OYENTE

Artur Świętanowski

  • 3
  • opiniones
  • 0
  • votos útiles
  • 17
  • calificaciones

An attempt at generalisation of "non-generalisable

Total
2 out of 5 stars
Ejecución
4 out of 5 stars
Historia
1 out of 5 stars

Revisado: 09-16-24

A really laborious experience - reading it now may be as painful, as writing it was. A myriad of facts, followed by semi-generalisation, further followed by statements reflecting the existence of cases that do not follow the generalisation. Many of the semi-generalised observations tend to sound really trivial. Like "a petrostate that has a lot of money thanks to oil sales, has more to spend on <insert spending type>".

Hard to see a common thread of thought. But the subject matter may readily explain it - the "petrostates" are so diverse, that generalisations must fail, or may be true for small subsets only.

If there's a point this book makes, it's really mostly the one above: don't expect a single simple rule that will describe petrostates.

Se ha producido un error. Vuelve a intentarlo dentro de unos minutos.

Has calificado esta reseña.

Reportaste esta reseña

Good book on psychology, poor on risk management

Total
4 out of 5 stars
Ejecución
5 out of 5 stars
Historia
4 out of 5 stars

Revisado: 01-15-24

Decades of very good and enlightening research on fallacies of human cognition summed up into a pretty concise book. A lot of things I didn't know or at leas not for sure. That's my non-professional rating of the majority of the content.

Now, to the professional assessment from the risk management perspective.

In many places, one can be led to thinking, that rational humans should base their decision on probabilities using only the expected values. Which is not stated in so many words, but it's alluded to or suggested in many places. And it's also plain wrong. Both on a common sense level and in practical terms. To state just one example: catastrophic risks are not measured this way at all - esp. not by professional risk takers, a.k.a. insurers (who get paid for taking some of other peoples' risks and make a living out of it).

I think the author actually knows that this oversimplification is untrue. Nevertheless, the reader may not always be sure - or may be downright mislead by the wording, the framing or the examples given.

So use at your own risk. I did find it interesting and useful overall. And I hope I was not mislead in any sense.

Se ha producido un error. Vuelve a intentarlo dentro de unos minutos.

Has calificado esta reseña.

Reportaste esta reseña

Big promise, not much delivery

Total
2 out of 5 stars
Ejecución
4 out of 5 stars
Historia
2 out of 5 stars

Revisado: 11-04-23

I don't rate reading this book as a complete waste of time, but it definitely was not the time best spent.

The author has a few interesting ideas to share, and if you wait out through other ramblings and repetitions, then ignore the non-factual facts, you might find those few ideas quite interesting and possibly new.

My major complaints are (a) the length of the book is disproportionate to the real content, (b) some of the "facts" are just myths, misinformation or common beliefs, debunked thoroughly many times over by more knowledgeable folks, (c) rather out of date understanding of the economy, or role of energy. As one might imagine (b) and (c) do not help support the major theses of the book. As far as I noticed, the information on the economy, the energy industry and some history - esp. of Eastern Europe - are really questionable, to put it mildly. What worries me more, is possible other inaccuracies that I may have missed...

Also, the author might really need to write a separate book about his personal anxieties instead of pushing them shamelessly into every chapter - with little relationship to the matter at hand. I get it - anyone has a right to express themselves, but I did not buy this book to find out how the author feels about himself in society.

Se ha producido un error. Vuelve a intentarlo dentro de unos minutos.

Has calificado esta reseña.

Reportaste esta reseña

adbl_web_global_use_to_activate_webcro805_stickypopup