to understand the market forces upstream to be able to compete downstream. *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing. With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today’s volatile real estate landscape. You’ll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets ...
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