Matt Carroll

Disappointing 20-20 Hindsight

Revisado: 04-26-25

Definitely some good reporting and detail here - but the account fundamentally lacks nuance and takes the typical journalistic MMQB route - of course the outcome was so obvious, etc.

This telling shows no respect for the mysteries associated with persuading voters, and the incredible closeness of all 3 Trump elections. It almost lapses into “Trump won a mandate” territory.

When elections are this close - blame needs to be be apportioned much more carefully and artfully.

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Big Picture Thinking is Not What We Need

Revisado: 04-20-25

To thought leaders/pundits/Substack authors - the 30,000 foot view and related generalizations are not helpful and do no lead to change. Execution - as noted in this book - is paramount. And execution is specific to each community/government/kind of challenge.

These ideas are mildly interesting - though already expressed and in the discourse for the most part - but they are not productive. Bottom line - except for the benefit of the authors and the opportunity to do podcasts, this book simply did not need to be written. Change comes with the specifics and implementation, not vague notions.

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Indispensable Perspective

Revisado: 09-03-24

This is a very enlightening book. It provides really interesting analysis of probabilistic thinking and a bunch of other related concepts. I think you need to know these things to understand our world today. And this is unique insight in general - in my mind, that is why Silver is so valuable - he truly attempts to understand things as they are, which is no small goal in a society where everyone has an axe to grind.

The “but” is about probabilistic thinking in general - it’s odd that those who are so focused on data - not referring to Silver himself so much as other characters he talks about - are willing to make “probabilistic” bets with very little data, setting odds that are at times of varying levels of ridiculousness (P(doom), come on, or the guy talking about a 90% vs a 93% chance, while making up the numbers in his head.)

This is why EV calculations are often absurd - it’s just silly to talk about an outcome with a 1% chance of a great success (assuming you even know that) and calculate its EV on that basis, This is not reality, and EV extremism is why we have SBF and other bizarre players in this strange universe.

However, it is vital to understand these topics, and I truly appreciate the exercise of probabilistic thinking (can lead to good analysis and conversations). But like most Riverian takes, this book leaves out the reality of the less advantaged and what to do about it (though Silver makes some passing comments), and you are left with a really strange playground of wealthy misfits playing games (because there are enough of them) in an attempt to find meaning in their lives.

In the end - this is what I think living “On the Edge” is really about - just one collection of coping mechanisms for dealing with the challenges of life for those with access to capital. Unfortunately, they are using their skills and brainpower to focus on financial profit (not solely, I get it), but that’s how things work.

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Definitive Vietnam Book

Revisado: 06-06-24

Must read - thorough, thoughtful and fair storytelling and analysis. Should be required reading for those in positions of power who may face repeating mistakes of the past.

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Nobody Like Wolff

Revisado: 10-07-23

Fascinating must read from one of our most insightful and provocative writers. He reaches a level of understanding that is unusual and always entertaining.

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Indispensable Reality Check

Revisado: 10-02-23

Anyone who wants to create meaningful change in public policy should read this book. It fairly critiques aspects of social justice movements without overdoing it. We should all be looking for the most effective and concrete strategies to address our challenges.

(The narrator is also excellent, noticeably skilled, one of the best of I have heard.)

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Horrifying

Revisado: 08-10-23

A dismaying portrayal of an industry searching for the lowest common denominator, reveling in and living for absurd images and concepts (what color is the dress) and spending countless hours and billions of dollars merely to enable time wasting, but doing so as a professional objective.

One must ask what is wrong with intelligent people who would devote their lives to such meaningless endeavors or writing about them. Greed? Deficient character or values? It is hard to say.

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Useful Information

Revisado: 06-27-23

Very well done, great window into e-commerce and this particular rivalry. My takeaway on Wal Mart is that you can’t really do brick/mortar and online sales in a mutually beneficial way for both functions. Worth reading.

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Gripping, Important Work

Revisado: 02-20-23

Extremely meaningful, detailed coverage of the challenges of child welfare work through the experience of one large family.

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Must Read

Revisado: 01-08-23

Incredibly relevant and useful account of the semiconductor system and what it means to the works.

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