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On November 5, 2024, Donald Trump defeated Vice President Kamala Harris to secure his position as the 47th president of the United States. But when it came time for the inauguration, some Trump supporters remained skeptical. They remembered him bending over for Fauci in 2020. They remembered his horrific staffing choices during his first term, many of whom made enormous sums of money by publicly turning on him. They were worried this would be the same old, same old. Within a day, even his biggest skeptic had to concede that they were wrong. The winning had started and still has yet to stop.

The experts had it wrong. Spectacularly wrong. Election Night 2024 stunned the nation—maps bleeding red in ways no network model saw coming. CNN stammered, MSNBC scrambled, and Lichtman’s vaunted 13 Keys collapsed under the weight of a new political reality. One forecast stood alone in the chaos: The Five-Point Forecast. It didn’t just predict the outcome—it explained it. This is the electrifying autopsy of a broken prediction industry—and the rise of a model that dared to put voters, not pundits, at the center. In Why Trump Won, you’ll witness the fall of academic orthodoxy and...